The Future Of Hitting In Major League Baseball Is Here

Through the halfway point in the 2024 Major League Baseball season, offensive statistics have been down significantly from 2023.

The reasons for this are varied. Pitching has become harder to hit than it's ever been, with relievers routinely throwing 100 mph and advances in technology creating more efficient and effective pitches. Hitters have also prioritized an approach that leads to more power, but also an increased number of whiffs. Combine the two, and runs per game have dropped from 9.24 in 2023 to 8.72 in 2024. Half a run per game may not sound like much, but over the course of the season it adds up to nearly 2,400 fewer runs scored across the league.

READ: Major League Baseball Has A Scoring Problem On Its Hands

For a sport trying to increase its popularity, excitement and pace of play, scoring is moving in the opposite direction than MLB would like to see. But new technology is hoping to give hitters a bit of a leg up in redressing the balance.

Toronto - New York Yankees right fielder Aaron Judge (99) hits a two run home run against the Toronto Blue Jays in September of 2023 at Rogers Centre. Photo: Dan Hamilton-USA TODAY Sports

New Tech Allows MLB Players To See Simulated Actual Pitches

One of the most significant advantages hitters can have over pitchers is familiarity. By now, the third time through the order penalty has been well established; pitchers generally struggle more with hitters as they face them multiple times in a game. And it makes sense, since hitters have had the opportunity to see how a pitcher's repertoire looks in the same game.

Well new technology, a pitching machine called Trajekt Arc, is rapidly gaining steam across Major League Baseball in hopes of providing a version of that experience. Trajekt aims to allow coaches to program in the characteristics of individual pitches based on real world data, then have hitters in batting cages face off against a simulation of an MLB pitcher.

According to an ESPN report, hitters generally believe that the technology could help them prepare for facing the parade of flame-throwing relievers with unhittable sliders.

"This is the first piece of technology we've had that truly benefits us," one anonymous position player said. "Before this we had nothing."  

Unsurprisingly, some pitchers aren't happy about it. New York Yankees reliever Caleb Ferguson, for example, isn't a fan. 

"It's impossible for a pitcher to mimic the at-bat," he said. "We don't even really get the chance at all to try to have that upper hand where you can come in and face a guy and read the result, see what's gonna happen if I face whoever. But they could be hitting my fastball for the next three hours? That's not fair."

Though the advantages may not be as substantial as advancements in statistics and tracking have been for pitchers.

Pitching Machine Helps, But Not A Panacea 

The machine reportedly weighs around 1,500 pounds, meaning hitters can only use it at their home stadiums. Some ballparks also weren't built to house a machine that bulky 60 feet six inches away in a batting cage. 

It also costs $15,000 per month to use, with a multi-year commitment required. Meaning that only 19 of the 30 teams have signed on. Teams are also only allowed to use their own internal data from Hawk-Eye, Rapsodo or TrackMan devices. Videos though, can be used to create a holographic version of an actual pitcher and replicate his arm slot within the machine.

Here's how Gerrit Cole looks, for example.

Jason Heyward from the Los Angeles Dodgers said that some representations are great, but there are real world variances the machine can't quite pick up.

"It really varies," Heyward said. "Some look similar, some don't. You're seeing them throw the ball, but I still think it's completely different in the game because there's room for error. Pitchers mean to throw a ball here, and they throw it here. They mean to throw it here, and they throw it here, all that kind of stuff. So I think that's where it's not very realistic. It's like video game pinpoint every time. But still -- just getting a visual, an idea, of what someone has and how that may come out is cool. It's helpful, for sure."

Scoring is down across the league, even with some teams using this technology. But it's possible that offense would be down even more substantially if not for the ability to see pitches ahead of time. In 2019, for example, before Trajekt Arc existed, the gap between OPS as a home team and road team was 18 points. In 2024, it's 21 points. Obviously, that's a very marginal difference, but for a league desperate to generate more scoring, that many more baserunners or hard-hit balls over the course of a season adds up.

And that's before the other 11 teams inevitably catch up. Or more technological advances come to give hitters some hope. They certainly need all the help they can get.