New Major League Baseball Fan Survey Shows Why We're Heading For A Lockout

Major League Baseball finds itself in a precarious position. 

After years of decline, falling ratings and attendance, baseball is finally back on the upswing. Pace of play rules, banning the shift, increasing star power, and easier access to streaming games have all contributed. Attendance is up, ratings are up, and there's reason for optimism as smaller market teams move into new stadiums or are in the process of finding new ownership.

But the collective bargaining agreement between the league and MLB Players Association expires after the 2026 season, and concerns are high that the owners will lock the players out for an extended period of time during negotiations. In fact, several reports have suggested that owners are willing to lose the entire 2027 season in order to get what they want. 

RELATED: MLB Owners Ready To 'Burn The House Down' And Cancel 2027 Season To Make Themselves Richer

And a new fan survey conducted by The Athletic shows why that's such a dangerous and realistic possibility.

SAN FRANCISCO, CALIFORNIA - JULY 8:  Rob Manfred speaks during the Willie Mays Celebration of Life Ceremony at Oracle Park on July 8, 2024 in San Francisco, California. (Photo by Tony Avelar/San Francisco Giants/Getty Images)

(Getty Images)

MLB Fans Happy With Game, Still Support Salary Cap

With over 14,300 responses, The Athletic's survey found that over 67% of fans were "enthusiastic" or "hopeful" about the state of the game. Just 21% of fans were "upset" or "disappointed" with how MLB is going. That's despite the widespread outrage about the Los Angeles Dodgers attempting to win while many other teams have little interest in trying to compete in a competitive sport. 

That's the good news. Fans are happy with the product they're getting, they believe the game is heading in the right direction, and there's many reasons for optimism moving forward. These results are also significantly better than when they surveyed fans in 2022, which happened during the last lockout. 

Yet there's another question that underlies why the league's owners are almost certainly going to commit to an extended lockout. Because fans are upset with the Dodgers and believe that the "fix" for their spending is a salary cap. While 32% of fans thought LA was "good" for baseball, a majority said the Dodgers are "bad" for the sport. One answer explains the issue with this question.

"I said the Dodgers are good for baseball because having a heel is fun," the article says. "But I believe how they leverage their money can be problematic — especially given that no team responds in kind."

Therein lies the problem. No team responds in kind. Obviously, there are only a few teams that have the market and fan support to spend anywhere close to the money the Dodgers spend. The New York Mets, Yankees, Red Sox, Cubs or Phillies come to mind. And in fact, the Mets have generally outspent the Dodgers since Steve Cohen bought the team. But teams could quite easily spend more on players, be more creative with contracts, or invest heavily in research and development, analytics, and scouting to build their rosters. LA doesn't just dominate with their spending, though that clearly is enormously helpful, they do it with smart signings, targeted depth, and quality evaluation. 

Despite frequently drafting at the bottom of the first round, or sacrificing their first round pick entirely, the Dodgers routinely have a top-5 farm system because of their investments in "soft" areas. They then use that farm system to trade for major league talent, or use their depth to supplant starters when the inevitable injuries hit. Last season, for example, they relied heavily on Justin Wrobleski, Emmet Sheehan, Andy Pages, Miguel Rojas, Enrique Hernandez. When Max Muncy got hurt, Alex Freeland, a top 100 level prospect, stepped in. Hyesong Kim played a valuable reserve role. Dalton Rushing allowed starting catcher Will Smith to get more rest throughout the season. Will Klein was the hero of Game 3 of the World Series. LA hit three home runs in the late innings of Game 7, from Muncy, Rojas, and Smith. That's where teams can "respond in kind," and too many don't. 

Which is why we get these types of answers. When asked if they wanted a salary cap and floor system, nearly 70% of fans said yes. The assumption is that a salary cap will stop the Dodgers, create more parity, and force small market teams to be more competitive. That's not happening. 

Fans look at the NFL, which has worse competitive balance than MLB, and think a cap means that free agents will suddenly flock to Miami or Tampa Bay. But the Dodgers will always spend the maximum, and the Marlins will always spend the minimum. MLB can't nationalize its television rights the same way the NFL can because of wildly different schedules. 

But because fans misunderstand how a salary cap would impact the sport, they're broadly supportive of it. Owners know it, realize they have the opportunity to increase their franchise values and limit their costs, and have saved billions to stop potential losses. Fans are optimistic about the future of the sport, but will that remain the case when owners are canceling games next year? Seems unlikely, yet they'll only have themselves to blame.