Somehow, The Toronto Blue Jays Have The Best Record In Baseball

Where in the world did the Toronto Blue Jays come from?

While the baseball world's attention has focused on teams like the Dodgers, San Francisco Giants, Mets or Phillies, out of nowhere, the Blue Jays have moved to 62-42 entering Saturday afternoon.

Suddenly, quietly, the Blue Jays have the best record in baseball. They've opened up a six-game lead in the American League East over the second-place New York Yankees. And importantly, even with three games remaining between the two teams, they've already won the head-to-head battle. That gives Toronto the tiebreaker over New York, meaning that if the season ended with both teams having the same record, Toronto would win the division and avoid a wild card series.

Another valuable aspect to the Blue Jays' surprising midseason success? It came before the trade deadline, allowing them to make targeted acquisitions to shore up weaknesses.

So how'd we get here?

DETROIT - Toronto Blue Jays outfielder George Springer (4) and first baseman Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (27) congratulate each other after scoring in the fifth inning against the Detroit Tigers at Comerica Park on July 25, 2025. Photo: Rick Osentoski-Imagn Images

Blue Jays Riding Timely Hitting To Unlikely Success

Well to start, the Blue Jays have gotten a bit lucky with their win-loss record thus far. Their run differential is just +43, making their expected record 56-48 instead of 62-42. Still, they're 18-4 in their last 22 games, and that doesn't happen by luck alone.

Toronto's offense has rebounded from a disappointing 2024 season, with Alejandro Kirk putting up an offensive season 15 percent better than league average. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. has been typically excellent. George Springer has turned back the clock, hitting .287/.380/.502. Perhaps most importantly, Addison Barger has taken a huge leap in his second year in the big leagues. 

After putting up a 69 weighted runs created plus, a figure 31 percent worse than league average in 2024, he has a 130wRC+ in 2025. And based on his quality of contact, he's actually been a bit unlucky. 

It's not just the offense either; their pitching staff, while not exactly exceptional, has few holes in it. 

Jose Berrios, Chris Bassitt and Kevin Gausman have been steady, solid, and remained healthy. Journeyman Eric Lauer has helped provide depth. Brendon Little, Brayden Fisher and Yariel Rodriguez have had outstanding seasons in the bullpen. Build a quality bullpen, win a lot of close games. Toronto's done that.  

But how likely is it that the Blue Jays hold on to the AL East for their first division title since 2015? 

Well, per Fangraphs, their lead, tiebreaker and improving stats give Toronto a 70 percent chance of winning the division. Their playoff probability is up to 97.1 percent. Suddenly, they have a 7.5 percent chance of winning the World Series. 

For a season that seemed dead early on, there's suddenly plenty to play for. And with Aaron Judge suddenly battling a serious elbow injury, those odds might be even a bit pessimistic. In an era of unlimited parity, the Blue Jays are taking advantage.

Oh, and in their Saturday afternoon matchup against superstar Tigers starter Tarik Skubal? Yeah they won that 6-1 too, improving to 19-4.