The Clay Travis Starting 11: October Gulf Football Watching, Penix And Nix Put On A Show, Michigan Is Good And ND Is Back
The Travis family is down at the beach this weekend because it's fall break.
When I was a kid no one had fall break. Now they've added a fall break to pretty much every school calendar to go along with the spring break and it feels like the entire South uses the fall break to make one final trip to the beach before it starts to get too cold to get in the water.
Honestly, I think October is the best month to hit the Florida gulf coast all year long. Either that or April.
But as my boys are getting older, all they want to do is sit and watch games on Saturday no matter where we are. Even if it's fall break and we're at the beach.
And my poor wife is slowly realizing that whereas she used to just have to worry about my sports obsession, now all three of our boys are as obsessed with sports as I am and it's almost impossible for her to plan anything.
On Thursday night we were down here at the sports bar watching the Braves lose to the Phillies -- I don't want to talk about it -- and on Saturday evening as the games came down to the wire, mom had made a dinner reservation for the five of us at 6:30 and the end of the Oregon-Washington game wasn't going to be complete in time.
And my wife was insisting that we had to leave.
Immediately.
That meant we left right after Washington got the fourth down stop.
Earlier she'd asked if the A&M-Tennessee game would be over by our dinner reservation and I'd insisted it would. But I was afraid we might go to overtime again and I was afraid to mention to her that it was a possibility.
That's partly because as luck would have it, we were down at the beach back in 2016, on fall break then too, when Tennessee and Texas A&M played a multi-overtime 45-38 game that lasted approximately nine hours.
And we missed like six dinner reservations.
Because I kept insisting the game was almost over.
Only it wasn't.
One of my sons, who will be remain nameless, said, "We should just tell mom we will meet," and I just immediately cut him off because we're at the age now where I get blamed for everything the boys do too. I even lecture them now when we're on car rides about how they'd better behave because if they don't somehow I'm to blame.
So we were biking to the restaurant yelling down and distance updates back and forth.
And what a game it was.
My wife has been so frustrated by all the sports on the calendar I barely had the heart to tell her that the Titans play at 8:30 am central from London against the Ravens. And that the boys aren't going to do anything until that game is over.
On to the Starting 11.
1. Washington gets the huge win over Oregon.
This was probably the best game, considering the quality of the teams, of the year.
And while Dan Lanning going for it late on fourth down -- and going 0-3 on 4th down overall -- will get a ton of the attention, the only one I disagreed with was the decision not to kick the field goal at the end of the half.
But going for the win late with a quarterback playing as well as Bo Nix was?
I didn't have a problem with it.
Especially not with Michael Penix, Jr. on the other sideline. I think if you have a chance to keep him from getting the ball back you have to take it.
And, let's be honest, it will be a big upset if Oregon and Washington don't rematch for the Pac 12 title. They look to be substantially better than anyone else in conference.
So this almost feels like the regular season match up of two NFL teams that will be meeting again in the playoffs.
Congrats to Washington on the big win, but I think the sequel, which will be far more significant, still looms in December.
2. Notre Dame dominated USC.
But it wasn't just a big win for Notre Dame, I think it exposed USC as a pretender in a major fashion.
If we only ranked teams based on what they've accomplished so far this year, which is what I try to do, where should USC be ranked in the newest AP poll coming out tomorrow? I think the Trojans are a 20-25 ranked team at best.
And I'm not even sure the Trojans should be ranked at all based on this defense, honestly.
With Utah, Washington, Oregon and UCLA still to play on this schedule, 9-3 feels like a best case scenario for USC.
As for Notre Dame, this was it, this was the win Fighting Irish fans have been craving for a very long time.
I still feel like Notre Dame is a 9-3 team this year too, but this helps to erase some of the sting from the Ohio State loss and from the debacle last week at Louisville. Given how well Marcus Freeman is recruiting this also feels like the prelude to a new era, a time when Notre Dame doesn't look outclassed by the talent on the field in big games. The Irish were every bit as big and fast as Ohio State and they looked bigger and faster than USC did tonight.
This wasn't just a win, it was a whipping, the likes of which we haven't seen Notre Dame deliver to a prime program in a very long time.
And with the 12 team playoff coming next year, Notre Dame fans have to be optimistic they'll be in the mix pretty much every year going forward.
