Clay Travis's Starting 11: Alabama Owns Georgia Edition

As the third quarter ended and Sanford Stadium rose as one to celebrate the oncoming fourth quarter with an outstanding light show, my 15-year-old Alabama fan son turned to me and said, "We are not winning this game."

Georgia was driving — for much of the second half, the Tide had been pinned back deep and Georgia had been flirting with taking the lead — a dropped touchdown pass late in the third quarter continued to loom large — and everyone in the stadium expected the Bulldogs to score.

With 13 minutes left, Georgia moved very fast, smoke from the fireworks that went off during the stadium celebration still lingered over the field, but Gunner Stockton had just run to the Alabama eight-yard line to make it fourth and 1.

I thought we might get a play stoppage to review the spot, but Georgia elected to pass up the chip shot field goal to tie the game and instead handed off to Cash Jones, who skittered outside and was tripped up for a loss of three yards.

ATHENS, GA - SEPTEMBER 27: Quarterback Ty Simpson #15 of the Alabama Crimson Tide passes the ball during the college football game between the Alabama Crimson Tide and the Georgia Bulldogs on September 27, 2025, at Sanford Stadium in Athens, GA. (Photo by Jeffrey Vest/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)

Even though there were still 13 minutes left, Georgia would only get the ball one more time.

That was their last best chance to send Kalen DeBoer back to Tuscaloosa on a seat so hot it wouldn't cool all season.

Instead, Alabama survived despite not scoring in the entire second half and Georgia fans were left walking home from the stadium screaming curses into the night sky.

1. Kirby Smart can beat everyone but Alabama

A couple of crazy stats for you: Kirby Smart is now 1-7 against Alabama and Georgia overall is 1-10 in their last eleven games against the Tide. Kirby Smart has more NATIONAL TITLES than he does wins against Alabama.

Bonkers.

The Tide rolled into Georgia and ended the Bulldogs 33-game home winning streak.

In so doing, the much-maligned Kalen DeBoer ran his record in top ten games to 7-1 and, at least for now, eased concerns among Tide faithful that the post-Saban era in Alabama was going to herald a return to merely good football from great for Alabama.

The schedule is still daunting for Alabama, but the Tide have rebounded from the Florida State loss and most reasonable fans, truth be told, probably expected Alabama to lose this game before the season and beat Florida State. Certainly, I did. Instead, Alabama flipped those results and now will enter October as, believe it or not, the new favorite to win the SEC in the gambling markets.

Alabama quarterback Ty Simpson was very good all night and, most importantly, his offensive line kept him mostly untouched, even on 38 pass attempts.

The Tide also withstood an electric environment, not turning the ball over all night. (They did have the one blocked field goal attempt and a botched play execution on a fourth down near midfield, but other than that they were much crisper than at Florida State).  

ATHENS, GEORGIA - SEPTEMBER 27: Head coach Kirby Smart of the Georgia Bulldogs looks on before the game against the Alabama Crimson Tide at Sanford Stadium on September 27, 2025 in Athens, Georgia. (Photo by Todd Kirkland/Getty Images)

And the playcalling, especially on third down, was excellent. Alabama went 13-for-19 on third downs, extending many drives all night long against the much-vaunted Kirby Smart defense.

Having said all of this, the 3-1 Bulldogs are still in decent shape thanks to Tennessee shanking a field goal late.

I'm going to write it until I'm proven wrong: if you get to 10-2 in the SEC, you're going to make the playoff almost every year.

And I still like Georgia's chances to get to 10-2, even with Ole Miss, Texas, and at Georgia Tech still on the schedule.

As for Alabama, I expected them to lose this game and then expected them to lose at least one more against their brutal SEC schedule. Now the Tide have created some space for themselves. Go 7-1 from here and Alabama won't just be in the playoff, they'd have a very good chance to return to Atlanta and the SEC Championship game, which would guarantee them a playoff spot.

That's quite the change from the first week of the season expectations.

But, a note of caution, Kalen DeBoer's issues haven't necessarily been in the "big" games, they've been when Alabama is a double-digit favorite and no one expects a loss. The Tide's October is filled with games Alabama will be favored to win: Vanderbilt, at Missouri, Tennessee, and at South Carolina.

A win over Alabama would make any of these team's seasons.

So how can Alabama deal with success? We'll find out.

Remember last year, Alabama went on the road and played their best game of the year at LSU.

And then they followed it up a couple of weeks later with their worst game of the year, at Oklahoma.  

2. Penn State lost to Oregon and the James Franklin can't win the big game critics are going to spend the next several weeks crowing about the loss

And that's completely fair at this point.

Penn State is 4-21 against top ten teams with James Franklin as coach.

Oregon was the game Penn State circled on the calendar all season, the white-out game where the Nittany Lions would demonstrate they were truly among the nation's elite teams and notch a huge victory in front of a monster TV audience.

