Even MLB Playoff Teams Aren't Trying To Win As Many Games As Possible

Tuesday marked the start of the 2025 Major League Baseball postseason, and despite concerns over the big-spending teams dominating the field, just four of the eight teams that led in payroll ahead of the regular season made the playoffs.

And in an era where fears of "superteams" dominate, like the Los Angeles Dodgers who were set to "ruin baseball" after adding to their World Series-winning roster, it's anything but as the calendar turns to October. The Cleveland Guardians and Detroit Tigers are playing a wild card series, despite carrying payrolls in the bottom half of the sport. 

Detroit ranks 16th, for example, and Cleveland just 25th. Cleveland won the division and the right to host the wild card series between the two teams. Though, thanks to the brilliance of starter Tarik Skubal, Detroit jumped out to a 1-0 series lead in the best of three format.

This isn't an accident, it's strategy. That's the conclusion from a lengthy new report from ESPN's Jeff Passan into the postseason field, which examines decision-making from team front offices and ownership. And it demonstrates a problem with the league's expanded playoffs, free agency, and roster building.

HOUSTON, TEXAS - OCTOBER 01: Tarik Skubal #29 of the Detroit Tigers reacts recording a strikeout against the Houston Astros in the sixth inning during Game One of the Wild Card Series at Minute Maid Park on October 01, 2024 in Houston, Texas. (Photo by Tim Warner/Getty Images)

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Passan's report involved speaking to several small market baseball operations staffers, who explained that there's little incentive for them to build past a certain level.

"At that point," a source told Passan, "it's the law of diminishing returns. I don't care if we win 85 games or 105 as long as we get our ticket to the dance. If we can win and operate with some sense of financial restraint, we're killing two birds with one stone."

That's the priority, and thanks to advancements in modern analytics and pitch design, it's even easier to get away with. 

The New York Mets spent nearly $340 million on player payroll entering the season, before accounting for luxury tax penalties and in season trades. They signed Juan Soto to a $765 million contract, the biggest in sports history. They won 83 games anyway and missed the playoffs. 

"There's nothing super about us," an exec with the Milwaukee Brewers told Passan. But they finished the season with the league's best record and could be favorites to win the World Series, thanks to securing home field advantage throughout the playoffs. They had the 23rd highest payroll in the league.

The Dodgers, meanwhile, are hosting a best-of-three wild card series against the Cincinnati Reds, who had the 22nd highest payroll. After talk that they might win 120 games, LA won just 93 and at one point, blew a nine-game division lead. 

This isn't necessarily a good thing; fans should want their teams to build the best possible team, which can frequently involve signing free agents. The third wild card spot makes it possible for more fanbases to enjoy October baseball. But it makes it more likely that they do less to get there.