Juan Soto To The Yankees Is Being Finalized, A Bad Move For Baseball
Based on numerous reports coming from the winter meetings, it seems like the long-rumored Juan Soto trade is now being finalized.
For weeks, speculation has grown that the New York Yankees would be the strongest suitor for Soto, though discussions had seemed to stall just last week.
READ: JUAN SOTO-TO-YANKEES TALKS REPORTEDLY ON PAUSE WITH MLB WINTER MEETINGS IN NASHVILLE ON DECK
But late Tuesday night, talks intensified, with the deal reportedly nearing completion on Wednesday afternoon. The full terms have now been released, which will send swingman Michael King, 23-year-old prospect Drew Thorpe, Jhony Brito, Randy Vazquez and catcher Kyle Higashioka to San Diego for Soto and outfielder Trent Grisham.
Yankees fans will be overjoyed to be bringing in Soto, who despite being just 25-years-old, is already one of the most accomplished hitters in the sport. And the Padres will be getting back some much needed pitching depth while clearing payroll for 2024. In theory, the deal makes sense for both sides.
But at the same time, it's a tremendous loss for the sport.
SAN DIEGO - Juan Soto celebrates with Manny Machado of the San Diego Padres after hitting a home run in the first inning against the Arizona Diamondbacks on April 3 at Petco Park. (Photo by Matt Thomas/San Diego Padres/Getty Images)
Juan Soto Trade Shows Small Market Teams Will Forever Be Small Market Teams
When the Padres traded for Soto at the deadline in 2022, it was widely hailed as a stroke of genius for general manager A.J. Preller and team ownership. After years of being stuck in baseball purgatory, the Padres were going for it. Manny Machado had agreed to a massive contract, Yu Darvish anchored the rotation, Eric Hosmer contributed, well, something, and they'd already signed Fernando Tatis Jr. to a lengthy extension, ensuring he never escaped for richer pastures.
Sure enough, the Padres snuck into the postseason and made the NLCS, taking that momentum into a busy 2022-2023 offseason. Despite pursuing Aaron Judge and Trea Turner, they settled for adding Xander Bogaerts on another 12-year deal.
Suddenly, the San Diego Padres were pushing people around with their willingness to spend money. But a disappointing 2023 thanks to poor luck, mediocre depth and underperformance from Tatis, Machado and Bogaerts kept them home in October. Then team owner Peter Seidler passed away.
And now the seemingly imminent Soto trade. Despite retaining most of their offensive talent, it still feels like the end of a very short era.
It was good for baseball for a small market team like the Padres to show a willingness to spend money. For too long fans have defended baseball owners and their desperation to save every possible dollar at the expense of building the best team. Seidler took the exact opposite path.
Sure, it didn't work out for 2023, but the Padres needing to trade Soto for pennies on the dollar to the Yankees of all teams to free up salary space shows without one person pushing for it, teams will always revert to crying poor.
And the rich get richer.
Padres Get Minimal Return For Generational Talent
While the Yankees side of the trade is an obvious win; they now have a left handed superstar bat to pair with Aaron Judge and Giancarlo Stanton, the Padres side makes significantly less sense.
Teams are now obsessed with years of control, where certainty over cost and below market prices provide value. That's partially why Soto's being traded; he has just one year of control left before hitting the open market. So it would stand to reason that the one major league player the Padres are getting back would have years and years of control left, right?
Not exactly. King, who will turn 29 in May, is nearly four years older than Soto. And he'll reach free agency after the 2025 season. That means he has one more year of team control for San Diego than Soto does.
To be fair to King, he was excellent in 2023 in the Bronx. He set a career high in innings, struck out nearly 11 batters per nine innings, and had an era well under 3. But he's going to become a free agent 12 months after Soto. How does that help San Diego build for the long term?
Thorpe is a big name for Yankees fans, but most outside evaluators put him outside the top 100 prospects. He's also only about 22 months younger than Soto and only made five starts at AA. Jhony Brito is actually older than Soto, with a poor ERA and strikeout rate in his first MLB season. Higashioka adds catching depth, while Randy Vazquez had a FIP near 5.
San Diego needs pitching depth, badly, but there's a non-zero chance that King, Thorpe and the other players in the deal never contribute as much WAR in their Padres careers as Soto does next season alone.
Yankees Take Advantage With Juan Soto Deal
So why are the Padres making this trade?
To save money.
Fans should want teams to spend more; after all, it's not our money. Having more teams spend is good for baseball, as evidenced by the Padres selling out more than half their games. They still have Tatis, Machado and Bogaerts, but losing Soto inarguably takes some of the shine off the excitement for 2024.
And as they're showing by taking advantage of the fact that another team needs to shed salary, the Yankees will always benefit from being the Yankees.