Rays Can Take Rubber Match

Rays vs. Mets, 1:10 ET

Traps are something that people like to lament about in sports betting. You see a line and think that it is too good to be true. The book isn't trying to lure you into betting on it, there are too many factors that contribute to lines for that to be a strategy. Anyway, the past two days, I saw two lines too good to be true and took them. I failed miserably in both, yet here I am one more time finding a line that I think is too good to be true. The series is tied 1-1 and we look to take a win in the game as the Rays take on the Mets.

The Rays have continued their phenomenal start. Obviously, the beginning of the season was better than anyone could expect with 13 consecutive wins. Even after that they've been able to win at a sustained rate. They have a 19-12 record since the start and I don't think anyone would complain about that. Now they are sending out Taj Bradley to the mound as they look to steal the series away from the Mets. Bradley has made three starts this season, the start of his career. All of the sample sizes are very small, obviously, but he was great against the Reds on the road, going 5.1 innings and striking out nine hitters. The Rays have given him tons of run support, scoring at least eight runs in all three games he has started. He has certainly done his part as he's allowed no more than three earned runs in any of his three starts.

The Mets take on the Rays in a rubber match. (Photo by Katelyn Mulcahy/MLB Photos via Getty Images)

The Mets are somewhat of a disaster this season. They were supposed to be one of the best teams in baseball - at least that's what the "experts" suggested. Their hitters have underperformed to this point, and their pitching has been pretty brutal despite having Max Scherzer and Justin Verlander on the squad. Nothing about the team has been that encouraging and they even are just 8-9 on the season in New York. Today they send Tylor Megill to the hill in hopes of winning the series. Megill has a 4.02 ERA, but he's been solid for the Mets overall. He's only allowed more than three earned runs in one start. He also is going roughly five innings in each start. He has been slightly better at home this season.

What I'm seeing is two pitchers that are going roughly five innings each. That makes me inclined to play the first five innings. Bradley doesn't have enough information for me to really be confident in him, but I am confident in the Rays that they can get to Megill, a pitcher that is allowing runs. I'll back the Rays through five at -115.

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