Padres GM Discusses Juan Soto’s Future In San Diego

The San Diego Padres closed out 2023 with a bang, putting together an impressive final two weeks thanks in large part to outfielder Juan Soto.

After a slow start, Soto wound up contributing his usual excellent offense, racking up a batting line 55% better than league average. In a disappointing Padres lineup, he was a rare bright spot, hitting .275/.410/.519, good for 5.5 fWAR despite some questionable defense.

Despite disappointing preseason expectations, with superstar Manny Machado predicting a World Series parade through the city, the returning offensive core points to a potentially quick rebound. But recent reports have suggested that the team may need to cut substantial payroll to comply with MLB's debt service obligations.

READ: SAN DIEGO PADRES SET TO SIGNIFICANTLY CUT SALARY FOR NEXT SEASON, DESPITE BIG FREE AGENTS

With massive payroll commitments set for the forseeable future, one of the Padres options may need to involve trading Juan Soto's likely astronomical arbitration salary. And team president of baseball operations and general manager A.J. Preller addressed that possibility speaking to reporters recently.

According to MLB.com's AJ Cassavell, Preller said the "first path" with Soto is for the team to try and come to an agreement on an extension. However, when asked about a potential trade, he said "We've never been a group that says no to anything. I wouldn't read into that. That's just kind of the way we operate."

DENVER, CO - SEPTEMBER 25: Juan Soto #22 of the San Diego Padres bats against the Colorado Rockies in the ninth inning of a game at Coors Field on September 25, 2022 in Denver, Colorado. (Photo by Dustin Bradford/Getty Images)

Juan Soto Trade Might Make The Most Sense For San Diego

Just last month, Bob Nightengale reported that the Padres "are internally leaning towards" trading Soto.

Despite Preller saying not to read into it, it's impossible not to considering he didn't dismiss it outright. Or say that it remains extremely unlikely that a trade would even be considered.

And it's not hard to figure out why he was more blunt than you'd expect. A Soto trade makes a ton of sense if the team really does need to cut payroll.

According to MLB Trade Rumors, Soto is expected to make roughly $33 million next season in arbitration. The Padres already have roughly $129 million committed in 2024 to just eight players and Eric Hosmer's remaining contract.

Add in $33 million for Soto, and they're already up to $162 million for nine players, not accounting the remainder of their arbitration eligible players and the litany of player options that have yet to be decided.

If Nick Martinez and Matt Carpenter pick up their options, that adds $13 million, and the remaining arbitration estimates from MLB Trade Rumors suggest another $17 million in obligations. Just that pushes them to $192 million, plus pre-arb players and needing to replace Seth Lugo, Michael Wacha (assuming they decline their options), Blake Snell, Gary Sanchez, as well as relievers like Luis Garcia and Josh Hader with around $8 million in player payroll available.

If that sounds impossible, that's because it is.

Padres Have Few Options For The Future

If $200 million is really the limit, the Padres may have to trade Soto to have any shot at rounding out a competitive roster. Otherwise, the depth concerns that reared their ugly head this year may get even worse next year. Not to mention that the return from a potential Soto deal may help reload the gutted farm system or add major league contributors at key positions.

For a team that has $146 million in payroll commitments in 2027, a $450-500 million extension for Soto seems unwise, to say the least. On top of being unlikely considering his agent, Scott Boras, is known for avoiding extensions.

The Padres went all-in for 2023, and failed spectacularly. Missing the playoffs with a massive, 12-team field is inexcusable for a team that spent nearly $300 million.

And with MLB and financial problems looming, it may cost them a chance to keep arguably their best player.