Clay Travis's Starting 11: Down Go Penn State And Texas Edition

I spent yesterday at my second Florida State game of the year watching the rivalry meeting against Miami in person.

Just as with the Alabama game I watched there in week one, the atmosphere was electric at kickoff and Florida State took an early first half lead. But all the similarities vanished at that point in time as Miami took a 28-3 lead into the fourth quarter and then survived a late 19-0 run from FSU which led to one of the most improbable covers of the year if you took FSU +6.5 when the game line came out earlier in the week.

Florida State fans have been great to my family. I'd never been to Doak Campbell Stadium before this year, and I'm sure I'll go back a decent amount of the time in the future.

They had an awesome tribute to Lee Corso at the game — the band spelled out his name and he was recognized on the field and on the jumbrotrons.

(By the way, sidenote, this is the second time I've driven over from Florida's 30A community to an FSU game. It's a super easy drive in and out although, be careful, I got a speeding ticket in one of the small gulf coast towns near midnight on our drive home. These town speed traps are crazy. In a few hundred yards the speed limit went from 60 to 35 and the cops were sitting right where the speed limit dropped to 35. Having funded much of the education of the kids in south Alabama with speeding tickets driving down to 30A over the past 15 years, I hadn't gotten a ticket in roughly five years and this is the first one I've gotten in Florida in a long time. It's truly uncanny how many of the towns in this area fund much of government via speed traps.)

But Miami's dominance of Florida State wasn't the biggest story of the weekend.

TALLAHASSEE, FLORIDA - OCTOBER 4: CharMar Brown #6 of the Miami Hurricanes rushes the ball in the fourth quarter of the game against the Florida State Seminoles at Doak S. Campbell Stadium on October 4, 2025 in Tallahassee, Florida.  (Photo by Jason Clark/Getty Images)

Not close to it.

The craziest thing about college football is that a couple of times a year a game no one sees as a significant one on the schedule at all ends up changing the entire trajectory of the season.

That happened in the Rose Bowl on Saturday afternoon as an 0-4 UCLA team that HADN'T HAD A LEAD IN A GAME ALL SEASON surged to a 27-7 lead against Penn State headed into halftime.

The Nittany Lions stormed back, cutting it to a touchdown or less several times, but they were never able to reclaim the lead and the result, as we will discuss below, is there's a huge uncertainty at the top of the Big Ten after Oregon and Ohio State.

Plus, Alabama got revenge on Vandy and the Florida Gators looked at least a little bit like the team we expected to see all season long as they took down Texas.  

Let's dive into the Starting 11.

1. UCLA beat Penn State out of nowhere

With the head coach fired, and both coordinators fired too, I expected Penn State to travel to the West Coast and deliver a solid beating on the Bruins.

So did all of you.

In fact, I even called for a blowout and Penn State to cover the 25-point line.

Boy was I ever wrong.

UCLA, behind Nico, who passed for 166 yards and rushed for 128 yards, led from the opening minutes until the end of the game when several of the tiny number of UCLA fans "stormed" the field. The result left the college football world in shock.

PASADENA, CA - OCTOBER 04:  UCLA Bruins quarterback Nico Iamaleava (9) runs for a touchdown during the college football game between the Penn State Nittany Lions and the UCLA Bruins on October 04, 2025, at the Rose Bowl in Pasadena, CA. (Photo by Jevone Moore/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)

Sure, Penn State had struggled to win the "big game," but the Nittany Lions had almost never stumbled against big underdogs. They pretty much always won these games under James Franklin. Now, with the hangover of the Oregon double overtime loss leaving them flat at the open of the game, the Nittany Lions, big favorites to make the playoff before the season started, have to win out to make the playoff.

That means, yes, the game at Ohio State on November 1st is now a must-win for the playoff.

Not to mention Indiana in Happy Valley too.

Based on what happened at UCLA, Penn State running the table feels highly unlikely. (Although let's be honest, it feels like there is no truly dominant team or teams in college football this year, and we should buckle up for a great deal of chaos from this point forward.)

But with the Nittany Lion loss, the playoff door has swung open for many other Big Ten teams as we will discuss below.

