NCAA Tournament Breakdown: East Region Best Bets, Sleepers & Busts
The NCAA Tournament Bracket is set and for many Americans, that means it's time to start making picks for March Madness bracket pools. In case you missed it, I wrote a general tips & tricks piece with advice for filling out your own bracket as you attempt to win your office pool.
For this series, we're going to go through each region and deliver an in-depth breakdown of each of the 16-team clusters, with some of our favorite picks and sleepers. We start with the East region, headlined by the #1 overall seed in the NCAA Tournament, the reigning National Champion UConn Huskies.
Most Likely Final Four Team: #1 UConn
I'd love to go contrarian here, but there's a reason that Connecticut is the #1 overall seed in the NCAA Tournament: they're the best team. The Huskies rank first on KenPom, second in the NCAA's NET Ranking, and boast a 31-3 record after winning the Big East Tournament. They're the favorites to win the NCAA Tournament (+400 at DraftKings).
UConn Huskies head coach Dan Hurley celebrates beating the Marquette Golden Eagles to capture the Big East Tournament Championship.
(Robert Deutsch/USA TODAY Sports)
All three of Connecticut's losses came on the road, two of which occurred in December (at Kansas and at Seton Hall, one of the biggest snubs of the NCAA Tournament). Their only loss since Christmas came at Creighton on Feb. 20.
The Huskies bring a seven-game winning streak into the NCAA Tournament, and it's difficult to see a team beating them. Not that it won't happen, but it would be disingenuous to say that UConn winning the East isn't the most likely outcome.
Sleeper Final Four Pick: #4 Auburn
Auburn might have the biggest gripe of any team in the NCAA Tournament about its seeding. The Tigers have more of a claim of being the fourth-best team in the country than they do of being a #4 seed.
According to KenPom, the Tigers ARE the fourth-best team in the nation. Even the NCAA's own statistic – the NET Ranking – places Auburn as the country's fifth-best team. So, how did the SEC Tournament Champions end up as a #4 seed? Honestly, I have no idea. Because of that, they likely have to beat the tournament's overall #1 seed, UConn, just to reach the Elite Eight.
Auburn center Dylan Cardwell cuts a piece of the net after the Tigers defeated the Florida Gators in the SEC Tournament Championship game.
(Andrew Nelles/The Tennessean/USA Today Network)
That's a tough draw for a team that deserved an easier path, based on their season-long resume. But it's also bad news for Connecticut. The Huskies probably aren't thrilled that they headline a region featuring KenPom's #4 team (SEC Champion Auburn), #5 team (Big 12 Champion Iowa State), and #10 team (Big Ten Champion Illinois).
Auburn is the only non-#1 or #2 seed in the tournament to have odds better than 20-1 to win the entire tournament (+1600), according to DraftKings. If they can topple Connecticut, Auburn would cement itself as a National Championship contender. But that's a big "if."
Top 4 Seed Most Likely To Not Reach Sweet 16: #2 Iowa State
Honestly, this is a tough region to predict upsets. As noted in the Auburn section, the top four seeds in this region rate extremely well by all predictive metrics. However, there's a lot of discussion that the Big 12 rigged its schedule purposefully to drive up its overall ratings.
There's no bigger example of this than Iowa State. The NCAA Tournament selection committee admitted that it considered Iowa State for a #1 seed, but couldn't .look past its non-conference schedule. It's bad. According to KenPom, Iowa State played the 351st toughest non-conference schedule in the country (out of 362 schools). That was third-worst among tournament teams (fellow Big 12 team, TCU, played the worst schedule of any tournament squad).
Iowa State players celebrate after the Cyclones defeated the Houston Cougars in the Big 12 Tournament Championship game.
(William Purnell/USA Today Sports)
Yes, Iowa State played in the tough Big 12, but how good is the Big 12 really? That's a fascinating question that we are likely to get an answer to very early on in March Madness. Personally, I think the league is going to get exposed, and I expect Iowa State to lose to either Washington State or Drake in the Round of 32.
First Round Upset Watch: #12 UAB over #5 San Diego State
Again, I'm not sure if there's going to be a big upset in the first round of this region just because of how stacked the top teams are. #10 Drake is actually favored over #7 Washington State, so that would be an upset in terms of seeding, but not in terms of the betting line.
I like San Diego State and think it's slightly underrated, but as the #21 team overall on KenPom, it easily fall behind the top four seeds here. Even BYU, the #6 seed in this region, looks to have gotten a raw deal from the NCAA Tournament selection committee (#16 on KenPom).
Since the format of this piece is to give out an upset, that makes UAB-San Diego State the default pick. Sure, I could change the format since I invented it, but I have already started writing all this, so I'm not going to do it.
I'm disappointed that UAB drew SDSU in the first round, quite honestly. You know how going into the tournament you have a few teams you have your eyes on, thinking "I'm gonna pick them to make a deeper run than people expect"? Yeah, well, for me, I had both of these teams on that list, and now they're playing each other in the Round of 64. Thanks, NCAA Tournament Selection Committee.
Player To Watch: Tucker Devries, #10 Drake
If you haven't heard of Tucker Devries prior to the NCAA Tournament, you're about to hear a lot about him. Drake is the #10 seed in the East Region, yet they're actually favored to beat the #7 seed, Washington State. Part of the reason is that Drake has Devries and Wazzou doesn't.
Devries averages nearly 22 points per game, and he can flat-out shoot it from deep. He's a 36% 3-point shooter who also stands 6'7" and averages over six rebounds per game. NCAA Tournament success is largely driven by guard play and Drake has a huge advantage, boasting a giant guard who can shoot.
Drake guard Tucker DeVries reacts after the Bulldogs defeated the Indiana State Sycamores to win the Missouri Valley Conference Tournament Championship.
(Jeff Curry/USA TODAY Sports)
Devries scored 27 points in the Missouri Valley Conference Championship game over Indiana State, which (unfairly) knocked the Sycamores out of the NCAA Tournament. Oh, and he added seven rebounds and five assists. Devries has four games this season with at least 30 points and 18 games with at least 20.
If Drake gets past Washington State and manages to upset Iowa State, Devries could quickly become the kid that gets a TON of press from fans who had no idea he existed until March Madness.