Is It Time To Start Worrying About Fernando Tatis Jr?

The San Diego Padres currently sit at 26-25, a very average start for a team with a high payroll and high expectations. And part of the explanation for their underwhelming performance so far has been the team's best player: Fernando Tatis Jr.

With the season nearly a third of the way finished, Tatis has hit just .246, with a middling .329 on base percentage and woeful .411 slugging percentage. That batting line is just 18% better than the league average, compared to the heights of his 2021 season when he was 58% better than average.

It'd be easy to dismiss his start as small sample size noise, but in 2023, Tatis was technically even worse. With just a .322 on base percentage and .449 slugging percentage, he was only 13% better than the league average, considering the higher run scoring environment last season. Combine the two seasons and Tatis has hit just .254/.324/.439. That's a .762 OPS and just 14% better than league average.

READ: Padres Manager Very Unhappy Pitchers Are Trying To Throw Inside On Fernando Tatis Jr.

For a 25-year-old in the prime of his career, and considering the expectations he set during his 2021 season when he hit 42 home runs and was worth nearly seven wins above replacement, it's been disappointing to say the least. And with nearly a season and a half done since his return from injuries and a suspension for violating Major League Baseball's performance enhancing drug policy, it's worth asking if fans should be concerned about Tatis' future.

PHOENIX, ARIZONA - MAY 03: Fernando Tatis Jr. #23 of the San Diego Padres dodges a pitch during the ninth inning against the Arizona Diamondbacks at Chase Field on May 03, 2024 in Phoenix, Arizona. (Photo by Chris Coduto/Getty Images)

Concerning Signs For Fernando Tatis Jr., Padres

The answer to whether or not fans should be concerned about Tatis is both yes and no.

As for concern, there are indications that Tatis simply isn't hitting the ball as well as he did in the first few years of his career. In the lockdown-shortened 2020 season, for example, Tatis averaged 95.9 exit velocity on balls in play. That resulted in an exceptional 62.2% hard hit rate. Unsurprisingly, he was near the top of the league in most expected stats categories. 

2021 was similar. His exit velo dropped to 93.9, but his hard hit rate once again was near the top of the sport at 55.6%. And his expected slugging actually went up to .615, putting him in the top 1% of MLB hitters.

In 2022 though, Tatis missed the entire season, first with wrist surgery after an offseason accident, and then the suspension. And ever since, those stats have taken a nosedive.

His 2023 exit velocity dropped two miles an hour to 91.9. Still high, but nowhere near the top 2% of the league where he'd ranked in 2021. His expected slugging dropped by over 100 points to .508. And his hard hit rate also went down significantly, from 55.6% to 48.9%.

Those stats have all gotten worse in 2024. His exit velos are down to 91.2, hard hit is 48.4%, and expected slugging is .494. In virtually every important offensive metric, Tatis' has been nowhere close to his 2020-2021 peak. And again, he's just 25-years-old. So what's happening?

Reasons For Optimism

Some of it can be ascribed to poor luck. Tatis' has significantly underperformed his expected stats; i.e. his expected slugging is .494 and actual is .411 this year. Some of that gap will close throughout the season. Similarly, his expected weighted on base average is .372 and actual is .329. Again, he's had some bad luck on batted balls in play.

Though the fact that this poor luck has continued now starting in 2023 could mean that teams have gotten better at positioning their defenses to combat Tatis' spray pattern.

Sure enough, it's pretty easy to set up your fielders against him; he hits grounders to the left side and fly balls to the right. With predictable consistency.

This doesn't mean that Tatis is doomed to mediocrity; he's still an exceptionally talented player, who should be performing better than he is. But it does indicate that fans may have to lower their expectations down from the game-changing superstar he appeared to be in 2020-2021. 

And combined with Manny Machado's issues offensively, it lowers the ceiling for what the 2024 Padres are capable of. Maybe the 2025-2033 Padres as well.