Heisman Trophy Race: LSU's Jayden Daniels Has The Stats, But Oregon's Bo Nix Has The Lead And 1 More Critical Game To Go
The statistics LSU quarterback Jayden Daniels has accumulated are truly breathtaking.
Of the 37 quarterbacks who have won the Heisman Trophy since its inception in 1935, none have a passing efficiency quotient or total yards per game average better than Daniels. Passing efficiency wasn't around for many of the previous QB winners, but it has been applied to their numbers.
P.E. remains one of the most comprehensive statistics there is as it weighs several numbers. And Daniels leads the nation with a 208.0 P.E. mark that is significantly ahead of the 189.8 by Oregon quarterback and Heisman odds favorite Bo Nix.
Daniels also has the NCAA record for P.E., breaking the previous mark of 207.6 set last season by Coastal Carolina's Grayson McCall. And Daniels is not likely to play in LSU's bowl.
Jayden Daniels of LSU became the first QB in FBS history to throw for more than 350 yards and rush for more than 200 in the same game when he passed for 372 and ran for 234 in a 52-35 win over Florida on Nov. 11 at Tiger Stadium in Baton Rouge. (Photo by John Korduner via Getty Images)
Daniels completed 236 of 327 passes (.721 completion percentage) for 3,812 yards and 40 touchdowns with four interceptions this season to get that efficiency number. Nix has hit 315 of 401 passes (.785 completion percentage) for 3,906 yards and 37 touchdowns with two interceptions. That's three more touchdowns by Daniels out of 74 fewer passes, which is pretty efficient.
Washington QB Michael Penix Jr. 3rd In Heisman Trophy Odds
Washington quarterback Michael Penix Jr. is third in the current Heisman Trophy odds. He is 11th in passing efficiency at 163.3 (280 of 427, .655) for 3,899 yards (2nd nationally) and 32 touchdowns with eight interceptions.
A senior transfer from Arizona State via Los Angeles, Daniels leads the nation in another deep-dive statistic - literally. In downfield passing, he is 35 of 55 (.636 completion percentage) on throws of 20 yards or more for 1,347 yards and 22 touchdowns without an interception. So, he's not dinking and dunking.
Bo Nix of Oregon leads the nation in passing yards (3,906) and in passing yards per game (325.5). He also leads the odds to win the Heisman Trophy on Dec. 9. (Photo by Alika Jenner/Getty Images)
A senior transfer from Auburn via Birmingham, Nix is 23 of 44 (.523 completion percentage) on throws of 20-plus yards for 847 yards, 12 touchdowns and one interception. Daniels' depth of target averages 10.3 yards to 7.0 for Nix and 11.3 for Penix.
Oregon's Bo Nix Doesn't Have The Stats, But He Has The Odds
But that's just passing. Where Daniels really blows away the competition - statistically - is with his dual threat ability. Daniels is the No. 1 rushing quarterback in the nation and 26th overall with 1,134 yards on 135 rushes for a 94.5-yard average per game. And that includes his lost yardage on sacks. Nix has just 159 yards on 47 carries for 13.2 yards a game.
Daniels has thrown or passed for 20 yards or more on 90 plays this season. Nix has done that just 48 times. Penix has 62 such plays. Daniels also leads the nation in total offense with 412.2 yards a game with Nix No. 2 at 338.8 a game. And Daniels leads the country in points responsible for with 302 to No. 2 Nix with 262.
But with one week to go before the deadline next Monday to vote on the Heisman Trophy, Nix leads Daniels and Penix comfortably in betting odds. The Heisman Trophy will be presented on Saturday, Dec. 9 (8 p.m., ESPN) at the Lincoln Center in New York City.
Heisman Trophy Betting Odds
Here are the current Heisman Trophy odds by six betting outlets, and Nix is ahead significantly in all:
BET 365: Nix -150, Daniels +110, Penix +1600.
FanDuel: Nix -180, Daniels +140, Penix +1600.
BET MGM: Nix -150, Daniels +120, Penix +1,600.
Caesars: Nix -180, Daniels +125, Penix +1,800.
PointsBet: Nix -149, Daniels +115, Penix +1,600.
Vegas Insider: Nix -165, Daniels +135, Penix +1,600.
So, why is Bo Nix the favorite at the moment?
He does lead the nation in passing yards with 3,906 and in passing yards per game at 325.5.
Why Does Oregon's Bo Nix Lead LSU's Jayden Daniels?
But that is not it. Lately, and the Heisman is all about "lately," Nix has been playing in bigger games and will be playing in a bigger game Saturday because he is on a higher ranked team. The Heisman Trophy most often goes to the best player on the best team - not necessarily the best player.