3. Alabama survived against Arkansas, but how good are the Tide?
I know after last week's win in College Station we all said Alabama had the SEC West locked up, but some of the same issues reared their head on Saturday for Alabama -- they couldn't put away a mediocre Razorbacks team that is now 0-4 on the year in the SEC and 2-5 overall.
I don't know that LSU can fix its defense, but if they can, the Tide could be vulnerable to a team with lots of offensive weapons.
Because this doesn't look like the kind of Tide team that can win a shootout.
In fact next week's game against Tennessee feels like it could end up 13-10.
Put simply, Alabama doesn't look like a team right now that will be 11-1 in Atlanta, I think someone will beat them.
4. Tennessee won an incredibly ugly game against Texas A&M.
The Vols are now 5-1 on the year, 16-3 in the past two seasons under Josh Heupel, with 13 straight wins at home, the longest stretch of home wins since the glory years of 1996 to 2000. Yes, with at Alabama, at Kentucky, at Missouri and Georgia still left on the schedule, 9-3 is probably the best this Tennessee team can do, but going 9-3 with a chance at a tenth win in a bowl game after going 11-2 last year is a hell of a double dip for Tennessee, especially given where this program has been.
Tennessee is way better on defense this year than last year, but the Vols are much worse at quarterback and wide receiver. But Tennessee has three really good running backs and a pretty solid offensive line. Even without the ability to throw the ball at all, Tennessee ran for 232 yards against a solid A&M front. Honestly you can argue that if Tennessee hadn't even attempted a pass all day they might have won by more points than they did.
But Heupel winning an ugly defensive struggle is important because it shows that he's developing the ability to win even when he can't outscore you. (This was the first win for Heupel at Tennessee when the Vols didn't score 30 or more, prior to this game he'd been 0-6 in those contests.) Heck, Joe Milton was pretty awful throwing the football all day. He missed open receivers down the field, when he did make good throws his receivers dropped the ball, and the interception he threw in the end zone when Tennessee was trying to put the game away was, frankly, pretty awful and an indefensible decision. (Don't even get me started on the officiating, by the way, the SEC officials looked like they had no idea what a pass interference call was. And they also missed facemask calls, threw flags on plays that didn't look remotely like holds, honestly it was just an ugly performance by everyone on the field, players, coaches and officials.)
But, again, the Vols after a monster year have proven, at least so far this year, that 2022 wasn't based entirely on the talents of Hendon Hooker.
So Tennessee won and served notice that the program remains in pretty solid shape in year three of Heupel.
Okay, let's talk Texas A&M. The Aggies lost their 8th straight true road game and with LSU and Ole Miss still on the schedule 7-5 or so feels likely.
And, frankly, that's just not good enough. Especially not with oil at $100 a barrel and the number of Aggie boosters who can pony up big money if the right head coach is available. Plus, Jimbo's contract, which looked so expensive several years ago when he was hired, doesn't look that pricey now, not with many coaches making $9 million or more a year.
But I have to be honest with y'all, I just didn't see this collapse coming.
Jimbo had A&M good enough for the playoff in the covid year -- I still think they should have made it in 2020 -- and it felt like the Aggies were ready to turn the corner and become one of the elite programs in the country. But it just never happened. And the drop off since then has been pretty staggering. 8-4 in 2021, 5-7 in 2022 and 4-3 so far this year, with an 8-12 overall record in the SEC over those three years. Again, something like 7-5 feels likely now for 2023.
Meanwhile Florida State, where Jimbo left, is back in playoff contention with Mike Norvell and that can't go unmissed by Aggie diehards.
So here's the deal, who out there right now has a better resume than Jimbo had in 2018 when he came to A&M? Urban Meyer? Does he have any interest in coming to Texas? And if he did, would he win more than Jimbo does now? I just don't see anyone out there who is guaranteed to win at a super high level. Or anyone that has a better resume than Jimbo did when he was hired. It kind of feels like the Aggies are stuck in a tough spot, Jimbo's mediocre, but who is way better? And the timing couldn't be much worse with Texas joining the SEC next year too.
There just doesn't appear to be much positive momentum in Aggieland at all.
5. Two undefeated teams are left in the ACC -- Florida State and North Carolina.
Last week Louisville looked unstoppable against Notre Dame, this week the Cardinals got whipped on the road by a 1-4 Pittsburgh team. So, as always, you're never quite sure what any college team will do from one week to the next.
