Clay Travis's Starting 11: A Look At The Playoff Picture Edition

It's going to be a wild final week.

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The final week of the regular season is now here and there are, by my count, seven teams in the SEC, four teams in the Big Ten, four teams in the Big 12, six teams in the ACC, Notre Dame and at least four non-power conference teams still alive for the playoff.

That's 26 teams with playoff dreams entering the final week of the season.

Now some of them are faint playoff heartbeats, but there's a chance, even if it's a small one.

And even if your team is eliminated from playoff contention, you might well be playing a team in playoff contention in the final week of the season.

COLUMBUS, OHIO - NOVEMBER 22: Tight end Max Klare #86 of the Ohio State Buckeyes jumps over Defensive back Bo Mascoe #3, Defensive back Kaj Sanders #5 and Linebacker Dariel Djabome #8 of the Rutgers Scarlet Knights as he carries the ball during the third quarter at Ohio Stadium on November 22, 2025 in Columbus, Ohio. (Photo by Jason Mowry/Getty Images)

Plus, there was probably more Lane Kiffin talk during the Florida and LSU games tonight than there was analysis of the actual games.

We'll get to all that and more in this week's Starting 11.

1. There are five teams definitely in the playoff with one week of the regular season still to go

Let's call them the base five.

Nothing can happen to knock these teams out of the playoff.

They are Ohio State, Indiana, and Oregon from the Big Ten and Texas Ahttps://www.outkick.com/category/texas-am-aggies&M and Georgia from the SEC.

Even if all five of these teams lost their final game, I'm 100% confident they'd be in.

That means there are effectively seven spots still up for grabs in the playoff.

So let's start analyzing scenarios by breaking down all the conference situations.  

2. The SEC has six teams still alive for the playoff, seven if you want to count Texas

All year I've said no SEC team that gets to 10-2 or better is going to be left out of the playoff.

Well, I may be put that argument to the ultimate test because there are still six SEC teams that can get to 10-2.

Now, to be fair, the chances of 9-2 Oklahoma, 9-2 Alabama, and 9-2 Vanderbilt all winning their games are probably 30% or so. But Georgia and Texas A&M are in even if they lose. Some Ole Miss fans may think they're in no matter what, but I'm not sure that's the case if the Rebels were to drop the Egg Bowl and got tossed in the mix with several other 10-2 teams. And that's certainly not the case if the Rebels were to drop the Egg Bowl and then Lane Kiffin also decided to bail on Ole Miss for LSU or Florida, something we'll discuss a bit more below.

Kewan Lacy of the Mississippi Rebels runs the ball against the Florida Gators. (Photo by Randy J. Williams/Getty Images)

Not to be outdone, Texas is still alive for the playoff if the Longhorns could beat Texas A&M and then two out of three of Oklahoma, Vandy and Alabama lost their rivalry games to bring the 9-3 Longhorns back into the playoff mix too.

By the way, how good is the Friday tripleheader slate of games next week in the SEC? Ole Miss at Mississippi State at noon eastern, then Georgia at Georgia Tech and Texas at Texas A&M for the nightcap? Then on Saturday you get LSU at Oklahoma, Vandy at Tennessee, and Alabama at Auburn as the night game.

That's a phenomenal slate of games.

I'm barely going to leave my TV.

And that doesn't even count all the Thanksgiving NFL games.

I'm going to stick with my prediction of five SEC teams making the playoff, all of them 10-2 or better.

3. Ohio State, Indiana and Oregon are in the playoff from the Big Ten and Michigan is still alive for the playoff, barely  

There isn't much drama in the playoff race for the Big Ten — the top three teams are in and Michigan would have to pull off an upset to put themselves into contention too.

But, honestly, I'm not sure Michigan gets in even with an upset win over Ohio State.

It would just put them in the mix with other 10-2 teams.

Now if Oregon lost and Michigan ended up in the Big Ten title game after beating Ohio State, that could change the calculus quite a bit.

EUGENE, OREGON - NOVEMBER 22: The line of scrimmage between the Oregon Ducks and the Southern California Trojans during the second half at Autzen Stadium on November 22, 2025 in Eugene, Oregon. (Photo by Tom Hauck/Getty Images)

In fact, in that scenario, Oregon might get jumped by Michigan.

But the only way Michigan could 100% ensure they were in the playoff is by beating Ohio State and then winning the Big Ten title game.  

4. The ACC race is a mess

There are three teams with one loss each: Virginia, who plays Virginia Tech in the final week, Pittsburgh, who hosts Miami, and SMU who travels to California.

Based on my read on the tiebreaker situations, if Virginia and SMU both won, they would play for the ACC title.

