So, How Many Teams Can Actually Win The Super Bowl This Season?

Seventeen weeks in, the NFL season appears as wide open as it has been in a decade.

The league’s best player, Patrick Mahomes, and his dynastic Chiefs were eliminated from playoff contention weeks ago. The Rams are statistically the best team in the NFL, yet they will enter the postseason as a Wild Card, needing to win three straight road games. 

Two weeks ago, the 49ers sat outside the top 10 in Super Bowl odds. Now, if they win at home on Sunday, they will secure home-field advantage throughout the playoffs, with a path to a Super Bowl in San Francisco.

Typically, despite postseason marketing, Super Bowl bubbles are small, with only three or four teams realistically capable of winning it all. That is not the case this season.

So the question becomes, how wide is the Super Bowl bubble heading into the postseason?

According to DraftKings, only three of the 16 teams that have clinched or remain in playoff contention are considered long shots: the Steelers at +10000, the Panthers at +12000, and the Buccaneers at +15000.

The full list:

SEA Seahawks +500
LA Rams +550
DEN Broncos +700
SF 49ers +800
NE Patriots +850
PHI Eagles +1000
BUF Bills +1100
JAX Jaguars +1300
HOU Texans +1400
BAL Ravens +2000
GB Packers +2200
CHI Bears +2200
LA Chargers +2800
PIT Steelers +10000
CAR Panthers +12000
TB Buccaneers +15000

David Butler II-Imagn Images 

Now, for a process of elimination:

We agree with the sportsbook and have removed the Steelers, Panthers, and Buccaneers from the Super Bowl bubble. Put bluntly, these three teams are not very good.

We will also remove the Chargers.

As impressive as Jim Harbaugh and Justin Herbert are, Los Angeles’ offensive line is arguably the weakest unit in the league due to injuries. That does not mean the Chargers will be an easy out. Between Herbert and a fourth-ranked defense, they will not be. Still, the lack of protection is likely to cost them, and likely early.

The media will face a familiar conundrum if the Ravens beat the Steelers on Sunday to win the AFC North. On one hand, the Bomani Jones types will want to frame the playoff field as weak and shift pressure onto Josh Allen. On the other hand, those same voices will want to champion their favorite quarterback, Lamar Jackson, and pick him to win the Super Bowl. 

While that debate plays out, we are removing Baltimore from the bubble. Despite the excuses, Jackson has not been elite at any point this season. Baltimore’s defense is also not what it was in previous years.

Elsewhere, there is a case for nearly every team in the AFC as the best in the conference. The Broncos have the best roster, but questions remain about Bo Nix. The Bills have the best player in Josh Allen, but questions remain about the roster. The Patriots are exciting but young (and two of their players could be ineligible while facing legal charges). Houston’s defense is next-level, though its offense is pedestrian. The Jaguars have looked like the most complete team, but remain the Jaguars, something Lions fans from last year can relate to.

Caleb Williams #18 of the Chicago Bears high fives with fans after his team defeated the Green Bay Packers at Soldier Field on December 20, 2025 in Chicago, Illinois. (Photo by Michael Reaves/Getty Images)

In the NFC, we cannot discount any team outside the South winner, whether that is Tampa Bay or Carolina. 

While Green Bay is limping into the postseason following a season-ending injury to Micah Parsons, the Packers’ offense can keep pace with anyone when Jordan Love and his collection of weapons are healthy.

If nothing else, the Ben Johnson-led Bears have shown they can compete with or beat anyone. Just look at their games against the Packers, 49ers, and Eagles.

In sum, we are comfortably putting 11 teams in the Super Bowl bubble.

As for the teams at the center, meaning the teams we would actually bet on to win it all, we are keeping that list short. 

Without the usual confidence, the three teams in the NFC West appear to be a step ahead of the pack. The Rams are still the best team in the league. However, whichever team earns home-field advantage between the 49ers and Seahawks will have the easier path.

Our official Super Bowl bubble:

The favorites: Rams, 49ers, Seahawks.

The contenders: Eagles, Broncos, Bills, Texans, Packers, Bears, Jaguars, Patriots.