Think The AP Poll Doesn't Matter In The Age Of The Playoff? Think Again!
Looks like it should be a good year for Penn State if AP Poll history is any indicator.
Rejoice, college football fanatics, for today is a glorious day!
The preseason AP poll was released earlier this afternoon, meaning we are one step closer to getting the college football season underway.
As you can see, the top-10 is a who's who of Big Ten and SEC mainstays, while the rest of the top-25 features some newcomers sprinkled among some familiar faces.
And for those of you fans who find your team sitting outside the top-10 or the entire poll in general, who cares?
After all, it is the preseason poll!
No one pays attention to these rankings anyway, right?
You couldn't be more wrong.
Even in this era of an expanded playoff, recent history tells us that you need to be pretty highly ranked come week one if you want any shot at hoisting a trophy.
Just how highly do you need to be ranked in the preseason AP poll in order to ensure a national championship is in your grasp by season's end? The answer might shock you.
Going back to 2014, the year the BCS became the College Football Playoff, the average preseason ranking of the eventual national champion was 3.3.
That doesn't exactly inspire confidence in all those "darkhorse contenders" hanging out in the teens and twenties of the poll.
Sorry, Illinois and Oklahoma fans, but if we are going off of past performances as an indicator of future success, I just don't see it happening for you guys this year.
So, if you find your team ranked lower than third, should you just pack it in this season? Not necessarily.
There have been a few outliers over the past decade that have been ranked outside the top three spots, with LSU in 2019 (ranked sixth) being the lone champion not inside the top five of the preseason poll.
If you are the number one team in the land, though, you may not like your odds either.
The last preseason number one to win the whole damn thing was Alabama all the way back in 2017, and they are currently the only team ranked number one in the preseason AP poll to win a championship during the College Football Playoff era.
Looks like you have your work cut out for you, Texas!
Who is the most likely squad to win it all? The team sitting at number two during the month of August.
The second-ranked preseason team has accounted for five of the 11 national championships in the CFP era, and the last two national champions (Michigan and Ohio State) entered the season ranked number two.
After putting all of this together, if you are both a betting man and a history buff, the smart money says Penn State will win it all this year.
Congrats to James Franklin on finally winning a big game!
Just typing that out felt borderline sacrilegious, so, if you don't mind me, I think I'll stick with my preseason national champion pick in Texas.
See you all in January!