Could LSU Coach Brian Kelly Jump To Michigan To Replace Likely NFL-Bound Jim Harbaugh? Let's Take A Look | Glenn Guilbeau

BATON ROUGE, La. - A hot rumor of late has Michigan trying to hire LSU coach Brian Kelly, should coach Jim Harbaugh leave his scouting scandal-saddled Wolverines for the NFL ... one step ahead of the NCAA sheriffs.

A website called sportskeeda recently listed three reasons why Kelly to Michigan is a perfect fit for Michigan. Major colleges love to hire a coach from another major college. It makes them look and feel as if they are better than the school from which they just took a coach. And if Michigan could lasso Kelly from LSU just two years after he left Notre Dame for the bayou, that would be quite a feather in the Blue and Maize helmets.

The piece, though, did not delve into why Kelly would leave LSU. Possibly because it will never happen. It has about as much of a chance of happening as the story last month that Ohio State coach Ryan Day may become Texas A&M's coach, should he lose to Michigan. He lost to Michigan, and there was never anything remotely concrete about Day going to College Station.

This one is also about as likely to happen as Michigan State interviewing estranged former college and NFL coach Urban Meyer for its former opening. That was never going to happen either.

Why Would LSU's Brian Kelly Want To Go To Michigan?

Sure, Michigan would love to pull a blockbuster, if it loses Harbaugh to the Los Angeles Chargers, or another opening. But Kelly would surely not make such a lateral or near-lateral move so soon in his LSU tenure. Or would he?

First of all, it would not be a reach to consider that Michigan would be more interested in Kelly than Texas A&M was interested in Day (zero), or Michigan State was interested in Meyer (also zero).

Jim Harbaugh has his Michigan Wolverines in the College Football Playoff for the third straight season. (Photo by Michael Hickey/Getty Images)

Kelly has beaten Nick Saban - 32-31 in overtime over Alabama in the 2022 season to win the Southeastern Conference West. Harbaugh has not, losing 35-16 in the Citrus Bowl to Alabama in the 2019-20 season. And if he loses to Alabama again on Monday in the College Football Playoff national semifinal in the Rose Bowl (5 p.m., ESPN), he will be 0-2 vs. Saban. No. 1 Michigan is 13-0. No. 4 Alabama is 12-1 entering that game.

State Of Michigan Heavy In Brian Kelly's Background

Kelly has a Michigan background, albeit the state of Michigan, which still counts. Kelly' served as an assistant coach at Division II Grand Valley State in Allendale, Michigan, from 1987-90. He was head coach from 1991-2003. Kelly was head coach at Central Michigan in Mount Pleasant from 2004-06 before moving on to other Midwestern college head coach locales at Cincinnati from 2006-09 and Notre Dame from 2010-21.

So there are geographic connections.

But why would Kelly move? He is two years into a $10 million contract over 10 years as one of the highest paid coaches in all of college football. But let's say Michigan pays him more. It definitely can.

It is trying to keep Harbaugh with gobs of money despite his sinister NCAA violations record, including recruiting issues before the latest scandal.

And Michigan is obviously significantly better right now than LSU ... at least on the field. Harbaugh has the Wolverines in the CFP for the third straight season, though he is 0-2. LSU has not been close to reaching the CFP since winning it all in the 2019 season under coach Ed Orgeron.

LSU Has Not Been As Elite As Michigan In Recent Seasons

Since that championship season, LSU is an average 30-19 overall and 20-14 in the SEC with no overall league titles and some average bowls. Over that span from 2020-23, Michigan is 37-7 and 28-5 in the Big Ten with three straight conference crowns.

Michigan has not won a national championship since 1997. LSU has won three since then (2003, 2007, 2019) and played for a fourth (2011). But chances are both will have plenty of chances over the coming years with the playoff expanding to 12 teams in the 2024 season.

LSU also just won its second Heisman Trophy in four years with quarterback Jayden Daniels taking it this month after quarterback Joe Burrow in 2019. Defensive back/receiver/returner Charles Woodson won Michigan's last Heisman in 1997.

But let's get in the trenches. Michigan clearly has a much better defense than LSU right now and likely will next season as well. That may be the best selling point for Kelly there is.

A job switch to Ann Arbor for Kelly would mean an astronomical jump in the NCAA defensive standings. Michigan is currently No. 1 in scoring defense with 9.5 points allowed. LSU is No. 76 with 27.8 given up a game. Much uglier numbers appear for LSU are in total defense, where the Tigers are 101 nationally (409 yards a game) to No. 2 Michigan (240 a game). In pass defense, Michigan is No. 2 (152 yards a game) to LSU's 101 (245.4).

Kelly is yet to publicly fire troubled defensive coordinator Matt House, And he just lost one of his all-time favorite assistants in offensive coordinator Mike Denbrock to Notre Dame in a lateral or near-lateral move for the same job. Perhaps while interviewing candidates for those LSU posts, Kelly could be dually considering them for a possible move to Michigan?

Is It Easier To Recruit At LSU Than Michigan?

