Overrated Sean Payton Finds Himself In Perfect Win-Win Situation

The sports media LOVES Sean Payton. I believe Payton is a good NFL coach, but he's not elite and never has been. Yet, the rest of the media touts his "genius" regularly because, while Payton is a good coach, he's an even better controller of his own narrative.

This year, he caught another fantastic break. The Denver Broncos took advantage of a weak schedule (and a down-year by the Chiefs) and clinched the No. 1 seed in the AFC, earning a first-round bye. Then, Denver benefited from several controversial calls to squeak past the Buffalo Bills to advance to the AFC Championship Game. Quarterback Bo Nix suffered a season-ending injury, which is bad for Broncos fans. 

It's not bad for Payton's legacy, though. Either the Broncos lose to the New England Patriots on Sunday and everyone gives Payton a pass because he didn't have his starting quarterback, or the Broncos somehow win and Payton is the genius who advanced to the Super Bowl with a backup quarterback (something Doug Pederson did with the 2017 Philadelphia Eagles, who won the Super Bowl, and he can't even find a job now). 

Yes, it takes some luck to win in the NFL or at any high level of athletics. But Payton has had more than a fair share of good luck. 

Sean Payton is a good coach, but not elite, and because of an injury to quarterback Bo Nix, a Denver Broncos' loss to the New England Patriots in the AFC Championship won't hurt Payton's legacy.

(Kirby Lee-Imagn Images)

Revisiting the Saints Years: Results vs. Reputation

Recall that if the Miami Dolphins hadn't passed on Drew Brees in 2006 because of his shoulder surgery, Payton would likely have never had the career in New Orleans that he did. 

Plus, people seem to think New Orleans was a perennial contender with Payton and Brees. That's not exactly true. In his 15 seasons with the team, New Orleans missed the playoffs six times. Twice they lost their first playoff game, so in more than half their seasons the team did not win a single playoff game.

That doesn't even account for the fact that Payton never really had to deal with a legitimate challenger in the NFC South. The Saints won double-digit games in nine seasons with Drew Brees as their quarterback. The rest of the NFC South had 12 such seasons combined in that span. 

There's also the idea that Payton made Brees into a Hall of Famer and not the other way around. I'm not sure how people draw that conclusion. 

Brees struggled in his first couple NFL seasons, as young quarterbacks often do, but came alive in his third as the Chargers starter. The team went 12-4 (11-4 with Brees starting) and Brees connected on 65% of his passes with a 27-7 TD-INT ratio, winning the NFL's Comeback Player of the Year Award.

Brees always had massive talent. He was the 32nd pick in the 2001 NFL Draft and the second-highest selected quarterback in that draft. He was 20-11 in his last 31 starts in San Diego, but the Chargers were always going to turn the keys over to Philip Rivers, who they "drafted" in 2004. After Brees suffered a nasty shoulder injury at the end of 2005, there were questions about his longevity.

New Orleans Saints QB Drew Brees talks with head coach Sean Payton prior to a game at Mercedes-Benz Superdome in 2019.

(Chris Graythen/Getty Images)

In fact, Brees' most likely landing spot was in Miami to play for head coach ... Nick Saban. But the Dolphins medical staff did not sign off on his physical. If Brees had gone to Miami, it could have changed the course of football history.

The point I'm trying to make here is that, through a confluence of factors (San Diego drafting Rivers, Brees' shoulder injury, Miami's incompetence), Sean Payton wound up with an extremely talented quarterback who was entering his age-27 season on a team-friendly contract.

Then, after that quarterback retired and the roster (which was constructed by Payton) fell apart, he quit his job and left. Yet, almost no one in the media ever criticized Payton for abandoning the Saints when things got tough and only returning when he found a better team with a better roster that was ready to compete. 

Quarterback Whisperer? 

And as far as the "quarterback whisperer" narrative, Bo Nix didn't play nearly as well this season as you probably believe. He was basically average in advanced metrics, like EPA per play, and his traditional stats weren't overly impressive either. Nix led the NFL in passing attempts, but failed to reach 4,000 yards. He completed 63% of his passes, which was worse than his rookie season, and had a 25-11 TD-INT ratio that certainly wasn't elite. 

Remember that Payton handpicked Nix as his franchise quarterback after shipping Russell Wilson out of town at the earliest opportunity.

Payton is smart about how he treats the media and always has been. That's why very few even seem to remember that the NFL suspended Payton for an entire season in the wake of the 2012 Bountygate scandal. Or that he quit on the Saints in 2022. 

Payton has always made media members feel like they are special, and not let them realize that he was simply playing an important game. During my time at ESPN, no one had anything bad to say about Payton. So, hey, he's just a good guy, so what's wrong with that? 

Nothing, honestly. But let's stop pretending that he's some football genius who didn't luck his way into Drew Brees and still only win one Super Bowl. A Super Bowl that he's been living off of for 15 years. 

On Sunday, the Broncos might win. They might lose. But it doesn't matter for Sean Payton. The media will protect its favorite coach regardless of what the scoreboard says.