STATE COLLEGE, PENNSYLVANIA - SEPTEMBER 27: Chaz Coleman #19 of the Penn State Nittany Lions punches the ball out from Noah Whittington #6 of the Oregon Ducks during the third quarter at Beaver Stadium on September 27, 2025 in State College, Pennsylvania. (Photo by Isaiah Vazquez/Getty Images)

Instead, for much of the second half, it looked like Oregon was going to pull away with this one, but then after a late 14-point rally to force overtime, it felt like Penn State had all the momentum and was going to win a huge game against a top opponent.

But instead, Drew Allar threw another crushing interception just like he did at the end of the Notre Dame playoff game and Penn State fans are rightly shaking their heads and wondering when things will change.

The Nittany Lion loss is going to potentially create an intriguing playoff situation: Penn State will likely lose at Ohio State in a few weeks, yet will be favored in every other game. Indiana is the only team other than Ohio State likely to be ranked in the top 25 left on the Penn State schedule.

So would 10-2 Penn State, with losses to Oregon and Ohio State and no other significant top wins, make the playoff?

I think so, because I think that would put Penn State clearly as the third-best team in the Big Ten, but would that leave Nittany Lion fans happy? Probably not.

Interestingly, James Franklin's coaching resume would probably be less critiqued if he'd lost to three or four teams he shouldn't have, but had also beaten three or four more top ten opponents in the process. In other words, the criticism of him would be less if he'd lost more games to inferior opponents, but beaten some top ten opponents in exchange for those losses. Instead, the easy angle of attack on him is that he simply can't win the big game.

And until he wins the national title, frankly, he's probably going to carry that burden, not dissimilar, honestly, to what everyone said about Jim Harbaugh at Michigan until Harbaugh suddenly won his national title (and beat Ohio State in the process.)  

3. Oregon is the team I'm most confident will be in the playoff

Dan Lanning has built a tough, physical team in the pacific northwest.

The Ducks made their college football name by scoring a ton of points in Chip Kelly's high-powered, fast-paced offense, but Lanning has built a roster of elite talent that looks more like Georgia, Alabama or Ohio State than it does the Marcus Mariota-era Oregon teams.

After this huge win, Indiana at Autzen is the only top 25 team left on the Duck schedule.

And the Ducks are already 5-0.

UNIVERSITY PARK, PA - SEPTEMBER 27: Oregon running back Dierre Hill, Jr. (23) celebrates with fans after the Oregon Ducks versus Penn State Nittany Lions game on September 27, 2025 at Beaver Stadium in University Park, PA. (Photo by Randy Litzinger/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)

Which is why I think you can stamp their ticket, likely, to the Big Ten title game, and I'd be shocked if they didn't make the playoff too.

I just don't see three possible losses on this schedule.  

In fact, if I had to bet on any team to be most likely to make the playoff at this point, it would be Oregon.

4. Ole Miss is 5-0 and has three wins in the SEC already

The Rebels will be 6-0 when they head to Athens to play Georgia. (Washington State isn't going to win in Oxford.) Then after Georgia comes at Oklahoma, South Carolina, The CItadel, Florida and at Mississippi State.

I don't want to jinx long-suffering Ole Miss fans here, but this LSU win was HUGE for setting the table for Ole Miss to get to 10-2. Even with losses at Georgia and at Oklahoma, Ole Miss would be favored in the rest of their games. Yes, I know, the Egg Bowl against a much improved Bulldog team would leave every Ole Miss fan with outrageous apprehension after what happened last year at Florida, but taking care of LSU was monumental for the Rebels.

As for LSU, the offense has real issues.

It may upset Brian Kelly to be asked about it, but LSU was outgained 480 to 254 yards.

The game, play to play, wasn't actually as close as the final score was.

Against FBS opponents, LSU has scored 17, 23, 20, and 19. That's not going to win you many football games in the SEC.

In fact, I don't see LSU as a playoff team this year. I think they will lose three or more in conference and I think Brian Kelly's pressure is going to grow immensely as a result.    

5. Texas A&M should have beaten Auburn by more than they did, but the Aggies are 4-0 and the defense is improving

The Aggies dominated Auburn in total yardage 414 to 177, but never really put the Tigers away all day, eventually notching their fourth win to give A&M a clear path to 7-0 (Mississippi State, Florida and at Arkansas are the next three). Then come road games down the stretch at LSU, at Missouri and at Texas.

Cover your eyes, battered A&M fans, I like the Aggies playoff chances, I really do, but they need to win these next three. I think we'll have a better read on this team after those games.

COLLEGE STATION, TEXAS - SEPTEMBER 27: Amari Daniels #5 of the Texas A&M Aggies runs with the ball against the Auburn Tigers in the first quarter at Kyle Field on September 27, 2025 in College Station, Texas. (Photo by Kenneth Richmond/Getty Images)

As for Auburn, if you'd told Hugh Freeze his team would hold Oklahoma to 24 and Texas A&M to 16, I think he would have expected to win at least one of these two games. Beating either Georgia, a tall order, I know, or Missouri feels like a must for the Tigers to right their season ship.

If they can do that, then the schedule gets a bit more manageable.

But I think the biggest issue, honestly, is just Jackson Arnold holds the football too long and isn't consistent enough to win big games.

It's why Oklahoma moved on from him, and it's what I think Auburn fans are slowly starting to realize too.