If either team loses and Pittsburgh loses to Miami, then the two-loss tiebreak scenarios come into play.

Which could involve Georgia Tech, Miami or Duke as well as Virginia, SMU and Pittsburgh, since all of these teams could finish 6-2 as well.

In fact, in the most ACC scenario imaginable, we could even end up with a six-way tie at 6-2.

And since the ACC is such a big conference now, many of these teams didn't play each other, which would make the tiebreak scenarios a colossal mess.

Even crazier?

The ACC champ could get jumped by a non-power four conference team that finishes higher than them. That seems unlikely, but, heck, in a six-team tiebreak scenario anything could happen.

So buckle up here.  

5. The Big 12 title game is nearly set, but Texas Tech needs to beat West Virginia and BYU needs to handle Central Florida to make it official  

If both teams win, we'd have a rematch of an earlier game, which Texas Tech dominated en route to winning in Lubbock.

The Big 12 champ will be in with an automatic bid, which is easy if it's 12-1 Texas Tech, but what happens if BYU upsets Texas Tech and wins the conference?

Micah Hudson #14 of the Texas Tech Red Raiders. (Photo by John E. Moore III/Getty Images)

Then 11-2 Texas Tech would have a solid resume and be tossed into the mix with all the two loss teams, including Utah, which won a huge comeback victory over Kansas State, to put the Utes squarely in contention to join the two-loss team parade at 10-2 as well.

And Arizona State, which has a tiebreak over Texas Tech, is still alive in the Big 12 race too.

Maybe it's just me, but I don't remember so many tiebreaker scenarios at play for a final week in so many conferences before, but it's honestly bonkers.

6. Notre Dame crushed Syracuse 70-7 to move to 9-2

Everyone wants to put the Fighting Irish in the playoff as a lock at 10-2, but when you stack up Notre Dame's resume the Irish are probably going to have two top 25 wins, Pitt and USC at the end of the year.

Is that orders of magnitude better than 10-2 Miami, 10-2 Vanderbilt, 11-2 BYU, 10-2 Michigan, or 11-2 Texas Tech, all of whom could be in the mix with them?

I just don't see it.

Could Notre Dame get in the playoff?

Sure.

But all of those teams I just listed above have every bit as good of resumes as the Fighting Irish.

So why aren't we having a more fulsome debate here? It feels as if everyone just decided early in the year that 10-2 Notre Dame would be in the playoff and one is stopping to actually analyze competing resumes.

7. No one else may care about this, but Tennessee won at Florida for the first time since 2003

The Vols didn't just win, they dominated Florida more than in any game since 1992.

It was 31-0 at the half and both coaches effectively agreed to a running clock in the second half, with both teams content to run the football and just end the game as quickly as possible.

GAINESVILLE, FLORIDA - NOVEMBER 22: Joey Aguilar #6 of the Tennessee Volunteers celebrates with teammates after defeating the Florida Gators 31-11 at Ben Hill Griffin Stadium on November 22, 2025 in Gainesville, Florida. (Photo by James Gilbert/Getty Images)

How long ago was 2003?

The last time Tennessee won at Florida I hadn't ever written a word online.

I started writing online in the fall of 2004. (Thanks to all of you reading this right now who found me way back then.)

In my entire career writing and talking about college football, Tennessee has never beaten Florida in Gainesville.

The last time Tennessee won in Gainesville, I was unmarried, in law school, had no kids, had no job, and had no clue I'd end up doing any of the things for a living that I've ended up doing for a living.

That's a long time ago.

This was a big win for Josh Heupel.

The game against Vanderbilt to end the season should be a fun one. If not for disappointing home losses to Georgia and Oklahoma the Vandy game would be for a playoff spot. Still, for Tennessee fans of around my age, Florida may be the most hated rival in the SEC.

Yes, even more than Alabama.

Because Tennessee has beaten Alabama way more times in my life as a fan than they have Florida.

And most of the losses to Alabama were losses to much better teams.

But, man, Tennessee has lost a ton of close games to Florida teams that weren't that good. Just brutal heartrending defeats that kept me up late into the night.

So I enjoyed the Vol beat down of the Gators in Gainesville even if Florida is a shell of the program they've been for most of my life.

The Gators have ruined way too many of my fall Saturdays for me to not enjoy this one immensely.

8. Okay, let's talk Lane Kiffin

I started off my Saturday morning on Fox and Friends talking Kiffin.

As I said, I believe Kiffin's going to leave Ole Miss for either LSU or Florida. In fact, if I had to pick right now, I'd take LSU as the most likely destination, but the longer this drags out, the more dramatic things get.