2. Florida dominated Texas and looked like the team we expected to see all season long

There was nothing flashy or fishy about this outcome, the Gators were simply the better team in all facets of the game.

In particular, Texas couldn't run the ball at all, notching just 52 yards on 26 rushing attempts. And Arch was enigmatic, showing flashes of talent, but mostly playing average football as he has all season. The result? Much like their fellow preseason playoff favorite, Penn State, the Longhorns have virtually no margin for error if they hope to make the playoff. They pretty much have to win out now.

But unlike the UCLA game, this result didn't shock me.

Why?

Florida's struggles have been well covered, but Texas hasn't looked like a top 25 team this year, not close to it. Coming into this week, I had the Longhorns ranked as my 11th best SEC team. If you'd taken their name off the jersey and replaced them with a less famous team's brand, Texas wouldn't be anywhere near the top 25.

GAINESVILLE, FL - OCTOBER 04: Florida Gators running back Jadan Baugh (13) hurdles Texas Longhorns defensive back Graceson Littleton (29) during the game between the Texas Longhorns and the Florida Gators on October 4, 2025 at Ben Hill Griffin Stadium at Florida Field in Gainesville, Fl. (Photo by David Rosenblum/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)

Now the Longhorns, who have lost both power conference games they've played so far this season, face Oklahoma, Kentucky, Mississippi State, Vanderbilt, at Georgia, Arkansas and Texas A&M. That's seven straight weeks of SEC games. Do you like their odds of winning out? I don't. And I'm betting almost no one else reading this right now does either.

I don't think the Longhorns will be a playoff team this year.  

As for Florida, Billy Napier's Gator coaching career is back from the dead just in time for the Halloween season.

This is basically the trend of his career in Gainesville so far. Everyone decides to fire him because he starts seasons awfully and then the team starts to play better, and we all convince ourselves that Florida has turned the corner and is back to being a solid program. Only to have the cycle repeat itself again.  

This was a very good win for Napier, but the Gators still have at Texas A&M next week, Mississippi State, then Georgia on November 1st. Then comes a close of at Kentucky, at Ole Miss, Tennessee, and Florida State.

A losing record still feels likely.

In order to keep his job, Napier probably needs to beat at least two of Texas A&M, Georgia, Ole Miss, Tennessee and Florida State.    

And not choke against Mississippi State or Kentucky.

That would get him to 6-6, which still probably isn't good enough, but would at least get him through most of the season.

But for one week at least, the Gators showed bite.

3. Miami has to be ranked as the best team in the country.

With wins over Notre Dame, Florida State, South Florida, and Florida no one has four better wins on the season so far. They have to be number one if on-field results matter.

This was the first time I've seen the Hurricanes in person and what stood out to me was how in command of the offense Carson Beck was.

It's easy to forget that, two years ago, Beck looked like a sure-fire first round draft pick. Then, last season, he threw a bevy of interceptions and regressed as Georgia's starter. Now he's back to good Beck status.

If he keeps playing like he did last night, Miami isn't going to lose a regular-season game.

TALLAHASSEE, FLORIDA - OCTOBER 4: Carson Beck #11 of the Miami Hurricanes reads the defense as he hands the ball off to Mark Fletcher Jr. #4 of the Miami Hurricanes the game against the Florida State Seminoles at Doak S. Campbell Stadium on October 4, 2025 in Tallahassee, Florida.  (Photo by Jason Clark/Getty Images)

That's especially true since Miami doesn't play another ranked team for the rest of the season, and they may not even play that many teams with winning records.

Sure, the Hurricanes may drop a game — even though it appears unlikely right now — but it would be shocking if Miami wasn't in the ACC title game.

As for FSU, the momentum from the thrilling beatdown against Alabama to begin the season has now vanished and the Seminoles are 0-2 to begin ACC play, meaning they have to win out to have a chance at Atlanta.

The ACC is wide open, but FSU doesn't look like a team that will be headed to Charlotte.

The Seminoles do, however, look like a team that will rebound from 2-10 to finish the season 8-4 or 9-3, which I think most Florida State fans would have taken before the season started.

