The Dodgers Won The Trade Deadline, And Failed To Fix Their Biggest Problem

For a team comfortably in first place as the calendar turns to August, the Los Angeles Dodgers have had a disappointing season.

The Dodgers committed over a billion dollars to free agents or extensions over the offseason. They signed Shohei Ohtani, Yoshinobu Yamamoto and Teoscar Hernandez, and traded for Tyler Glasnow. They expected Walker Buehler to return from Tommy John surgery, had exciting second year starter Bobby Miller returning, and a fearsome lineup with Mookie Betts, Freddie Freeman, Max Muncy and Will Smith combining with the free agency acquisitions.

Yet on July 30th, in an important division game, they started Nick Ahmed, Cavan Biggio and Kike Hernandez, and had Gavin Lux hitting near the top of the lineup. Instead of Glasnow, Yamamoto, Miller, Buehler and Clayton Kershaw, the rotation has been Glasnow, Kershaw, Gavin Stone and a rotating cast of rookies.

How'd this happen? Injuries, everywhere. Betts was hit in the hand by a pitch in mid-June, and has yet to return. Freddie Freeman's son has a health issue that's forced him to miss the last week, Yamamoto had a strained rotator cuff and won't return until late-August, at best. Buehler was so ineffective with diminished stuff that he went to a private pitching coach in Florida to try and figure out his struggles. Bobby Miller made two starts and also got hurt, then had an ERA over 8 in his return to Major League Baseball, and currently finds himself in AAA. Max Muncy's missed over two months with what the club originally described as a "minor" oblique issue. The latest update from manager Dave Roberts was that his recovery had "stagnated," always a good sign for one of the team's most important players. 

The Dodgers realized they needed to add reinforcements, so they were, predictably, active at the trade deadline. Tommy Edman, Michael Kopech, Amed Rosario, Kevin Kiermaier were brought in to provide depth, and then the biggest splash of any team: starter Jack Flaherty, who's been one of the best pitchers in the sport in 2024.

READ: Big Names Stay Put, Dodgers Make Biggest Splash At Trade Deadline

Yet the Dodgers lost 6-5 to the San Diego Padres on Tuesday night, and in doing so exposed that despite their additions, they still failed to address arguably their biggest problem.

Jul 30, 2024; San Diego, California, USA; Los Angeles Dodgers relief pitcher Blake Treinen (49) throws a pitch during the ninth inning against the San Diego Padres at Petco Park. Mandatory Credit: David Frerker-USA TODAY Sports

Dodgers Bullpen Needs Help – A Lot Of Help

The Dodgers jumped out to a 5-0 lead in Tuesday's game, but the Padres quickly scored three runs against Tyler Glasnow to keep the game close. Still, the Dodgers entered the bottom of the 9th inning with a 5-3 lead, needing three outs to secure an important division win.

Closer Evan Phillips has struggled, so Roberts turned to Blake Treinen, formerly one of the most dominant relievers in baseball. Manny Machado hit his first pitch around 420 feet to make it a 5-4 game. Two batters later, Jackson Merrill launched another massive home run to right field to tie the score. 

The Dodgers failed to even advance the ghost runner against Robert Suarez, and walked the Dodgers and Alex Vesia off on a 74mph single through a drawn in infield.

Sure, blown leads happen. But this was the third time the Dodgers had blown a five-run lead in the past thirteen games. Getting Jack Flaherty solidifies the starting rotation, especially in the event that Buehler, Miller or Yamamoto don't return at their previous levels. But the biggest issue in Los Angeles is that the team's bullpen has been, for lack of a better word, atrocious.

Since the middle of June, the Dodgers bullpen has a 5.00 ERA, good for 25th in MLB. Evan Phillips, one of the game's most effective relievers over the past two and a half years, has allowed 14 hits, 10 runs and four homers in his past 10 games, good for an 11.74 ERA. Starting July 1st, Phillips has allowed an opposing batting line of .378/.425/.757. Basically, opposing hitters have turned into peak Barry Bonds when Phillips is pitching. He's faced 16 left-handed hitters in that time frame and allowed seven hits, three of which were home runs. Lefties are hitting .467/.500/1.200 against Phillips this month. 

Blake Treinen's now given up three home runs in his past two innings. Daniel Hudson has generally been effective, but was instrumental in another blown game against the Houston Astros. Alex Vesia's velocity is down roughly two miles per hour from earlier in the season, and unsurprisingly, he's given up runs in his last few appearances. Brusdar Graterol, yet to pitch this year while recovering from injury, gave up five runs in a rehab assignment.

At this point, Roberts' most trusted relievers might journeyman Anthony Banda and an even bigger journeyman, Brent Honeywell. So what did the Dodgers do to fix the bullpen at the deadline? They acquired Michael Kopech.

Except Kopech has a 4.74 ERA this year, is walking nearly five hitters per nine innings, and is giving up homers at an alarming rate. That sounds exactly like the current iteration of the Dodgers bullpen.

Positive Regression Coming?

The Dodgers front office knows what they're doing, and have historically been one of the best organizations at getting the most out of their pitchers. They also know that the best predictor of future results is underlying data, not past performance.

But the bullpen's 4.69 FIP since June 15th doesn't exactly inspire confidence that positive regression as a result of better luck is coming. Phillips, Treinen, Hudson and Vesia were supposed to form the core of the back half of the Dodgers bullpen. None have pitched particularly well.

Bullpens are notoriously difficult to judge or predict. Relievers are unreliable, inconsistent and prone to extreme swings in small samples. All teams can do is accumulate as much talent as possible and hope for the best. The Dodgers thought they had, and they clearly haven't. Now the deadline has passed and it's too late to fix it.

For an organization with a World Series-or-bust mindset, unless they're able to find better and more consistent performances quickly, it's rapidly heading towards another "bust" season.