Paul Finebaum Says Only A Few Playoff Teams Can Win National Championship

The College Football Playoff kicks off on Friday, and if one prominent college football analyst is to be believed, the outcome has already been determined. 

This 12-team field has big name programs left and right, surprising upstarts with dominant regular-season performances, like the Texas Tech Red Raiders.  The defending champion Ohio State Buckeyes; The Oregon Ducks, with just one loss to an undefeated Indiana team; The Georgia Bulldogs, who dominated Alabama in the SEC Championship Exhibition Game. Texas A&M, who were undefeated until a season-ending loss to the Texas Longhorns. Ole Miss, who also lost just once. The Oklahoma Sooners, with their top-level defense. Or even Alabama, who backed into the playoff thanks to their conference affiliation and organized lobbying efforts from college football media.

You'd think a field that deep would mean anyone, well, except for maybe Tulane or James Madison, could win a title. But on a new episode of "McElroy and Cubelic In The Morning," ESPN's Paul Finebaum was asked which teams he believes are legitimate contenders within the playoff field. And he clearly doesn't believe that this playoff has much depth to it.

ESPN college football analyst and SEC booster Paul Finebaum. (Credit: Getty Images)

Is Finebaum Right About National Championship Contenders?

"Not that many," he answered, when asked how many teams in the field had legitimate championship hopes. "I mean, I really think you start with the top two. I don’t think there’s any question about Indiana or Ohio State. You can add, I think, Georgia to that mix."

"I’m struggling to put Oregon in there," he added. "I think this is a real challenge for me."

As for his conference's teams, Finebaum said he thinks "Texas A&M has a path," and that "they're built pretty well." 

He's unsure about Alabama, treating them as a wild card thanks to their inconsistency throughout the season. "I’m optimistic that Alabama could make a run," he continued. "Now, I’m as easily optimistic that I’ll be talking to you next Monday about the end of their season." Similarly, Ole Miss has a lot to contend with. 

"Ole Miss is a little bit of a misnomer," Finebaum explained. "They’ll still have to play Georgia, and I really would like Georgia in that rematch." 

So what's there to make of all these predictions and assumptions? Well, looking at the numbers, the top three teams this season by opponent-adjusted efficiency on offense, defense, and special teams have been Indiana, Ohio State, and…Texas Tech. Who weren't even mentioned, because they play in the Big 12. Oregon and Georgia come next, followed by Notre Dame, which was excluded from the playoff because the committee has no idea what they're doing.  

For context, here's how the bracket looks.

Here's where Finebaum's right: this is a tough lift for Ole Miss. Georgia is a formidable opponent, and even if they take care of business against Tulane, it's an uphill battle to upset the Bulldogs. 

Here's where his predictions have issues. A&M and Miami are more closely matched than most realize, because the Aggies record hasn't fully reflected how they've played. Ohio State will be clear favorites over either, making it hard to see an extended run for Texas A&M. And one of Texas Tech or Oregon is likely to make the semifinal, putting either in a strong position to win a title. Particularly if Alabama or Oklahoma upset the Hoosiers.

He has a point that not everyone in the field can have real championship aspirations. But discounting Texas Tech or Oregon isn't justified by how those teams have played.