Guessing Game. No One Knows Anything About NFL Mock Draft Season

With the first wave of NFL free agency over, it’s officially mock draft season. Granted, it has felt that way for fans of losing teams since late December. 

As analysts like Mel Kiper Jr., Daniel Jeremiah, and Todd McShay roll out their projections, frustration from fans has already begun to follow. 

Kansas City Chiefs fans, in particular, have pushed back on outlets like The Athletic for mocking an offensive tackle to the team at No. 9. Detroit Lions fans see a clear need at left tackle, yet some projections slot a cornerback at No. 15. Jets fans are not convinced Ty Simpson is the answer at quarterback, even with their second first-round pick.

But we are here to remind those who are hot and bothered that mock drafts offer limited predictive value beyond the most obvious picks. No one knows anything. Every year, even the most well-connected reporters miss on a significant share of the first round.

There’s even a case where the most connected insiders produce the least reliable mocks. Teams have no incentive to reveal their preferences during the pre-draft process. Misdirection is part of the strategy, increasing the chances that a targeted player falls.

Hopefully, that helps explain the conflicting reports.

LAS VEGAS, NV - APRIL 28: ÒThe Pick is InÓ graphic is shown during round one of the 2022 NFL Draft on April 28, 2022 in Las Vegas, Nevada. (Photo by Kevin Sabitus/Getty Images)

On Tuesday morning, ESPN’s Mel Kiper Jr. mocked Jeremiyah Love to the Tennessee Titans at No. 4. Later that day, Louis Riddick said on air that the Titans are high on the Notre Dame running back.

"They love him, they absolutely love him," Riddick said.

Hours later, ESPN’s Adam Schefter pushed back, saying it "would surprise" him if Tennessee drafted Love. "The Jeremiyah Love watch starts at 5 with the Giants," Schefter said.

All three work for the same network. All three have strong sources. At least one of them is working with bad information.

That will continue up to draft night.

This isn’t meant to belittle the mock draft industry. It remains one of the most engaging forms of sports content. Mock drafts drive clicks, reactions, and endless revisions.

OutKick’s Dan Zaksheske acknowledges the appeal while keeping it in perspective.

"Many of the big mock drafters in sports media take their mocks very seriously. I am not one of them. I openly admit I have no idea what these teams are going to do and I make up the entire mock draft as I go along," Zaksheske said. "Why? Because it's much more fun that way."

Indeed.

KANSAS CITY, MO - APRIL 29: ESPN draft analyst Mel Kiper Jr. during the third day of the NFL Draft on April 29, 2023 at Union Station in Kansas City, MO. (Photo by Scott Winters/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)

Each year, 3,000 to 4,000 players are eligible for the draft. Outside a small group, most mock drafters do not have the time or resources to review those prospects.

Take Penn State guard Olaivavega Ioane, for example. He appears in many first-round projections. Do we really think most mock drafters are watching tape of an interior offensive lineman, wondering for which type of offense he's best suited? Of course not.

And, again, the experts are often just as wrong as the casuals. Case in point, NFL scouts paid to review college players bat such low averages.

For example, Puka Nacua is arguably the best wide receiver in the NFL. The Rams selected him in the fifth round at pick 177th overall in 2023. Before the draft, NFL.com projected him as "average backup or special-teamer."

Here were just some of the receivers who were drafted ahead of him: Jonathan Mingo, Jalin Hyatt, Josh Downs, Michael Wilson, and Charlie Jones.

No one knows anything.

The Dolphins selected Tua Tagovailoa fifth overall six seasons ago. This month, they opted to eat $99.2 million in dead cap money over the 2026 and 2027 seasons just so he wouldn't play for the team ever again. 

All we are saying his don't shoot the messenger. Don't send the mock drafters mean tweets. They are just guessing. So are the teams.