Having said that, FSU, North Carolina and Duke are the only teams without a conference loss.
And it feels like UNC and FSU will end up in the ACC title game.
Meaning the ACC is very well positioned for a playoff spot.
6. Michigan's dominance through seven games is incredible.
The Wolverines still haven't given up more than ten points in any game all season and these are the margins of Wolverine victory so far this year: 27, 28. 25. 24, 38, 42, 45.
I don't remember the last time we saw a team this completely dominant through seven games.
If you were just voting for the best team in college football based on what's happened on the field so far, Michigan would be a unanimous number one pick at this point.
Pray for Michigan State and Purde, it's going to get really ugly for both of these teams before the Wolverines head to Happy Valley to take on Penn State.
7. Colorado gave up a 29 point lead on Friday night and lost to Stanford in double overtime.
The Buffaloes are now 4-3 and making a bowl game is no guarantee.
Colorado figures to be an underdog at UCLA, against Oregon State, at Washington State, and at Utah. And I'm not sure they'll be much of a favorite against Arizona based on how well the Wildcats are playing.
That means there's a decent chance Deion Sanders's Colorado team won't even make a bowl game in year one of the Prime era.
If that were to happen, there would be a strong argument Colorado might be the most overcovered team in recent college football history. Yes, Colorado has been a fun story, but they aren't one of the top forty teams in college football this year.
Just how improbable was that comeback win for Stanford. FBS teams down by 28 or more points at halftime were 0-248 since 2019.
Now they are 1-248.
That's wild.
I hope Mark "I'm not taking a police escort because I'm afraid the police will kill me," Jones has recovered from the defeat. I'm not sure I've ever heard a supposedly impartial announcer be more biased in favor of a team before. At least we know Jones has no gag reflex.
8. Missouri crushed Kentucky to get to 6-1.
Funny story from down here on 30A, my third grader is learning how to bike and on Friday night he was riding along talking with his older brothers about the quarterbacks in the SEC and what we expected to see on Saturday in all the games -- as one does down here, and he said he thought Kentucky would win because, "I don't think Missouri's quarterback is that good."
I couldn't hear the conversation, but I passed a college-aged girl who was walking on the sidewalk and she turned to her friend and I heard her say, "That kid said Brady Cook isn't that good at quarterback!"
And she was legit pissed.
At my third grader's opinion.
Man, I really do love college football.
When we got back to our place, I asked him what he'd said about Brady Cook and he told me. I told him about the girl's reaction and he said, "I didn't know she would get mad at me for saying that."
And I said, "Welcome to my world, bud."
He's now sitting right beside me watching me write this column and he just said, "You get paid to write about college football?"
I don't know what he's thought I did for a living until now.
Anyway, my third grader was wrong. This Mizzou team is solid. Not win the SEC East solid but win eight or nine games solid. And it's even possible they go 10-2 this year.
9. Here are the national title and Heisman odds at the midway point of the season.
The ten current favorites to win the national title:
Georgia +250
Michigan +300
Florida State +850
Ohio State +900
Washington +950
Penn State +1300
Oklahoma +1500
Alabama +1700
Texas +1800
Oregon +3300
As for the Heisman, Michael Penix, Jr. is now -140 to win it
JJ McCarthy and Dillon Gabriel are both 10-1
Jordan Travis and Jayden Daniels are both 12-1 and Drake Maye is 17-1
Then it's Bo Nix at 40-1 and Carson Beck and Jalen Milroe at 50-1
I hate to say it, but when was the last time the favorite at the midway point won the Heisman? Almost never, right? I feel like there has to be value on some of these other guys.
10. Outkick's National Top Ten
Reminder, I only rank teams by what we have actually seen on the field, not by what I expected to see before the season started.
1. Michigan
2. Florida State
3. Georgia
4. Washington
5. Penn State
6. Ohio State
7. Oklahoma
8. Texas
9. Oregon
10. North Carolina
11. SEC power rankings 1-14
There may be a bit of disagreement out there, but I think almost everyone's power rankings would look pretty much like I've got it below.
1. Georgia
2. Alabama
3. Ole Miss
4. LSU
5. Missouri
6. Tennessee
7. Kentucky
8. Florida
9. Texas A&M
10. Arkansas
11. Auburn
12. South Carolina
13. Mississippi State
14. Vanderbilt