4. Alabama got revenge on Vanderbilt, but it wasn't the kind of win that made last year's win look like a fluke

In fact, if Diego Pavia doesn't turn the ball over twice in the red zone, Vanderbilt would have had a real chance to win this game. The final score — with a brutal fourth-down touchdown run for the cover with under a half minute to play — didn't reflect how close this game actually was.  

So I came away from this one convinced of something that wins at Virginia Tech and South Carolina had already shown me — Vandy's a pretty good football team, they are good enough to beat anyone in the SEC.

Clarke Lea has built a really good football team in Nashville, maybe the best Vandy has had in my lifetime.

But what about the Tide?

TUSCALOOSA, ALABAMA - OCTOBER 04:  Isaiah Horton #1 of the Alabama Crimson Tide tries to get around Martel Hight #4 of the Vanderbilt Commodores as he carries the ball during the first quarter of a football game at Bryant-Denny Stadium on October 4, 2025 in Tuscaloosa, Alabama. (Photo by Butch Dill/Getty Images)

Well, the loss to FSU looks even worse after the past two weeks — as I wrote above, the Seminoles are likely to finish as a decent ACC team, not a playoff contender — but Bama has reached the midway point of the season stabilized. Which means Alabama, in my opinion, is what they have basically looked like so far this year, one of about eight SEC teams that is capable of playing really well or leaving you supremely frustrated.

It wouldn't shock me if Alabama played their best game of the season next week at Mizzou and won by a couple of touchdowns or lost by ten.

Either feels just as likely.

Which is why I want to see what happens at Mizzou and at South Carolina in the next three weeks.

Alabama is going to be Mizzou and South Carolina's Super Bowls.

Kalen DeBoer, so far, has been good at home and in top ten games.

But he's been awful in run-of-the-mill road games against decent opponents — losses last year at Vanderbilt and Oklahoma, a loss this year at Florida State — so can he fix that? I think we'll have a good idea by the end of the month what this Tide team truly is.

Remember, and this may loom large too, that FSU loss was out of conference.

Which means Alabama may well lose at least one game in conference, as I suspect they will, and still be able to punch a ticket to Atlanta at 10-2 overall.  

5. The race for the Big Ten's third-best team, and presumed playoff spot as a result, is wide open

Coming into this week, I would have told you I still liked Oregon, Ohio State and Penn State all to make the playoff.

And that Indiana was in solid shape as well.

Now I think Penn State, as I discussed above, is highly unlikely to run the table. And a 9-3 Nittany Lions squad, even with a win over Indiana or Ohio State, is going to be a very tough sell for the playoff committee.

So, if we still feel good about Ohio State and Oregon in the playoff, which I think we all should, Indiana is clearly the biggest winner with Penn State's loss, because the Hoosiers, even with losses at Oregon and Penn State, would be in decent shape for the playoff. But a bevy of one or two loss Big Ten teams are alive for the playoff team. A ton of Big Ten fan bases can feel like 10-2 is doable. That's teams like Illinois, Michigan, USC, Nebraska and Washington. Do any of these teams have the second gear to make a run like that? I have no idea, but Penn State's loss has opened the door in a big way for several teams to angle their way to third best in the conference.  

6. Who will play Miami for the ACC title?

Good luck trying to handicap all of this.

Virginia followed up a huge win over FSU with a monster overtime road win over Louisville to get Tony Elliott's Cavaliers to 5-1 and 3-0 in the ACC. Games at North Carolina, at California and at Duke are on the road and then Wake Forest and Virginia Tech come to Charlottesville.

So Virginia has the inside track here to make the title game, but Duke, Georgia Tech, and SMU are all still undefeated in conference too.  

One early read here, the ACC may well be a one-bid conference barring an ACC title game upset of the Hurricanes.

I'm not sure anyone else will have the resume to get into the playoff mix.

7. Texas Tech is the unquestioned best team in the Big 12 after six weeks of play

The Red Raiders went on the road and smacked around undefeated Houston a couple of weeks after going on the road and smacking around undefeated Utah.  