Oregon (11-1, 8-1 Pac-12) is No. 6 in the College Football Rankings going into Tuesday's night's latest rankings. LSU (9-3, 6-2 SEC) is No. 14. Oregon plays for the Pac-12 championship against No. 4 Washington (12-0, 9-0 Pac-12) on Friday (8 p.m., ABC). LSU is done for the season other than its bowl game, which will be after the Heisman Trophy voting.
Last Saturday, Nix completed 33 of 40 for 367 yards and two touchdowns while rushing six times for 31 yards and a touchdown in a convincing, 31-7 win over No. 16 Oregon State (8-4, 5-4 Pac-12).
Daniels, on the other hand, did not have one of his better games in a 42-30 win over an unranked Texas A&M (7-5, 4-4 SEC) with an interim coach. He hit just 7 of 10 passes in the first half for 52 yards before finishing with four touchdowns amid an otherwise pedestrian performance of 16-of-24 passing for 235 yards.
LSU's Jayden Daniels Playing Weaker Opponents Lately
This was, however, against one of the nation's best defenses, which Nix rarely sees in the Pac-12. Still, Daniels' last three games have come against questionable competition - other than A&M's defense. Daniels became the first player in FBS history to throw for more than 350 yards and rush for more than 200 on Nov. 11 in a 52-35 win over Florida. But the Gators finished 5-7 and 3-5 in the SEC. Then LSU beat Georgia State (6-6, 3-5 Sun Belt) by 56-14 on Nov. 18 before the A&M game.
LSU's only ranked opponent since Oct. 14 was No. 8 Alabama on Nov. 4. The Crimson Tide won 42-28. Daniels left the game in the third quarter with LSU down 42-28 following a hard tackle by Dallas Turner that drew an unnecessary roughness penalty.
Nix did complete 24 of 29 passes for 404 yards and six touchdowns in a 49-13 win over lowly Arizona State (3-9, 2-7 Pac-12) on Nov. 18. But all six touchdowns came in the first half, and he left early in the third quarter. On Oct. 28 at then-No. 13 Utah, Nix hit 24 of 31 passes for 248 yards in a 35-6 win. Utah is no longer ranked, but it did finish 8-4 and 5-4 in Pac-12.
LSU may not have a game this week, but its media relations department came out strong on Monday with a well-timed, separate page on the LSU athletics website devoted to Daniels winning the Heisman at www.lsusports.net/thatkidjayden/.
"No player in college football compares to Jayden Daniels," the page proclaims.
Statistically, no, but those who cover LSU closely locally realize Daniels may not win because Oregon is having a better season and that season continues Saturday.
Hunt Palmer of 104.5 ESPN in Baton Rouge has said he thinks Nix will win.
Baton Rouge Advocate columnist Scott Rabalais, who is a Heisman voter and voting chairman for Louisiana, realizes Nix could win as well.
"After the weekend, Daniels is the consensus second choice behind Bo Nix," Rabalais wrote on Monday. "Daniels' biggest problems are his season is done, while Nix and Penix will play each other Friday, and Daniels' LSU team is 9-3. A lot of voters gravitate toward voting for whom they perceive as the best player on the best team. Daniels isn't that."
Jayden Daniels is the nation's leading rushing quarterback with 1,134 yards. (Photo by Jonathan Bachman/Getty Images)
But Jayden Daniels is clearly the best player, and he has clearly proven that on a team that has proven to be clearly not as good as Oregon or Washington. The fact that LSU is 9-3 because it has one of the nation's worst defenses should be an argument for Daniels - not against. Yes, LSU plays Pac-12 defense, SEC fans. The Tigers are 101 in the nation in total defense with 409.2 yards given up a game. Washington is No. 93 at 399.8 yards allowed.
Heisman Trophy Will Come Down To Bo Nix Or Jayden Daniels
And Oregon plays SEC defense as we remember it. The Ducks are No. 15 nationally in total defense with more than a football field less yards allowed a game than the Tigers at 306.9.
Daniels also does not have better than an average running back, which is one reason why he runs so much. Nix has running back Bucky Irving (1,043 yards). Penix has Dillon Johnson (961 yards). LSU's leading rusher after Daniels is Logan Diggs with 652 yards.
Daniels clearly has significantly less help than Nix and Penix.
And unless Bo Nix or Michael Penix Jr. suddenly play like Jayden Daniels by air and by land on Friday, my Heisman vote will stay with Jayden Daniels.