Clay Travis's Starting 11: College Football Playoff Predictions Edition

I, like many of you, spent all day Friday and Saturday gorging on a phenomenal weekend of college football rivalry games. 

By the time the final moments of the Iron Bowl ticked away last night, immediately followed by a quick flip over to see the end of SMU at California, and then a recognition that Notre Dame had taken care of Stanford, so there was no need to worry about an upset there, we had a pretty clear idea of 11 spots taken in the college football playoff. 

Those playoff teams, which are essentially locked in, I believe, are as follows:

In the SEC: Georgia, Ole Miss, Texas A&M, Alabama, and Oklahoma are in the playoff. In the Big Ten: Ohio State, Indiana and Oregon are in the playoff. The winner of the Big 12 title game, either Texas Tech or BYU will be in the playoff, a non-power four conference team will be in, and depending on how the ACC title game shakes out, either ACC champ Virginia, ACC champion 8-5 Duke or another non-power four champion will be in. 

That leaves us one spot for the following four strong resumes: 10-2 Miami, 10-2 Vanderbilt, 10-2 Notre Dame, or the 11-2 loser of the Big 12 title game. 

Other schools, like 9-3 Texas and 10-2 Utah, are in the mix as well, but I think they are out of contention. 

I asked you guys to vote on the final four teams I think are in play for the last playoff spot and this was your take:

Essentially we played all this football for all the favorites to keep winning and the committee's decision to get even more difficult. 

The most important thing to remember here, which I will reiterate below, is there are no rules when it comes to at large playoff spots. The committee can do whatever it wants. 

And, by the way, the most dramatic part of the weekend of college football action may well not even have been on the field. Lane Kiffin's destination dominated all conversations. Everywhere I went on Florida's Gulf Coast 30A community all anyone wanted to talk about what was Lane Kiffin's decision was going to be. 

As I'm writing this early on Sunday morning it appears Lane Kiffin is headed to LSU, which has been the way things were trending for weeks. In the event that occurs the drama will be who in the world coaches Ole Miss for their home playoff game in Oxford in three weeks? 

With all that in mind, let's dive into the Starting 11:

1. The SEC is going to have five playoff spots because every top SEC team won and Vanderbilt, right now, is on the outside looking in as the sixth-best team

That really sucks for Vanderbilt, which posted its best season in program history, and absolutely annihilated Tennessee in Neyland Stadium yesterday. 

Diego Pavia is, in my opinion, the best player in college football and deserves the Heisman trophy. 

Over the past four games, Pavia has produced 1,761 yards of offense and 16 touchdowns. 

Against Tennessee, he had 268 yards passing and 165 yards rushing. 

He's a one-man wrecking crew and I think the college football playoff would be immeasurably improved if he were playing in it. 

But I just think that's going to be hard to justify because the other five SEC teams have better resumes. If push came to shove, I think Vanderbilt would beat Oklahoma on a neutral field right now and I also think Vandy would beat Texas and, potentially, Alabama and Ole Miss on neutral fields too.

That's just how good the Commodores are playing. 

They are getting better right now, while other teams have already peaked. (Pavia's Vandy team reminds me of the Johnny Manziel 2012 Texas A&M team that finished 11-2. I think that Aggie team would have won the playoff if they had made it. And Pavia is playing, frankly, a ton like Manziel as well.) 

But they lost to Alabama and to Texas on the road and big wins over LSU, Missouri, and Tennessee aren't likely to be enough to get them in, in my opinion, over Notre Dame or Miami.   

That stinks because one of the real questions for Vanderbilt going forward will be how much of their success this year was Pavia and how much was a strong foundation built for the program? And will the Commodores ever find themselves this close to the playoff again in any of our lives? 

In other words, are they a durable team built for success going forward or was Pavia just that transcendent of a player that he elevated them to places they otherwise wouldn't achieve? 

Time will tell, but for now, Pavia, as you will see discussed below, is my Heisman pick. 

2. Texas's playoff contention is actually a great argument for and against Longhorn inclusion

Texas fans are 100% correct that if they had played a home game against a mid-major foe they would be in the playoff at 10-2. 

It's also 100% correct that if Texas hadn't posted the worst loss in the SEC this season -- at Florida -- they would be in the playoff no matter what at 10-2 as well.   

So everyone screaming each of these arguments into the social media abyss has a strong case. 

What it really boils down to is this, do we want more or less games like Texas at Ohio State? Because playing these games comes with real risks. Right now the playoff committee is basically telling us that all that matters is wins and losses, that is, you are going to be ranked above the teams you have more wins than and below teams you have less wins than. 

But, and this is key, Alabama and Texas both lost to week one opponents. 

Alabama lost to Florida State. As a result the Tide had limited room for error the rest of the way. They had to run their schedule gauntlet with one loss or less in the SEC. And they did. (Credit to Kalen DeBoer for the fourth down decision late in the Iron Bowl, that was a whale of a game. And to Ty Simpson too who took some unbelievable hits in that game too.)