HOUSTON, TEXAS - OCTOBER 04: Behren Morton #2 of the Texas Tech Red Raiders makes a pass during the game against the Houston Cougars at TDECU Stadium on October 04, 2025 in Houston, Texas. (Photo by Kenneth Richmond/Getty Images)

BYU, Arizona State and Cincinnati — with a nice win over Iowa State — are all still undefeated too, and there are SEVEN teams with one loss or less in conference play, so this is likely to be a crazy donnybrook before all is complete.

But with the Red Raiders having already won two of their three toughest road games, they are sitting pretty for a conference title game bid.

8. The top of the SEC is wide open

I wrote above about the Alabama and Florida wins, but if Texas bounces back to beat Oklahoma next weekend — which wouldn't be crazy given the health issues of John Mateer — and let's say Mizzou beat Alabama, then we would have pretty much utter chaos atop the SEC.

And I think this is likely to continue all year, because I just don't see a dominant team in the SEC.

Now there are a ton of really good teams, as I've said before, I think the SEC is deeper 1-16 than it has ever been before, but that means every week is a crapshoot.

But I do think there are potentially five playoff bids available for SEC teams.

Heck, there's even a world where the ACC and Big 12 are both one-bid leagues, where Notre Dame loses again to drop out of playoff contention, and where the Big Ten only gets three playoff teams.

That could leave as many as six bids for SEC teams if the schedules broke in a way that left a ton of 10-2 or 11-1 teams.

9. So what does Vegas think about the college football title chances?

Their title odds are a complete mess.

• Ohio State 4.5 to 1
• Oregon 5 to 1
• Alabama 6.5 to 1
• Miami 9 to 1
• Georgia 10 to 1
• Oklahoma 15-1
• Texas A&M 16-1
• Ole Miss 19-1
• Texas 19-1
• Notre Dame 20-1
• Indiana 27-1
• LSU 30-1
• Texas Tech 33-1
• Tennessee 40-1
• Michigan 40-1
• Penn State 40-1
• Missouri 45-1
• Vandy 80-1
• USC 80-1
• Auburn 80-1

How in the world is Texas still 19-1 to win the national title?! And Auburn is tied for the 17th most likely team to win the national title? Auburn?!

Okay, this sounds crazy.

You want to know what's even crazier?

Florida is the 21st most likely team to win the title at 125-1.

Florida!

Believe it or not, if Billy Napier's team won the final seven games of the season, they'd be in Atlanta at 9-3, 7-1 in the SEC.

I'm writing all of this, by the way, from my new beach house down in Florida. We moved in Saturday morning.

This is the view from the roof.

When I started Outkick back in 2011, I had a negative net worth and was hoping to make $100k a year writing for a site I owned.

I'd gotten laid off by FanHouse in January of 2011 and the only job I had was in local sports talk radio in Nashville.

Some of you guys have been reading this Starting 11 column for 14 years.

Heck, some of you have been reading what I've written online for over twenty years now.

Thank you, seriously, thank you.

The first time we drove down 30A when I was down here covering the SEC spring meetings in Sandestin, I would never have believed we'd ever have a place we owned here. Heck, I was happy just to be able to afford to rent a place for a week for a long time.

I'm not done yet, I still think I've got some fun things to come, but it's hard not to be incredibly thankful as I'm writing this morning looking out over the beach.

And for those of you who have hated on me for twenty years, thank you too. You helped build this house too. I couldn't have done it without you either.  

10. My Outkick National Top Ten

Remember, I rank teams entirely based on what we've actually seen on the field, not what I expected to see.

With that in mind, these teams are the best after six weeks of play.

1. Miami
2. Oregon
3. Ole Miss
4. Texas A&M
5. Ohio State
6. Oklahoma
7. Alabama
8. Texas Tech
9. Indiana
10. Georgia

11. My SEC power rankings 1-16

Much like with the Outkick top ten, these rankings are based entirely on what we've seen on the field so far.

With six weeks of games now in the mix, the rankings are firming up quite a bit.

1. Ole Miss
2. Texas A&M
3. Oklahoma
4. Alabama
5. Georgia
6. Vanderbilt
7. Tennessee
8. LSU
9. Missouri
10. Mississippi State
11. Florida
12. Texas
13. South Carolina
14. Auburn
15. Kentucky
16. Arkansas