Clay Travis Starting 11: The Status Quo Survives Another Saturday In College Football
I don't remember a college football season with this few upsets, particularly at the top. The best teams just keep winning and the chaotic upset week just has never arrived. We entered the week with eight teams having a chance to win the national title and we finished this week with eight teams still having a chance to win a national title.
Georgia, Alabama, Texas, Florida State, Washington, Oregon, Michigan and Ohio State are all still alive. Four of these teams will make the playoff and one of them will win the national title.
Although Florida State with the loss of Jordan Travis feels particularly threatened now.
Jordan Travis leg is in an air cast as he is carted off the field in Tallahassee. (Photo by Don Juan Moore/Getty Images)
And we could still end up with a complete mess on our hands or we could have a really simple playoff selection scenario.
But it feels like we are headed towards a four team playoff with all five conference champs having strong resumes deserving of a playoff shot.
Let's dive into the Starting 11.
1. Georgia has won 28 games in a row, 38 games in a row in the regular season.
Those are simply absurd numbers.
Kirby Smart has established himself as the best coach in college football and Nick Saban is the only coach within hailing distance of him right now.
Kirby Smart has Georgia firing on all pistons at the right time of year. (Photo by Bryan Lynn/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)
And the two time defending national champion Bulldogs have just played their best two games of the year back-to-back against Ole Miss and Tennessee.
I was in Neyland Stadium for this game and, as a Tennessee fan, the first quarter or so was fun. The game peaked for Vol fans on the first play of the game when Tennessee went 75 yards for an opening play touchdown. Then at least they brought out Peyton Manning and Dolly Parton at the end of the first quarter. (Although the audio on Dolly was horrible. Come on, you've got a legend on the field, you couldn't get the audio flawless?)
From there Georgia dominated. I mean just totally obliterated Tennessee. I was there with my 13 year old and when Georgia scored to go up 31-10, we, along with a ton of other Tennessee fans, left the stadium. There was just no suspense remaining, I'm not sure how many possessions Tennessee would have needed to score 31 on Georgia, but I think it would have taken two more full games.
And I'm still not sure it would have happened.
Carson Beck has really progressed a great deal and it feels like Brock Bowers is open any time Georgia needs to go to him for a first down. Tennessee couldn't convert third downs or stop Georgia on third down and that was the ball game.
Georgia might lose to Alabama in the SEC title game -- I don't think they will, but they could -- but watching them play on Saturday in person I don't see how anyone couldn't say they were one of the four best teams in the country.
And if 12-1 two time defending national champion Georgia isn't in the playoff, I think the college football playoff is cheapened.
I get why they probably wouldn't be included, but if the goal of the playoff is to get the four best teams, I don't see how anyone can say they aren't one of the four best teams in college football.
And assuming Georgia beats Georgia Tech next Saturday the Bulldogs would be the consensus number one team entering title game weekend.
And then, what, they lose a close game to Alabama and they suddenly drop to five in the playoff rankings? What sense does that actually make?
I can see an argument for dropping them below 13-0 Michigan or 13-0 Ohio State, but Georgia would be favored on a neutral site over every team in the country.
Anyway, this argument probably won't arise, but I'm just saying, I've seen enough to know Georgia is one of the four best teams in the country.
2. 11-0 Florida State is in a tough spot with the Jordan Travis injury.
The Seminoles have to demonstrate that they are still worthy of playoff consideration by beating Florida and Louisville. And not just winning, playing at a level befitting of one of the top four teams in the country. They probably don't just need to win these games, they need to win them comfortably.
Ohio State in 2014 -- the year Cardale Jones won the Buckeyes the title as a third string quarterback -- is the best model for Florida State, but that Buckeye team had Zeke Elliott as its engine. And they also won the Big Ten title game 59-0. Without trouncing Wisconsin like this, the Buckeyes probably don't snag the fourth playoff spot over Baylor and TCU, who managed to split the Big 12 title that year and didn't have a Big 12 title game to help them pick a champ.
Anyway, my point is that Ohio State needed an insanely lopsided win to get in the playoff.
The same may be true for FSU.
But the wild card here is Ohio State was 12-1 and had a back up quarterback. FSU would be 13-0 with a back up quarterback. So the analogy here isn't perfect.
Given the Graham Mertz injury for the Gators, both FSU and Florida may be without their starters in the final game of the year. (If Mertz was healthy, I actually think the Gators, who were a 4th and 17 defensive stop away from beating top ten Missouri on the road, would have a decent chance of winning this game. But without Mertz I have no idea what to expect.)