LSU likely has a better recruiting base than Michigan, and LSU is the only legitimate power in its state. LSU also does not have a true blood rival. Meanwhile, there is Michigan State to deal with for Michigan in addition to a true rival in border school Ohio State.

Former LSU coach Les Miles likely could have had the Michigan job after the 2010 season to replace Rich Rodriguez when significantly less qualified Brady Hoke got the job, had Miles shown more interest. A former Michigan player like Harbaugh who also was an assistant coach there twice, Miles won the 2007 national championship and finished 11-2 in 2010.

At the time, though, Miles chose to stay at LSU because he felt he had a better chance to win a national title with the Tigers because of the recruiting base. And he would not have been able to pay assistants at Michigan as much as he was at LSU. Miles went 13-0 and won the SEC West in 2011 with a win over Saban in a Game of the Century before losing the national championship game to Saban.

Kelly could pay his staff at Michigan now as much as he is at LSU. Recruiting is still probably better at LSU. But Kelly has not been tearing it up on the recruiting trail as Saban, Miles and Orgeron did at LSU. His current class is just No. 11 in the nation by 247 Sports after finishing sixth last year. Kelly has only been so-so in the NCAA Transfer Portal as well. But that is not all Kelly's fault. LSU's Name, Image & Likeness organizations need better planning and more funding. Michigan's is more organized. Ole Miss has a better NIL system than LSU, which is amazing considering the two programs' histories.

Could Brian Kelly Recruit Better At Michigan Than At LSU?

Would Kelly enjoy a better NIL mechanism at Michigan? Would he feel more at home recruiting in the state of Michigan and surrounding areas than at LSU? Maybe. But he has one of the best recruiters in the nation in assistant coach Frank Wilson. And Kelly's 2023 signing class was the first one he could work the entire year on. So, he's just getting started.

Recruiting in the SEC is getting more difficult though. Texas and Oklahoma join the league for the 2024 season. The Big Ten adds four more in Oregon, Washington, USC and UCLA. But none of those are close geographically to Michigan. Whereas Texas is a east-west border state to Louisiana, and Oklahoma has only Texas and Arkansas between it and Louisiana. That means more recruiting competition.

Brian Kelly, 62, has said LSU is his last coaching stop. (Photo by Joe Petro via Getty Images)

A move to Michigan would not be overly expensive for Kelly, even if he has to pay his contract buyout. Michigan would likely pick up the tab if it really wanted him. Should Kelly take a job before Dec. 31, he owes LSU $3 million, according to his contract. Should it happen after Dec. 31, that will only be $2 million.

Nickels and dimes in the college football world.

The numbers to really consider for a possible Kelly move are not dollar signs. Rather wins and losses.

In the short term, Kelly would likely win more at Michigan in 2024 than he will at LSU. The Tigers are losing Heisman quarterback Jayden Daniels. And the defense is not going to get better overnight whether House leaves or not. There are holes around the roster. Michigan loses a lot, too, but Michigan will likely still be better than LSU in 2024.

And so far at LSU, Kelly has been a bit of a disappointment, particularly for the money - $100 million over 10 years. Yes, he won the SEC West his first season with the monumental win over Alabama. But the Tigers finished 10-4. There is only one SEC West champion in the league's history of division play that began in 1992 with a worse overall record. Arkansas finished 9-5 in 2002.

Kelly has followed with a 9-3 season this year with the No. 13 Tigers playing Wisconsin (7-5) in the Reliaquest Bowl (yawn) in Tampa on Monday (Noon, ESPN2). Kelly remains pretty good again, but not great. And not commensurate to the salary or the expectations. LSU was viewed as a national championship contender entering this season at No. 5 in the preseason, Associated Press poll. He fielded the best offense in the nation. Just an average defense would have had him in the CFP, but the defense was horrible. That's partly on him. He's the head coach.

Tigers Have 5 Losses Under Brian Kelly By More Than 2 TDs

And when Kelly loses, he really loses. Of his seven losses at LSU, five have come by more than two touchdowns - 40-13 to Tennessee, 38-23 to a bad Texas A&M team and 50-30 to Georgia in the 2022 season and 45-24 and 42-28 to Florida State and Alabama this season.

Overall, Kelly is only a slightly above average 19-7 overall and 12-4 in the SEC through his first two seasons. Interestingly, LSU athletic director Scott Woodward's previous astronomically expensive hire produced similar numbers in his first two seasons. While Texas A&M's athletic director, Woodard hired Jimbo Fisher away from Florida State before the 2018 season at $75 million over 10 years. Fisher was 17-9 over his first two seasons before soon cratering in the 2022 season and getting fired this season.

Is Kelly finding the LSU job more difficult than he thought? Would he want to nip this in the bud and start fresh closer to his coaching roots. He is 62. He may want to redirect before it's too late. Kelly, though, has said multiple times LSU is his last coaching stop. Then again, they often say that.

In the end, it may not come down to Brian Kelly's choice. Should Michigan lose Harbaugh, it will likely go for a younger, more rising model at the moment.