This Season Once Again Proves Managers Don't Really Matter In MLB
Rangers and Cubs underperform despite hiring celebrated managers for millions while Brewers thrive with budget replacement
One of the most commonly repeated narratives across Major League Baseball is the importance of managers.
It's an "old school" cliché; that "good" managers are responsible for their team's success, or that the calm, steady hand of a veteran manager can make the difference or take their teams to the next level. This mentality was never more obvious than after the 2023 season, when the Texas Rangers won the World Series.
What was responsible for the Rangers' success? Playing a relatively weak opponent in the World Series? Remarkable timely hitting from key players like Adolis Garcia, Marcus Semien and Corey Seager, who'd contributed to one of baseball's top offenses? Quality starting pitching? Of course not, it was the fact that the Rangers had hired Bruce Bochy as their manager.
ESPN's Jeff Passan wrote that Bochy had "joined a list of the greatest managers in history."
Buster Olney said Bochy was a candidate for being "the greatest manager ever," because his "feel" for the game was so exceptional.
Diamondbacks manager Torey Lovullo said that Bochy is old school, and that's what makes him so good. "The rest of us are using tablets and charts, and Bruce is managing by the scoreboard. I really admire that," he told Sports Illustrated's Tom Verducci.
Another article described his "calming presence" being the difference maker for the Rangers.
Soon afterward, the Chicago Cubs made headlines by signing manager Craig Counsell to a 5-year, $40 million contract, poaching him from the Milwaukee Brewers. For perspective, the second highest paid player on the active roster for the Miami Marlins is Edward Cabrera, who is making $1.95 million. Counsell is making $8 million.
So how's that all working out?
DENVER, COLORADO - MAY 12: Manager Bruce Bochy #15 of the Texas Rangers walks out to the mound against the Colorado Rockies in the seventh inning at Coors Field on May 12, 2024 in Denver, Colorado. (Photo by Matthew Stockman/Getty Images)
Nope, Managers Don't Matter Much
Well, entering Friday afternoon, the "calming" "greatest manager ever" with the best "feel" for baseball of any manager ever, who's better than everyone else because he values old school methods, has his team sitting at 63-66, 7.5 games back of first place in the AL West, and 5.5 games out of a third wild card spot.
Fangraphs gives the Rangers just a 6.5% chance of making the postseason. This comes after a 2024 season where Bochy's Rangers finished 78-84, 10.5 games out of first place in the AL West.
So over the last 291 games, Bruce Bochy's managerial record is 141-150. The greatest manager in history.
Even better, the Rangers run differential this season is +47, implying that their record "should" be 70-59. So they've underperformed by a whopping seven games. How does that happen? Well, mostly bad luck, but usually teams that don't meet their win expectancy fall short because of poor bullpen performance leading to close losses. So Bochy went from having the best feel and scoreboard watching for managing of anyone in baseball history, to apparently being bad enough at bullpen management to have cost his team wins.
Or maybe he just got way too much credit in 2023. Like, for example, when Corey Seager hit a two-run homer in the bottom of the 9th inning in game 1 of the World Series. Was that Bruce Bochy telling him, "Hey Corey, we're losing by two runs here in the bottom of the 9th. This is the World Series, so it's an important game. And winning the first game of the series would also be nice. Not sure if you're familiar with baseball, Corey, but the best way to win a best-of-7 series is to win four games out of seven. So if you could hit a home run here to tie the score, that would be great, because it would send the game to extra innings, since those are the rules of baseball. Again, not sure if you've ever played baseball, Corey, but just throwing it out there that a home run would be good here."
Or was it the fact that Corey Seager is one of the best players in baseball? We'll never know.
It's the same with Craig Counsell. In his first year of his $8 million-per-year contract, Counsell led his team to an 83-79 record, 10 games behind the team he left, the Milwaukee Brewers. While the Cubs have improved substantially in year two, they entered Friday seven games behind the Brewers, again, and with just an 8% chance of winning their division.
So the Cubs paid $8 million per year to get a wild card spot?
Oh, and those Brewers replaced Counsell with Pat Murphy. Murphy's primary MLB managerial experience was going 42-54 with the 2014 Padres as an interim manager. It's not clear what his salary is, but we can guarantee it's nowhere remotely close to $8 million.
Since taking over, he's led the Brewers to an 173-117 record, the best of any manager in baseball from 2024-2025. Counsell is 156-134.
Maybe the Cubs should offer Murphy $9 million and fire Counsell, they could improve by 17 wins overnight.
What this comes down to, as always, is that baseball games are decided by the players on the field. Yes, managers can make good and bad decisions. Bochy is probably an above-average manager, as is Counsell. That doesn't mean that they had more influence on the outcome than the players on the field. Sure, it might help in the clubhouse to create a positive atmosphere, but Corey Seager isn't going to hit a home run because he's standing there in the box feeling Bochy's leadership from the dugout.
If you want your team to improve, root for them to find better players, and maybe find the next Pat Murphy, who was a terrible manager nobody wanted to hire, until he was the best manager in baseball.