That is, both Alabama and Texas lost week one out of conference games. 

Alabama responded to the SEC challenge, Texas didn't. 

One additional marker -- Oklahoma beat Michigan and that's a big reason why the Sooners made the playoff too. 

Big games come with risks and rewards, you still have the chance to rebound, Texas isn't missing the playoff because they lost to Ohio State, they're missing the playoff because they lost to Florida. 

I would add in one additional marker here, Texas went to overtime at Mississippi State and at Kentucky and was very fortunate to win both games. 

Yes, the Longhorns won both, but I do think you can consider those games as part of the totality of their resume. For most of the year, Texas was not a playoff team. 

Which is why my middle ground take here is the loss to Florida and the overtime games against Mississippi State and Kentucky were actually more emblematic of the team Texas was than the wins over Oklahoma, Vandy and Texas A&M were.

Texas was a mid-tier SEC team this year, capable of high level wins and low level losses. 

Which is why I have Texas as my 7th best SEC team.   

As for Texas A&M, I think there's a strong take that the Aggies aren't that hurt by the loss to Texas. 

Now the Aggies get to stay at home for a playoff game, rest up for nearly a month, and play in front of a bonkers crowd in College Station that should be enough to get them to the round of eight, match up pending.

Now the real question at that point is are the Aggies good enough to win neutral site games?

That remains to be seen. 

3. Miami is the best team in the ACC, but isn't in the conference title game because the Hurricanes lost a five team tiebreak at 6-2 in league play

As a result the ACC title game is Virginia vs. 7-5 Duke. 

This is, quite simply, absurd, and yet another reason why conference title games should be eliminated from the calendar.

Miami, by virtue of their wins out of conference in conjunction with their 6-2 league record, was the best team in the ACC this year. Yes, I know, they lost to both Louisville and SMU. They shouldn't have lost those games, but they rebounded to crush everyone down the stretch and I believe Miami belongs in the playoff when you consider the full totality of their resume, including the big win over Notre Dame to start the season. 

That's especially the case considering I think the final committee decision is likely to come down to Miami vs. Notre Dame and because both teams are likely to end up in close proximity to each other in the final playoff standings.

Roughly two out of three of you believe Miami should be the pick in this scenario. 

It's also the case that the preceding rankings don't matter at all. 

The committee can do whatever it wants with the final rankings. That's where many fans get lost here, they argue based on what the committee has done so far as if it's dispositive of their final choice. But it isn't.   

One big thing to watch for Tuesday: will Alabama jump Notre Dame in the playoff rankings after the Iron Bowl win locking up an SEC title game bid? If they do, and I think they will, those teams are "locked" in place, meaning Alabama's not falling outside the playoff by losing to Georgia. 

If the Tide does jump Notre Dame then we could have Notre Dame sliding back closer still to Miami, especially assuming BYU loses to Texas Tech in the Big 12 title game. 

If the two teams are ranked in essentially the same spot, I don't see how 10-2 Notre Dame gets in over 10-2 Miami.  

Right now the playoff rankings look like this:

9. Notre Dame

10. Alabama

11. BYU

12. Miami

If Alabama jumps Notre Dame -- the committee may well do this to protect Alabama in the event they lose to Georgia -- then you have only BYU separating Notre Dame from Miami. 

And if BYU loses to Texas Tech then you end up with Notre Dame and Miami side by side. 

If the two teams are essentially side by side in the rankings, how does head to head not dictate here?

Head to head is the default decider in all issues of being tied in all sports. 

At that point Notre Dame's only argument is they are simply better. Or that Las Vegas would favor them over Miami on a neutral field. But my response to that is the college football playoff rankings are a combination of two factors: best and most deserving. 

Sometimes those dovetail -- Ohio State and Indiana are ranked one and two because they have been the best and most deserving. 

But other times you have to examine that difference more completely. 

Miami beat Notre Dame head to head, if these are the final two teams up for playoff debate, that has to matter, otherwise why play the game at all?

4. The Big 12 title game is a rematch between Texas Tech and BYU

Part of me thinks the committee would love for BYU to pull off the upset of Texas Tech so they could put Texas Tech in as the final at large and avoid having to decide between Notre Dame, Miami, and Vanderbilt.  

But if Texas Tech wins, as the Red Raiders are favored by quite a lot to do, then BYU would be out of playoff contention. 

I just don't see a world where 11-2 BYU gets in before Notre Dame, Miami or Vanderbilt. 

I think the only way the Big 12 would get two teams in the playoff would be if Texas Tech lost and, honestly, is 11-2 Texas Tech a better resume than 10-2 Miami, 10-2 Notre Dame or 10-2 Vanderbilt? I'm not sure that it is. 

5. Conference title games need to end

When fans in the SEC and Big Ten would rather their teams not make the game than make it, it's a sign that the conference title game era has passed. 

