With Kyle Tucker Signing, Are The 2026 Los Angeles Dodgers The Best Team Ever?

The Los Angeles Dodgers did it again. Late Thursday night, news broke that they'd signed the best available free agent on the market, Kyle Tucker, and in the process broke the baseball internet. 

Outrage. Crying. Anger. Bargaining. Denial. Astros fans acting as though this somehow excused their cheating scandal in 2017. Salary caps. Lockouts. All of it, and so much more, erupted on social media. Opposing fans are furious. Bizarrely, NFL writers and commentators seemed to be the most upset, despite the NFL having the worst competitive balance of any major sport. Somehow, this never matters. Wonder why. 

But before getting into that, it's worth examining what the Tucker signing actually means for the Dodgers, Major League Baseball, and the other teams in the league. 

Tucker is a very good player, one who derives most of his value from being above average at most things, though not exceptional at any one thing. Since becoming a full-time player in 2021, in his worst full season, he was still 30% better than league average on offense. In an era of elevated strikeouts, he's an outlier, punching out just 88 times in 2025 with 94 walks and intentional walks. Though he has power, hitting 30 homers in 2021 and 2022, his .464 slugging percentage in 2025 ranked just 54th in MLB among players with more than 400 plate appearances. He's never had a season with five wins above replacement or more, though his 2024 season would have exceeded that threshold if not for injuries. That's the other issue. He's missed 110 games the last two years with injuries, though they were mostly flukes like a shin fracture from fouling a ball off his foot.

Put it all together, and you have a very, very good player with some reason for concern, who's more of a complimentary star as opposed to franchise game changer. Which is why he agreed to a four-year contract, instead of the 10-year deal most expected. Does signing a player like that mean that the 2026 season isn't worth playing? Does it mean the Dodgers have automatically won the World Series? 

Former Chicago Cubs right fielder Kyle Tucker. Mandatory Credit: David Banks-Imagn Images

Fans Are Wrong About Dodgers, Kyle Tucker Signing

Yes, of course. The season is over. Cancel everything. Cancel the 2027 season too. It's all finished.

Sarcasm aside, while signing Tucker is the ultimate sign of the Dodgers' financial might and advantages, it doesn't meaningfully increase their odds of winning the World Series. Few projections are out yet, but LA's chances of winning a third straight title went from somewhere around 17-18% on Thursday morning to about 18-19% after adding Kyle Tucker. Baseball teams are too evenly matched for one team to enter the season with a 35-40% chance of winning a championship like in the NFL. 

Small sample-size playoff series in baseball are too volatile for predictable postseason dominance. It's easy to forget now, but the very same fans demanding a lockout and salary cap were, just 16 months ago, calling the Dodgers "chokers" with one "Mickey Mouse ring" to their name. Entering 2024, LA won 100 games five times in seven seasons (shortened COVID season included), and had no full season championships to show for it. The 2022 team was one of the best ever assembled, winning 111 games with a +334 run differential. They won one postseason game and were eliminated by the San Diego Padres. 

The Dodgers in 2025 finished four games behind the Milwaukee Brewers for the best record in baseball, winning just 93 games. Despite their big spending, their winning percentage has dropped in each of the last few seasons, from .685 to .617 to .605 to .574. Does that sound like the type of dominance that requires the entire sport to reset its model? Of course not. 

The difference between 2024 and 2025? LA has had postseason success. Which isn't so much a function of spending as it is a combination of some level of randomness, fortunate timing, luck, and talent. It might be hard to believe, but since 2022, the Dodgers are third in MLB in spending on payroll behind the Mets and Yankees. Those two teams have zero titles to show for it. The Yankees at least made the World Series once, but the Mets have missed the postseason in two of the last four years. In 2025, they missed the postseason because the extremely frugal Cincinnati Reds beat them out. Spending money helps a lot, but it doesn't guarantee anything. LA was two outs away from losing the 2025 World Series to the Toronto Blue Jays before cheap utility man Miguel Rojas hit the game-tying homer. Think that wasn't luck? 

What fans are upset about with the Dodgers is that they're spending their money wisely. And they're using the advantages Shohei Ohtani gives them to build the best possible roster, instead of leaving well enough alone. Baseball fans hate when teams try to win, if that team isn't their own. 

Did LA Even Need Tucker?

Taking a closer look at the Dodgers' roster shows why they wanted Tucker, particularly on a short-term deal. LA's lineup is, to put it simply, old. And declining. Mookie Betts is 33 and coming off the worst offensive season of his career. Freddie Freeman is 36 and reaches free agency after the 2027 season. Will Smith turns 31 early in the season and the aging curve on catchers is rough, to say the least. Teoscar Hernandez is 33 as well, had an awful season in 2025, and is a free agent after 2027. Tommy Edman turns 31 early in the year and is a complimentary role player. Ohtani is 31. Max Muncy is 35, and turns 36 during the season. He's also a free agent after the 2026 season. 

Tyler Glasnow can become a free agent after 2027. Blake Treinen is a free agent after 2026, as is Miguel Rojas, Alex Vesia, and Brusdar Graterol. The point is, there's reason to expect the offense to take a step back in 2026, as time takes its toll on Freeman, Muncy, Hernandez, and Betts. Even Ohtani is on the downside of his peak, though with his talent level, that might not matter. That's where Tucker comes in. At nearly 29, he's still in his peak, and with a short-term deal, the downside is minimal. He doesn't need to be Aaron Judge or Juan Soto to carry the team, he just needs to add quality plate discipline and consistency to a lineup that can strikeout too much and has frequently been feast or famine. 

While he wasn't necessary for the Dodgers to win again, he makes the lineup that much deeper and provides protection for the decline phase of other players. As well as buying time for the team's top prospects, outfielders Josue De Paula, Zyhir Hope, and Eduardo Quintero, to develop. 

It's hard to believe, but even with Tucker, LA has just four players signed past 2029: Ohtani, Betts, Yoshinobu Yamamoto, who has an opt-out anyway, and Smith. For all the money they've spent, they find ways to give themselves an enormous amount of flexibility. While LA has financial advantages that only a few other teams can match, their creativity allows them to get the most out of it. They're not hamstrung by bad long-term contracts. They've maximized their window with Ohtani, Betts and Freeman in their peaks, or close to it. 

And comparing their roster construction to other teams shows how many organizations follow the same model. 

Here's how the Padres were built:

• Manny Machado - free agency
• Xander Bogaerts - free agency
• Michael King - trade, free agency
• Fernando Tatis Jr. - trade, extension
• Joe Musgrove - trade, extension
• Yu Darvish - trade, extension
• Nick Pivetta - free agency
• Jake Cronenworth - trade, extension
• Ramon Laureano - trade
• Yuki Matsui - free agency
• Wandy Peralta - free agency
• Sung Mun Song - free agency
• Jason Adam - trade
• Gavin Sheets - free agency
• JP Sears - trade
• Mason Miller - trade
• Freddy Fermin - trade
• Jeremiah Estrada - waiver claim
• David Morgan - undrafted free agent

The Padres have just one everyday player who they drafted or signed as an amateur. The Dodgers have two. Per Fangraphs Roster Resource, the Dodgers have 15 homegrown players on their 40-man roster. The Padres have nine. The Red Sox have 13. The Yankees have 11. The Orioles have 14. The Brewers have 13. Their roster construction isn't unusual, they're just better at it.

Oh, and by the way, the NFL? Whose commentary class was outraged about this signing? There have been just three AFC organizations to reach the Super Bowl since 2017. There's been just four NFC teams to get to the Super Bowl. Nobody cares, because most NFL fans don't care about outcomes other than how it impacts their gambling portfolio.