Tarik Skubal Wins Case Against Tigers, Permanently Changing Baseball
The $13M gap between player and team was the largest in arbitration history, permanently resetting the process moving forward
Nobody who follows, watches, or analyzes Major League Baseball would argue that Detroit Tigers starting pitcher Tarik Skubal isn't one of the best two or three pitchers in the sport. Well, nobody except for the Detroit Tigers organization.
As a reminder, Skubal in 2024 had a 2.39 ERA, 228 strikeouts in 192 innings, walked just 33 hitters, and racked up six wins above replacement. Then he got better in 2025. His ERA dropped to 2.21. He had 241 strikeouts in 195.1 innings, just 33 walks, and led the league in WHIP with 0.891, good for 6.6 wins above replacement.
The Tigers though, in his last year of salary arbitration, didn't want to pay him commensurate to that production and the value it creates. Baseball's process is complicated, but generally, players can't become free agents until after their third year in arbitration. Their salaries increase in each year of arbitration, to the point where, in their third year, they're paid roughly commensurate with market rate for their position and success. The going rate for a pitcher like Skubal? Probably $35-40 million per year.
Zack Wheeler's average annual value for the Philadelphia Phillies is $42 million per year. Jacob deGrom is getting $38 million per year, and Gerrit Cole, $36 million. What did the Tigers offer Skubal in his last year of arbitration? $19 million. They lost.
Tigers lefty Tarik Skubal throws a pitch vs. the San Francisco Giants at Comerica Park in Detroit. (Brandon Sloter/Image Of Sport/Getty Images)
Tarik Skubal Gets Huge Salary Increase In Arbitration
Unsurprisingly, with the Tigers wanting to pay him just $19 million in 2026, Skubal and his agent filed at a much higher salary, $32 million. Even with a large gap between what an organization offers and a player's demand, disagreements rarely get to an arbitration hearing. Hearings can be contentious, with teams telling an independent arbiter why their player doesn't deserve to get paid more money. And players hear those arguments, potentially creating disagreements between the two sides as they head to free agency.
But the Tigers and Skubal apparently couldn't bridge the $13 million gap, leading to a rare arbitration hearing that took place on Wednesday. And ESPN's Jeff Passan reported on Thursday afternoon that Skubal won, permanently resetting the arbitration process in MLB moving forward.
The $13 million gap between player and team was the largest in arbitration history. The previous largest win for a player who went to a hearing? $19.9 million for Vladimir Guerrero in 2024. The largest salary for a player still in arbitration? Juan Soto with the New York Yankees in 2024, at $31 million. Skubal broke all the records.
What does this mean moving forward? Well, Skubal reaches free agency after the 2026 season, and assuming he's healthy and remains effective, he is going to get paid. In a big, big way. It also indicates that small market teams have immense advantages when they draft and develop young star players. Skubal, Paul Skenes, players like that have been providing tens of millions of dollars in value to their teams at much lower salaries. And those players often come as a result of the higher draft picks smaller market teams get.
The Tigers have also realized that Skubal's likely to leave after the year, leading to signing Framber Valdez to a 3-year, $113 million deal. Can't afford Skubal in 2027? Sign Valdez to replace him for the next few years. And that's the path for many small market teams, draft and develop stars, supplant them with shorter-term signings, make the playoffs. If the Tigers season goes off the rails though? It makes Skubal much more likely to be traded midseason. If Detroit can save $13-15 million by trading him, don't be surprised if it does.
This also indicates that teams may have to be much more aggressive with their arbitration offers moving forward. Skubal may have been willing to settle for something in the $25-27 million range. Instead, the Tigers now have to pay him $32 million. That backfired.
The good news for Tigers fans is that with Skubal, Valdez, and Jack Flaherty, they have one of the best rotations in baseball. Their bullpen is deep and talented. And their lineup, though it has little star power outside Riley Greene, is balanced, gets the little things right, and doesn't give away at bats. This is a team that can make a deep playoff run. And that's worth any amount of money.