TV Money Uncertainty Impacts MLB Free Agency, May Be Reason Why Signings Have Been Slow

It's been a bizarre start to the free agency period in the MLB offseason.

Shohei Ohtani was the biggest individual free agent in the sport's history, expected to command a record salary and a large number of bidders. And sure enough, after a fairly lengthy bidding process, he signed with the Los Angeles Dodgers for a record 10-year, $700 million deal.

That was widely expected to open the spending flood gates. Teams waiting for Ohtani to make his choice now had certainty to go after other players. And players who were waiting for Ohtani to set the market now knew what the market would pay.

But it hasn't worked out that way at all.

The Arizona Diamondbacks signed Lourdes Gurriel to a 3-year, $42 million deal ... and that's been about it across MLB. Sure, Yoshinobu Yamamoto has yet to decide between the Yankees, Mets, Dodgers, Red Sox, Giants or Phillies. But Cody Bellinger, Matt Chapman, Blake Snell and Josh Hader are all big name players who have yet to sign. So what's going on?

We may finally have an answer, and as always, it comes back to money.

CHICAGO, IL - JUNE 17: Cody Bellinger of the Chicago Cubs takes the field in a game against the Baltimore Orioles at Wrigley Field on June 17, 2023 in Chicago, Illinois. (Photo by Matt Dirksen/Getty Images)

MLB Spending Has Slowed Due To TV Uncertainty

Last season, Diamond Sports Group, the owners of the Bally Sports networks, declared bankruptcy. That set off a chain reaction of events, leading to several teams taking over control of their own broadcast rights.

The San Diego Padres and Arizona Diamondbacks were both previously partnered with Bally Sports, before MLB took over locally televised games at various points in 2023. But nearly half the league has been affected to some extent by the uncertainty around what to expect from Diamond/Bally financially.

MLB recently announced they'd come to an arrangement with Diamond for some teams in 2024, but there's virtually no guarantees moving forward. Streaming services could get involved, and ESPN reported that the league believes a national package could be tremendously valuable and finally eliminate blackouts.

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But for now, many owners aren't sure how much money to expect from local television rights in 2025 and beyond. So it's, understandably, hard to gauge whether or not to commit to giving Bellinger or Snell or Hader $100-200 million over the next 5-10 years. Especially for the mid-level teams that aren't competing at the financial level of the Dodgers or Yankees.

For a sport that struggles to break through to the national conversation, a weak free agency period isn't helpful. But that's likely what MLB is facing, with staggered signings, potentially dragging out into January or February. It seemed like the Ohtani sweepstakes were taking forever to conclude. Turns out he may have been one of the fastest to sign.