6. Arkansas is going to fire Sam Pittman, it's just a question of when

I like Sam Pittman, he seems like a really good, likable guy, but the Razorback performance at home against Notre Dame was positively dreadful.

Notre Dame looked like a top ten team for the first time all season — the Irish ran up 641 offensive yards and could have named their score — but as good as Notre Dame was, I think this was it for Pittman. His Razorbacks gave up a huge lead against Memphis last week and I thought they'd be so sick about that conclusion that they would show up and play their best game of the season at home against Notre Dame.

I mean, this was a huge game for the program. How often are the Fighting Irish ever going to come to Fayetteville?

I was totally wrong.

Arkansas was a total no show.

So now the question is just when is the decision made?

During this bye week wouldn't shock me. You could elevate Bobby Petrino and see if he does anything to suggest he's the guy, or you go back into the pool of younger coaches.

Or you finally bring Jon Gruden to the SEC.

Buckle up, this should be fun to watch.

7. Tennessee outlasted Mississippi State and Diego Pavia took Vanderbilt to 5-0.

The one knock on Josh Heupel since he returned Tennessee to relevance is he hasn't been anywhere near as good on the road as he is at home and, in particular, there is always at least one road game a year, generally against a substantially inferior opponent, where his team just doesn't show up.

For much of the day, that looked like it would be the case against Mississippi State.

But the Vols, to their credit, found a way to get a win and the Bulldogs, who appear much improved, weren't quite able to get a big home win.

STARKVILLE, MS - SEPTEMBER 27: Tennessee Volunteers running back Star Thomas (9) runs the ball during the college football game between the Tennessee Volunteers and Mississippi State Bulldogs on September 27, 2025, at Davis Wade Stadium in Starkville, Mississippi.(Photo by Jason Homan/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)

I still think Tennessee will lose to Alabama and be 5-2 with five games to play, four of them in the SEC. Kentucky and Florida on the road and Oklahoma and Vanderbilt at home. Ultimately, I just don't see Tennessee running the table against those four teams, which is why I said the missed field goal against Georgia was so crushing. To me, I think it may cost the Vols a playoff shot.

But if the Vols play like they did in Starkville, they'll lose more than one of these four games and the Georgia loss won't be as significant as it seemed a couple of weeks ago.  

Back in Nashville, Diego Pavia had six touchdowns, five passing and one rushing, and Vanderbilt is 5-0 and headed to Alabama for the rematch against the Tide.

8. Florida State lost to Virginia on Friday night and the Seminoles now face a huge game against Miami with a loss on their resume

I know many of us penciled FSU into the ACC title game against Miami — or at least most of us did — after the Alabama win and the subsequent drubbings the Seminoles put on their opponents, but this was still a 2-10 team last year.  

Maybe we overreacted to how impressive that Alabama win was.

Congrats to Virginia on the win — and the fastest field storming I've ever seen — and the result is there are only three undefeated teams left in the ACC: Miami, Louisville and Georgia Tech, who staged an impressive comeback on the road against Wake Forest to win their game in overtime.

My point here?

FSU needs to win against Miami on Saturday because, otherwise, starting with two ACC losses may well be difficult to overcome when it comes to making the ACC title game.

9. Some teams have played nearly half their regular season schedules — we're five weeks into the season now — so I don't think it's crazy to look at the national title odds

This is the top 17 teams most likely to win a title as of late Saturday night:

• Ohio State 5-1
• Oregon 6-1
• Texas 7.5 to 1
• Penn State 8-1\
• Alabama 8.5-1
• Georgia 9-1
• Miami 14-1
• Ole Miss 20-1
• Oklahoma 20-1
• Texas A&M 20-1
• LSU 25-1
• Notre Dame 27-1
• Indiana 40-1
• Michigan 45-1
• Missouri 45-1
• Tennessee 50-1
• Texas Tech 50-1

A couple of things stand out: Vegas thinks the Big 12 teams aren't very good and four of the top six teams, in Vegas's opinion, have already lost games, yet still have very good title odds.

10. My Outkick Top Ten

As always, a reminder, I only rank teams based on actual games played, not what I expected to see before the season started, but what we have actually seen on the field so far this season. And, yes, I have Alabama ranked even though they lost to Florida State. Why? I think the win over Georgia was incredibly impressive and, frankly, there aren't that many teams with great resumes at this point. The losses for top teams are piling up in a hurry.  

1. Miami
2. Oregon
3. Ole Miss
4. Ohio State
5. Vanderbilt
6. Texas A&M
7. Oklahoma
8. Texas Tech
9. Indiana
10. Alabama

11. My SEC power rankings 1-16

Similar to my top ten, I only rank the SEC teams based on their actual on field results, not what I expect to see, but what we have actually seen.

With that in mind, I think this is a pretty good read on where we are as we approach the midpoint of the season.

1. Ole Miss
2. Vanderbilt
3. Texas A&M
4. Oklahoma
5. Alabama
6. Georgia
7. Tennessee
8. LSU
9. Missouri
10. Mississippi State
11. Texas
12. South Carolina
13. Auburn
14. Kentucky
15. Arkansas
16. Florida