Right now, Ole Miss is saying Kiffin will announce his decision on the Saturday after the Egg Bowl.

We definitely need a coaching hat ceremony for this decision.

But if Ole Miss wins the Egg Bowl, I don't see how Kiffin can coach Ole Miss in the playoff and leave for another team.

Why?

Because the timing doesn't work out. The playoff runs into the transfer portal and mid-term enrollment.

It's just not feasible for Lane to coach Ole Miss in the playoff and leave after that.

We could be looking at a Steve Fisher and Michigan basketball scenario in play, where an assistant coach could be elevated to coach in Kiffin's place.

That sounds crazy, but remember that Kiffin was fired by Nick Saban in the middle of an Alabama playoff run before.

Right now, Kiffin could go from the most beloved coach in Mississippi to the most hated in an instant.  

Which happened at Tennessee, as you'll remember, back in 2009 when Kiffin bolted for USC after just one year in Knoxville.

9. If I had a Heisman vote, Diego Pavia would get it with one week to play in the season

Here's what Pavia has done the past three games against SEC competition: 27-for-38 for 365 at Texas with three passing touchdowns, 25-of-33 for 377 with three passing touchdowns, and 33-of-39 for 484 yards with five passing touchdowns. Toss in three more rushing touchdowns against those same three teams with 203 yards rushing total.

Diego Pavia Deserves Heisman Invite After Record Breaking Day, As Vanderbilt Fights For CFP Spot

NASHVILLE, TENNESSEE - NOVEMBER 08: Diego Pavia #2 of the Vanderbilt Commodores drops back to pass during the first half of the game against the Auburn Tigers at FirstBank Stadium on November 08, 2025 in Nashville, Tennessee.  (Photo by Johnnie Izquierdo/Getty Images)

He's been absolutely phenomenal.

My top three Heisman ballot would look like this:

1. Diego Pavia
2. Fernando Mendoza
3. Marcel Reed

Now the final week of the regular season could certainly alter my rankings, but these are the three best quarterbacks I've seen this year.

10. My Outkick top ten

I've expanded my top ten this week to a top 14 because I think there are 14 teams deserving of being ranked at this point.

I still have Notre Dame behind Miami.

I get that I may be the only person in the country doing this, but what's the point of playing regular season games if you don't count the result for anything?

Miami beat Notre Dame in week one.

What's the number one tiebreaker when two teams finish with the same record? It's head-to-head!  

I've also bumped up BYU as the Cougar road win at Cincinnati was a solid one, and I think they are solidly in the top ten at this point.

  1. Ohio State
  2. Georgia
  3. Indiana
  4. Texas A&M
  5. Oregon
  6. Ole Miss
  7. Oklahoma
  8. Texas Tech
  9. Alabama
  10. BYU
  11. Miami
  12. Notre Dame
  13. Vanderbilt
  14. Utah

11. SEC power rankings 1-16

With the SEC season nearly complete, we have seen only one true upset in conference play all season — Florida beating Texas. Otherwise, the better team has almost always won.

  1. Georgia
  2. Texas A&M
  3. Ole Miss
  4. Oklahoma
  5. Alabama
  6. Vanderbilt
  7. Tennessee
  8. Texas
  9. Missouri
  10. LSU
  11. Kentucky
  12. Florida
  13. Auburn
  14. Mississippi State
  15. South Carolina
  16. Arkansas
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Clay Travis is the founder of the fastest growing national multimedia platform, OutKick, that produces and distributes engaging content across sports and pop culture to millions of fans across the country. OutKick was created by Travis in 2011 and sold to the Fox Corporation in 2021. One of the most electrifying and outspoken personalities in the industry, Travis hosts OutKick The Show where he provides his unfiltered opinion on the most compelling headlines throughout sports, culture, and politics. He also makes regular appearances on FOX News Media as a contributor providing analysis on a variety of subjects ranging from sports news to the cultural landscape. Throughout the college football season, Travis is on Big Noon Kickoff for Fox Sports breaking down the game and the latest storylines. Additionally, Travis serves as a co-host of The Clay Travis and Buck Sexton Show, a three-hour conservative radio talk program syndicated across Premiere Networks radio stations nationwide. Previously, he launched OutKick The Coverage on Fox Sports Radio that included interviews and listener interactions and was on Fox Sports Bet for four years. Additionally, Travis started an iHeartRadio Original Podcast called Wins & Losses that featured in-depth conversations with the biggest names in sports. Travis is a graduate of George Washington University as well as Vanderbilt Law School. Based in Nashville, he is the author of Dixieland Delight, On Rocky Top, and Republicans Buy Sneakers Too.