As I write this on Saturday night, Vegas doesn't think FSU has the horses to make a playoff run, the Seminoles are all the way down to 35-1 to win the title.
It stinks to see anyone's season come down to analyzing the impact of a quarterback injury, but the injury definitely gives the committee license to downgrade the Seminoles in the event there are four other supremely deserving playoff teams.
What might that look like?
I'll discuss this in greater detail below, but what if you have the SEC champ, the Big Ten champ, the Pac 12 champ, and 12-1 Texas wins the Big 12 championship, but FSU is 13-0 without Jordan Travis? I think 12-1 Texas might well get in over the 13-0 Seminoles.
This is setting up to be a huge mess for the committee because an undefeated power five team has never been left out of a four team playoff.
So buckle up for this battle.
3. Maryland played Michigan pretty even on Saturday.
Let's just go to the stats, 291 total yards for the Wolverines to 262 total yards for the Terps, 20 first downs for Michigan to 17 for Maryland. Indeed if Maryland doesn't turn the ball over three times, including Michigan scoring nine on defense, the Terps might well have won this game.
Okay, so here's the question -- can Michigan find a way to beat Ohio State and prolong the wild ride in Ann Arbor by bringing back Jim Harbaugh for the Big Ten title game? Or will the Big Ten and the NCAA get their wish and see the Buckeyes roll into the big house and take the Michigan mess off their hands?
The Michigan Wolverines won their 1000th game of all time beating Maryland. (Photo by Greg Fiume/Getty Images)
As I write this on Saturday night Michigan is down to -3.5 vs. Ohio State, earlier this year the lookahead line on this game was over a touchdown.
And whatever you think of Michigan, since the sign stealing story exploded in earnest Michigan hasn't looked as dominant against Purdue, Penn State and Maryland as they did earlier in the season.
Now maybe this was just the quintessential trap game for the Wolverines, coming as it did between Penn State and Ohio State, but big blue doesn't look as dominant right now as they did earlier in the year. And in the back of their minds even Michigan fans have to be wondering whether Michigan's dominance over the past two years is connected to the sign stealing in some way.
4. Washington and Oregon keep winning.
Barring an Oregon State upset of Oregon, the Pac 12 champ will have one loss or less.
13-0 Washington would be in the playoff no matter what and it's hard for me to believe 12-1 Oregon could be left out if the Ducks won the Pac 12 title by avenging their only loss of the season by beating Washington.
In fact, if Oregon beats Oregon State, I'm close to guaranteeing the Pac 12 champ a spot in the playoff. (Even if Washington lost to Washington State next week a bounce back win against Oregon would get the 12-1 Huskies in the playoff.)
5. Is Alabama now 100% in if the Tide go 12-1 and win the SEC title?
The FSU situation throws things for a loop.
Because I'd argued the only way 12-1 Alabama wasn't in the playoff was with Michigan or Ohio State 13-0, 13-0 Washington, 13-0 Florida State and 12-1 Texas all as conference champs. Prior to the Jordan Travis injury, I think 12-1 Alabama would have been left out of the playoff.
Nick Saban and Alabama find themselves controlling their own destiny. (Photo by Cliff Welch/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)
But would 13-0 Florida State without Jordan Travis get in over 12-1 Alabama?
They might have to shut down the Florabama bar over this civil war.
This debate would be WILD.
Hide your trees. (Speaking of trees, Auburn lost at home by 21 points -- as a 25.5 point favorite -- to New Mexico State. This 46.5 point swing has to be the biggest difference between expected outcome and actual outcome all year. And based on the way my gambling picks went, I"m stunned I didn't tell y'all to take Auburn on the money line.)
Also, by the way, if Alabama buys an opponent instead of Texas, the Tide is 11-0 and we're talking about Georgia and Alabama as both being deserving of playoff spots. My point? Major out of conference games still have a decent amount of risk and don't necessarily have much reward.
6. So let's talk some playoff scenarios.
While college football fans love to talk chaos scenarios, there are still some really easy playoff scenarios. For instance, what if Georgia, Michigan/Ohio State, Washington and Florida State all win out and Texas loses to either Texas Tech or in the Big 12 championship?
Then you have four undefeated conference champions and no one even bothers to watch the selection special. (11-1 Ohio State would argue they should be in over 13-0 FSU, but this argument wouldn't work.)
