Mike Tannenbaum Is Wrong About Predicting Disaster For Aaron Rodgers And The Steelers

Mike Tannebaum should have been wearing a black hooded robe and been armed with a scythe when he offered his best Grim Reaper prediction about Pittsburgh Steelers quarterback Aaron Rodgers and coach Mike Tomlin on ESPN Monday.

Tannenbaum, in the span of about two minutes, basically said Rodgers is washed up and not helping the Steelers get in the playoffs this season, and Tomlin is about to start his final season with the club after a catastrophic failure.

Talk about taking souls two days before Steelers players report for training camp.

Could this be Mike Tomlin's last season in Pittsburgh? (Photo by Joe Sargent/Getty Images)

Mike Tomlin Steelers Days Numbered?

"I think we're on the precipice of Mike Tomlin's last year and let me tell you why," Tannenbaum said on Get Up. "This feels like Andy Reid in 2012 with the Philadelphia Eagles, a very amicable departing of a Hall of Fame coach …"

Lordy.

It's clear Tannenbaum, the former executive vice president for the New York Jets and Miami Dolphins, thinks the Steelers are going off a cliff this season because Rodgers is their starting quarterback.

"The more I think about Aaron Rodgers and the data, it's almost impossible to me that he will play well at 42 years old," Tannenbaum said. "And when we really strip it down ….if we go back over the last three years, we have a great graphic here, he was 26th, look at this, in yards per attempt, and 29th in QBR since 2022."

Tannenbaum noted the only players that were worse over that span were Ryan Tannenill, Bryce Young, Mac Jones and Will Levis.

Philip G. Pavely-Imagn Images

Love Mike Tannenbaum, But He's Wrong

And this is where I tell you I respect what Tannenbaum accomplished during his NFL career. He helped the Jets reach the AFC Championship game two consecutive years in 2009 and 2010. And he helped the Dolphins reach the playoffs in 2016.

But I don't agree with Mike T's prediction about Mike T.

And I don't think Rodgers is about to be the disaster Tannenbaum believes in his final NFL season.

Firstly, Tomlin signed a three-year contract extension with the Steelers in 2024, so he is under contract through the 2027 season. 

And we're talking about the Steelers. They do not spend money and then walk away from people or push people out, least of all their head coaches, of which they've only had three since 1970. 

Tomlin has never had a losing season in 18 years as the Steelers coach, but Tannenbaum, who is using the last three years of Rodgers to make a case against the QB, is not using 18 seasons of data to discuss Tomlin.

Mar 3, 2022; Indianapolis, IN, USA; ESPN NFL Front Office insider analyst Mike Tannenbaum during the NFL Scouting Combine at the Indiana Convention Center. Mandatory Credit: Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports

Mike Tomlin Taking Andy Reid Route?

Tannenbaum compared Tomlin's exit from Pittsburgh to that of Andy Reid in Philly. 

Reid was out in Philadelphia after missing the playoffs two consecutive seasons and then struggling to a 4-12 record in 2012.

The Steelers, who were in the playoffs last season with Russell Wilson as their starter, do not have the look of a 4-12 team at the moment, even with Rodgers as the starter.

And about Rodgers, using the three-year stat thing is just strange in this case. Rodgers ruptured his Achilles in the 2023 regular-season opener. He threw one pass that season.

So we're including that season as one in which he failed to raise his quarterback rating and yards per attempt number?

And, by the way, since when are yards per attempt a super important measure of QBs?

The stat actually speaks to the quality of the offensive line and receivers as much or more than it speaks to the quality of the quarterback.

Mahomes, Brady Examples Of Fake Stats

Last year, Rodgers had a 6.7 yards per attempt average with the New York Jets. And Patrick Mahomes led the Kansas City Chiefs to their third consecutive Super Bowl with a 6.8 yards per attempt average.

Tom Brady won the Super Bowl in Tampa Bay in 2020 and led the NFL in passing yards and touchdown passes in 2021. Before he did that, he averaged 6.6 yards per attempt in his final year with the New England Patriots.

That's not to say Rodgers is about to lead the NFL in passing. But to dismiss him based on the statistical equivalent version of Fake News after a season in which Rodgers was recovering from a season-ending injury seems dubious.

 "If you acquire Aaron Rodgers you get excited and maybe he catches lightning in a bottle," Tannenbaum persisted. "All I'm saying is it's been three years since he's played like Aaron Rodgers.

"He's going to be 42 years old and only Drew Brees and Tom Brady are the only two quarterbacks in the history of football to start a playoff game at that age. And all I'm saying is when you think about it that way, it's highly unlikely that you can take three years worth of one trend and switch it this season."

I love Mike. But not on this one.