Just let teams be co-champs if they finish with the same record and let's get to the playoff faster. 

I think you take the playoff to 16 teams overall, make them all at large spots with the committee charged with simply picking the top 16 teams, and use the committee to seed teams 1-16. If a non power four team can make the top 16, good for them, they're in the playoff, if they can't, so be it, they're out of the playoff.

I think that's fair. 

If we ended all the conference title games then you could play Army-Navy standalone on December 5th and then start the college football playoff on the weekend of December 12. (Honestly you should start college football a week earlier and bump everything up a week so the final two playoff games are played on January 1 and then you play about eight days later for the title game. You're welcome, college football fans.)

As is, the playoff drags on too long. 

It needs to be more compact. 

The most ideal world, in my opinion, would be playing the title game on January 1. 

But if we can't do that then at least play the final four then.  

6. Alabama isn't missing the playoff because of an SEC title game loss. 

They just aren't. 

I understand some people will argue that could occur. 

I believe they are 100% wrong. 

Technically, Alabama won the SEC, they finished as the overall number one seed in the conference. If the season ended today, they'd be in. If Alabama were to go to the SEC title game and lose and fall out of the playoff then there would be a revolt in the SEC. 

Which is why I think you'll see Alabama bumped up to number nine, passing Notre Dame in the process. 

The Tide could make this very easy by winning the game, but I think that way they'd get a buffer in the playoff rankings. 

The only way I could see Alabama falling out of the playoff with a loss, and this is another reason fans don't want to play these games, is if a season ending injury happened to Ty Simpson like happened to Carson Beck in the SEC title game last year. 

Then you could see the Jordan Travis example dropping the Tide out of the playoff. 

This would, I think, effectively end the conference title games because SEC fans would point to these injuries happening to key players two weeks in a row and ask why teams would risk their best players in an effectively meaningless "title" game that everyone forgets about immediately.

The playoff, effectively, has gotten so much bigger than the title games that they are tossed to the curb.   

7. The best college football outcome imaginable would be the ACC and the committee just changing the rules on who gets the ACC playoff bid

Would that be insane?

Yes. 

Would it result in litigation from Virginia or Duke?

Certainly. 

But would it be perfect for college football?

Of course. 

Because the only real rule in college football is this: there are no rules. 

One additional idea: what about modifying the rule that could allow a non major team in and say that if a conference has a team ranked higher than the eventual league champion that team automatically gets in the playoff instead?

Miami is going to be ranked above the ACC champion. 

Could the rules be changed on the fly like this?

Please refer to my previous rule, there are no rules. 

That change could allow both Miami and Notre Dame in the playoff, which would be good for ratings, revenue, and interest. 

8. Who is in line for the four byes?

I think your four teams getting a bye will be Indiana, Ohio State, the SEC title game winner, and, probably, Texas Tech if the Red Raiders win. 

If the Red Raiders lose then I think you would likely see another SEC team get the bye, potentially Ole Miss. 

Except if Lane Kiffin leaves does the committee ding them there and elevate someone else?

Oh my. 

9. Diego Pavia would get my Heisman vote

I think, looking at the tea leaves and the power dynamics in the committee, that Vanderbilt is unlikely to make the playoff as a sixth SEC playoff team.

Even though, personally, I would like to see this.  

So I would submit a fair consolation prize would be giving Diego Pavia the Heisman trophy to reward him and Vanderbilt football for an extraordinary season.

This could change if either Fernando Mendoza or Julian Sayin have incredible Big Ten title games, but I think it's Pavia or the Big Ten's top quarterback for the Heisman right now.  

10. My Outkick Top Ten

I've expanded my top ten to a top 15 to take into account all of the playoff contenders here. 

1. Ohio State
2. Indiana
3. Georgia
4. Ole Miss
5. Texas A&M
6. Oregon
7. Texas Tech
8. Oklahoma
9. Alabama
10. Vanderbilt
11. Miami
12. Notre Dame
13. BYU
14. Texas 
15. Utah

The toughest thing about the playoff this year?

This is actually the perfect year to take the top 16 because everyone in my top 15 has done enough, I think, to argue they deserve to be in the playoff. 

11. SEC power rankings 1-16

The only really "controversial" take here, in the rankings, I suppose, could be Vandy above Texas, but I think Vandy, notwithstanding the road loss in Austin, was the more consistent team all year in the SEC.  

And if you look at my national rankings above, I have Vandy quite a few spots above Texas. 

Others could disagree and flip them. 

But the rest of the rankings, I think, are pretty accurate based on what we saw all season. 

1. Georgia
2. Ole Miss
3. Texas A&M
4. Oklahoma
5. Alabama
6. Vanderbilt
7. Texas
8. Missouri
9. Tennessee
10. LSU
11. Kentucky
12. Florida
13. Auburn
14. Mississippi State
15. South Carolina
16. Arkansas