Brewers Magic Has Deserted Milwaukee At The Worst Possible Time
Milwaukee goes 6-9 in last 15 games after posting best 60-game run in franchise history
Just a few weeks ago, the Milwaukee Brewers seemed unbeatable.
They went 44-16 in a 60-game stretch, the best 60-game run in the history of the organization. Then they won eight more games in a row, moving to 52-16 over a 68-game sample. In the middle of that stretch, they won a game 10-8 after falling behind to the Cincinnati Reds 8-1 in the bottom of the second inning.
The Brewers tore through the league, sweeping the Dodgers 6-0 in the season series, for example, on their way to having the best run differential in Major League Baseball, and a massive lead in the NL Central. But in yet another example of how the miraculous in baseball never seems to last, things have taken a turn in the past three weeks. And the Brewers' flaws are suddenly being exposed in a way that doesn't inspire confidence with the playoffs just a few weeks away.
CHICAGO, ILLINOIS - AUGUST 20: Jacob Misiorowski #32 of the Milwaukee Brewers pitches during the first inning against the Chicago Cubs at Wrigley Field on August 20, 2025 in Chicago, Illinois. (Photo by Geoff Stellfox/Getty Images)
Brewers Dangerous In October, But With Significant Issues
One of the highlights of the Brewers' explosion in the middle part of the season was rookie starting pitcher Jacob Misiorowski. Misiorowski burst onto the scene with a 101mph fastball, devastating slider, and a penchant for strikeouts. Seemingly unhittable, he was invited to the All-Star Game after just a handful of starts.
Well, of late, the results for Misiorowski have been, to put it mildly, bad. Over his last 18.2 innings, he's allowed 28 baserunners and 16 earned runs, good for a 7.71 ERA. Over his last 32 innings, Misiorowski's had a 6.19 ERA.
There's a lot of bad luck in those numbers; his expected statistics are far better. But therein lies the problem; for months, the Brewers wildly outperformed their expected stats. At some point, regression is an inevitability. And in the past few weeks, it's hit them hard.
Milwaukee is just 6-9 in their last 15 games, the third-worst record in the National League over that timespan. They've lost leads, seen their bullpen struggle, and their penchant for timely hitting has suddenly disappeared. Trevor Megill, their star closer, went down with a flexor strain in his elbow, though he is throwing a bullpen this week.
After months of collectively hitting like prime-Babe Ruth with runners in scoring position, over the last few weeks, the Brewers rank 17th in batting average in those same situations. In "high leverage" situations, MIlwaukee's hitting just .188 since August 18th. That's 27th in MLB over that timespan.
Another example of how things have changed with Milwaukee is first baseman Andrew Vaughn. Vaughn was arguably the best hitter in baseball for the month of July after joining the Brewers from the Chicago White Sox. A former top draft pick, Vaughn just needed a change of scenery and leaving a moribund franchise, the narrative went.
Over the last month though, Vaughn's reverted back to his White Sox form. Since August 2nd, he's hit just .231, with a .300 on-base percentage and .333 slugging percentage. It's gotten much worse recently. Since the 18th of August, Vaughn's hitting .192, with a .271 on-base percentage and .212 slugging percentage. That's a .483 OPS. In July, his OPS was 1.157, thanks to a .426 OBP and .731 slugging percentage.
Maybe the narratives were wrong after all.
Milwaukee is still a very good team; Jackson Chourio is back, their lineup has enviable depth, Misiorowski has elite stuff and Freddy Peralta's been exceptionally consistent. But the Brewers' ability to outperform their expected performance has seemingly disappeared overnight, and at the worst possible time. Right as the playoffs are about to get underway.