But the toughest scenario would be if you have Michigan win the Big Ten at 13-0, but more revelations on the sign stealing come out, Alabama wins the SEC title at 12-1, Oregon wins the Pac 12 at 12-1, Texas wins the Big 12 at 12-1, and FSU win the ACC at 13-0, but doesn't look impressive without Jordan Travis.
Then you also have 12-1 Georgia, 12-1 Washington, and 11-1 Ohio State.
I suspect in this scenario you'd end up with Michigan, Oregon, Texas and Alabama.
But how do you leave a 13-0 Florida State out of the playoff and take three one loss teams over them? And how do you take three one loss teams and none of them is Georgia, who would be favored over every team in the playoff on a neutral site?
Again, this could get nasty.
7. Louisville is 10-1 and will play in the ACC title game.
I just thought I should mention them since it's pretty incredible for Jeff Brohm to manage this in his first year. 6-5 Kentucky travels to Louisville this coming Saturday with the Cardinals having a shot at an 11-1 regular season before the ACC title game against Florida State.
No, I don't really think there's any path for Louisville to the playoff, but 12-1 is very doable, which is pretty incredible.
A couple of other phenomenal coaching jobs that aren't getting much attention, Jamey Chadwell is 11-0 at Liberty and Barry Odom is 9-2 at UNLV.
On the flip side, Deion Sanders, who has gotten more attention than all three of these guys combined this year, lost 56-14 to Washington State on Friday night and is now 4-7 on the year, 1-7 in the Pac 12.
Given that Utah is left on the schedule, Colorado is likely to finish 4-8, 1-8 in the Pac 12, good for last place in the final year of the Pac 12 conference's existence.
I think Deion's great for college football and he may win big in the years ahead, but I'm not sure we've ever had a more overhyped team than Colorado.
8. I still think the Heisman Trophy will come down to the Pac 12 title game.
But the odds markets disagree with me.
Bo Nix is +110 and Michael Penix, Jr. is 5-1.
But between the two of them is Jayden Daniels at +140.
Look, I love Jayden Daniels's game. And I get he had six touchdowns passing and two rushing against Georgia State tonight. But he only has one game remaining, at home against Texas A&M and it's a noon eastern kickoff time.
Whatever he does is getting lost in the Ohio State-Michigan reaction and then his career is over.
Meanwhile you'll have Oregon and Washington playing another shootout the next week with the entire nation watching.
I just think whichever Pac 12 quarterback wins the title will win the Heisman because these guys have another opportunity to play on the big stage. (Carson Beck and Jalen Milroe are also dark horses in the event one of these guys posted an incredible SEC title game.)
But I'd be very surprised if it isn't Nix or Penix.
9. Let's look at the national title odds.
How is Vegas assessing things on Saturday night as I'm writing the Starting 11?
Georgia +230
Michigan +280
Ohio State +500
Oregon +650
Alabama +750
Washington 12-1
Texas 14-1
Florida State 35-1
That's a monster number for Florida State, especially since FSU is probably going to still be favored against Florida -- given the Mertz injury -- and Louisville.
This suggests Vegas believes even a 13-0 Florida State team may have trouble getting in the playoff.
10. My Outkick Top Ten
I think you have to reward Washington at this point for their body of work. Yes, they've played some close games, but the Pac 12 top to bottom, in my opinion, is better than the Big Ten is this year.
1. Georgia
2. Washington
3. Ohio State
4. Michigan
5. Florida State
6. Oregon
7. Texas
8. Alabama
9. Ole Miss
10. Penn State
11. SEC power rankings 1-14
Florida flirted with the biggest upset of the year in the SEC, but in the end, the top teams won. Auburn is a tough case here given the loss to New Mexico State, but given that the Tigers beat Mississippi State and Arkansas this year, I've kept them at ten even with the loss. And South Carolina is probably too high given they are 5-6 and lost to Florida, but the Gators are tough to rank because they also beat Tennessee, but lost to Arkansas.
Ultimately only seven SEC teams are going to win seven or more games, the rest are going to be .500 or below.
So this is my best guess with one week to go.
1. Georgia
2. Alabama
3. Ole Miss
4. LSU
5. Missouri
6. Tennessee
7. Texas A&M
8. South Carolina
9. Kentucky
10. Auburn
11. Mississippi State
12. Arkansas
13. Florida
14. Vanderbilt