Florida State's Insane Loss Changes College Football Playoff Picture

How the mighty have fallen. 

The Florida State Seminoles lost late Friday night to the North Carolina State Wolfpack, in just about the ugliest fashion imaginable. With the game close, late in the fourth quarter, NC State lined up to punt on 4th and 12. And the ball quite literally hit a Seminoles player in the helmet and bounced all the way back to the punter for a muffed punt recovery. That is not an exaggeration, it's literally exactly what happened. The punter recovered a muffed punt that hit off someone's head.

Still, FSU managed to stop the Wolfpack offense, getting a quick three-and-out. Then they muffed another punt. Seriously. This time, though, NC State recovered at the FSU 16-yard-line, then punched it in for a 21-11 lead. Still, FSU wasn't quite dead yet. In just 31 seconds, the Seminoles drove 31 yards down the field, in position to attempt a 51-yard field goal. Which they missed. Fittingly, on the last possession of the game, Thomas Castellanos threw an interception to officially end it.

Ugly. As ugly as it gets. And while any hope of a successful season had long since passed, FSU's embarrassing loss Friday night still may have impacted the College Football Playoff race. And it should.

TALLAHASSEE, Fla. - Florida State Seminoles defensive back Earl Little Jr. against the Alabama Crimson Tide on Aug. 30, 2025 at Doak S. Campbell Stadium. Photo: Melina Myers-Imagn Images

FSU Loss Hurts Alabama's Case For At-Large Bid

So how does a 21-11 loss by a now 5-6 Florida State team against a mediocre NC State team impact the College Football Playoff? Because this is the same FSU team that handily beat the Alabama Crimson Tide in the first week of the season. Really handily. 

FSU averaged 6.1 yards per play to Alabama's 4.7. The Tide's vaunted rushing attack put up just 87 yards on 3.0 yards per run. It wasn't even a fluky, turnover-driven loss either. The only turnover of the game belonged to the Seminoles. Put simply, FSU's postgame win expectancy, based on how the game played out, was 95.6 percent. They were the better team, and they dominated.

Since that game, FSU is now 4-6. They're 2-6 in the ACC. They're 15 out of 17 ACC teams, behind 3-7 Stanford and 3-7 Virginia Tech. That FSU team completely dominated Alabama. And despite Bama's loss to Oklahoma this past Saturday, the Tide is still in the top-10 of the College Football Playoff poll, and is squarely in position to reach the playoff.

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But what happens if there are some upsets, like, say, the USC Trojans beating the Oregon Ducks in Eugene? Would a 10-2 Alabama team, that lost to a woeful FSU team be worthy of making the 12-team field over USC, or even Oregon? Or what happens if Bama sneaks into the SEC Championship Game with a Texas upset win over Texas A&M, then loses to Georgia? Does a 10-3 Alabama team deserve to make the field over another 10-2 team? Like, Notre Dame for example. 

Yes, Alabama has played like one of the best teams in the country for most of the last few months. But with each passing day, that loss to Florida State looks worse and worse and worse. And it might cost the Tide a playoff berth.