Falcons Have Ruined The NFL's Winner-Take-All Hopes For The NFC South

The NFL seemingly had it all figured out when it released the schedule for Week 18 and set the Carolina Panthers at Tampa Bay Buccaneers as the leadoff game on Saturday in a game to decide the NFC South title.

The NFL loves this kind of stuff.

Panthers at Bucs for their division title followed by the Seattle Seahawks at San Francisco 49ers on Saturday evening for the NFC West title and the No. 1 seed in the NFC.

Falcons Finale Could Decide Division

But a funny thing happened to the kind of winner-take-all show the league craves on the regular-season's final weekend: The Atlanta Falcons got involved.

The Falcons, you see, beat the Los Angeles Rams on Monday Night Football. And that ruined everything for the league's drama department because it is no longer true that the winner of the Buccaneers and Panthers game will absolutely win the division title.

The fact is, if the Buccaneers beat the Panthers, they will both own an 8-9 record after splitting their home-and-home series. But that will not automatically give the Bucs the division title.

Sep 21, 2025; Tampa, Florida, USA; Tampa Bay Buccaneers quarterback Baker Mayfield (6) reacts after a ply against the New York Jets in the fourth quarter at Raymond James Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Nathan Ray Seebeck-Imagn Images

Buccaneers Cannot Win Title Saturday 

The Bucs need help.

That's because after beating the Rams, the Falcons also have a possibility of finishing with an 8-9 record if they win their season-finale against the New Orleans Saints in Atlanta.

So, with the top three teams in the division at 8-9, the Panthers would win the division based on head-to-head matches among the three teams.

Said another way, the Buccaneers must win and hope the Falcons lose to win the NFC South.

Dec 21, 2025; Charlotte, North Carolina, USA; Carolina Panthers head coach Dave Canales celebrates with quarterback Bryce Young (9) after a game against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Bank of America Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Bob Donnan-Imagn Images

(Bob Donnan-Imagn Images)

Only Panthers Can Win And Be In

Said another way again, the Panthers can win the division with a victory over Tampa Bay or even with a loss to Tampa Bay and a Falcons win over New Orleans.

That is not the if-then uncertainty the NFL wanted for this season-finale. 

We must blame the league's three-team tiebreaker formula for this, this, mess. It's about gauging the round-robin head-to-head records among the three teams that would decide the thing.

The Panthers beat the Falcons twice and if they lose Saturday, they would have split with the Bucs. The Bucs would have split with both teams. And the Falcons split with the Bucs but got swept by the Panthers.

So the Panthers win the division by virtue of their 3-1 record against the other two teams.

Dec 8, 2024; Minneapolis, Minnesota, USA; Atlanta Falcons head coach Raheem Morris looks on before the game against the Minnesota Vikings at U.S. Bank Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Matt Krohn-Imagn Images

Falcons Can't Win Title But Still Matter

That means the Buccaneers cannot win the division on Saturday. Only the Panthers can win the division if they beat Tampa Bay.

But if the Panthers lose, both teams must wait until Sunday afternoon for the result of the Falcons game. 

The Falcons, which cannot win the division, may still decide the winner of the division.

So much for the cool winner-take-all stuff. It only applies to the Panthers.