NFL Claims Nielsen Undercounts Its Viewers By 'Millions'

On average, the NFL accounts for 93 of the 100 most-watched telecasts each year. To put that dominance in perspective, both the NFC and AFC Championship Games drew larger audiences than the much-hyped presidential debate between Donald Trump and Joe Biden (51.3 million viewers). And yet, the NFL argues that Nielsen is still undercounting its audience by "millions."

"There are millions of viewers that we believe [Nielsen is] systematically undercounting," Paul Ballew, the NFL’s Chief Data and Analytics Officer, told the Wall Street Journal.

A Nielsen spokeswoman did not directly dispute Ballew’s claim, but said she is "confident this will be the most accurately rated football season in history." She added that Nielsen is working closely with the NFL to "innovate its data collection."

For decades, Nielsen’s measurements have determined advertising rates, rights fees, programming schedules, talent salaries, and whether shows are renewed or canceled. However, the accuracy of its data has always been questioned.

TOPSHOT - Kansas City Chiefs' quarterback #15 Patrick Mahomes celebrates with the trophy after the Chiefs won Super Bowl LVIII against the San Francisco 49ers at Allegiant Stadium in Las Vegas, Nevada, February 11, 2024. (Photo by TIMOTHY A. CLARY / AFP) (Photo by TIMOTHY A. CLARY/AFP via Getty Images)

How TV Ratings Work

Like a political poll, Nielsen uses a representative sample of about 25,000 U.S. households and applies statistical modeling to project national ratings. Importantly, Nielsen measures average viewers per minute, not the cumulative number of people who tuned in at any point.

For example, if Nielsen reports that 20 million people watched a football game, that suggests 20 million were watching during any given minute of the broadcast. The total number of unique viewers who caught part of the game would be much higher.

This is why it’s misleading when people claim a podcast with X number of views "beat" a television program that averaged Y viewers. The two metrics are not comparable.

NEW ORLEANS, LA - FEBRUARY 09: Jalen Hurts #1 of the Philadelphia Eagles celebrates after defeating the Kansas City Chiefs during Super Bowl LIX at Caesars Superdome on February 9, 2025 in New Orleans, Louisiana. (Photo by Cooper Neill/Getty Images)

The Streaming Challenge

Streaming has further complicated Nielsen's measurements. Services like Netflix, Amazon, and YouTube closely guard their data, and this season marks the first time fans can stream every nationally televised NFL game.

Select games will stream exclusively on YouTube, Netflix, Amazon Prime and Peacock. Meanwhile, ESPN, NBC, CBS, and Fox will simulcast their NFL broadcasts on either a streaming platform (Peacock, Paramount+) or a direct-to-consumer app (ESPN DTC, Fox One).

Nielsen claims it’s prepared. The company says it can now better capture streaming and out-of-home viewership, with agreements in place to integrate data from Amazon, Netflix, and YouTube. Nielsen says it's also in active talks with NFL rights holders ESPN, Fox, NBCUniversal and CBS to do the same.

The WSJ notes that Nielsen recently introduced its "Big Data + Panel" methodology, which combines traditional household panels with data from 45 million homes and 75 million devices via cable boxes and smart TVs.

Prediction

With the changes, the Super Bowl will almost certainly break its own viewership record for the fourth consecutive year. In February, Super Bowl LIX averaged 127.7 million. We'll guess the Super Bowl eclipses 130 million this year.