Blue Jays Have Proven Fans, Baseball Media, Former Players Wrong In World Series

The Toronto Blue Jays are just one win away from a championship after another dominant performance in Game 5 on Wednesday night. Behind rookie Trey Yesavage, and some more early luck, Toronto jumped out to a lead they'd never relinquish. And with the Los Angeles Dodgers' shaky bullpen unable to keep the game close, it spiraled to a 6-1 win, giving Toronto a 3-2 lead as the series heads back to Rogers Centre.

Yesavage was dominant, seven innings with just one run allowed, 12 strikeouts and no walks. It was a remarkable performance, given the stage, the opponent, and the importance of the game. He was helped out by the typically surprising Blue Jays offense. Starting with the leadoff hitter, Davis Schneider, replacing the injured George Springer. On the first pitch of the game, Schneider hit a 97mph fly ball that traveled 373 feet for a homer. Fly balls hit with that exit velocity and a 34 degree launch angle have an expected batting average of just .230, meaning they're outs 77% of the time. In Game 5? It was a home run and early lead for Toronto. 

Is that luck? Or did Schneider, decades before he was born, influence the architects of Dodger Stadium in the early-1960's to put the fences at precisely the right spot so that he would one day hit a fly ball the exact distance necessary to defy the batted ball odds and help his team in the World Series? We'll never know the answer.

On the flip side of that beneficial batted ball luck, the Dodgers went the opposite direction. With the game still close, Shohei Ohtani hit a scorching line drive, the second-hardest hit ball of the postseason at over 117mph. Based on the exit velo and launch angle, it had an expected batting average of .870. In Game 5? It was caught in right field for an out. That outcome was a microcosm of why fans, the media and former players are often completely wrong about baseball. 

The Dodgers were widely criticized in the offseason as "ruining" the sport. It wasn't worth watching the games, the thinking went, because the outcome was now predetermined. Just hand the Dodgers the trophy. Why even bother playing the games…social media was flooded with such comments. As another example, here's a few quotes summarizing the attitude of baseball media towards the Dodgers offseason acquisitions:

"…terrible for baseball." — Jon Heyman, New York Post.

"The payroll discrepancy is not a good thing for baseball." — Rowan Kavner.

"Most worrisome is the rhetoric that fans are done with the game… That the financial imbalance ruins the sport." — Jeff Passan, ESPN.

Chris "Mad Dog" Russo calls the Dodgers’ spending "a disgrace" and debates whether it’s "ruining a level playing field." — ESPN First Take.

"In 2025, the baseball world mutters about them… allegedly ruining the game." — Bill Shaikin (L.A. Times)

A few former players jumped in too.

Mark Teixiera, who signed a massive 8-year, $180 million contract in 2009 with the small-market underdog Yankees, said about their spending, "…This is getting ridiculous…I think this is starting to create fissures in the fan base, and the health of the game needs to be really dissected to see if there’s a way that we can make things a little bit more equitable, a little bit more fair."

Trevor May said that the Dodgers' signings meant there was "…a really good chance there is a work stoppage again."

Fans were significantly more hyperbolic and fatalistic. How's that working out? Well, the Dodgers are now down 3-2 in the Series after being outscored 12-3 at home in Games 4 and 5 by a mediocre Blue Jays lineup. Welcome to baseball, and why the wailing and gnashing of teeth was always so absurd.

Oct 27, 2025; Los Angeles, California, USA; Toronto Blue Jays catcher Alejandro Kirk (30) celebrate after hitting a three run home run against the Los Angeles Dodgers in the fourth inning during game three of the 2025 MLB World Series at Dodger Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Kirby Lee-Imagn Images

Blue Jays Show Why It's Impossible To Ruin Baseball

The World Series has demonstrated, for fans willing to engage in intellectual honesty, why it's not possible to "ruin baseball" or build an unbeatable superteam. Here are some examples, based on data, showing how teams like Toronto can ride luck and beneficial timing to dominant series wins.

Trey Yesavage is rightfully receiving praise for his start. But Yesavage, entering the game, had been thoroughly mediocre, only in the rotation because the Blue Jays had no better option. In AA and AAA, he had a 4.37 ERA, walking 22 hitters in 47.1 innings. Through his first 14 regular season innings, Yesavage allowed 20 baserunners. He had a 4.26 ERA in the playoffs entering Wednesday after giving up nine runs in his previous 13.2 innings pitched, with 23 baserunners allowed. But pitchers with good stuff and poor command are high variance, meaning they can periodically dominate after stretches of inconsistency. As is so often the case, that's exactly what happened. Impressive in this one game? Yes. An indicator that on any given night, even mediocre pitchers can dominate quality lineups? Also yes. That's why you can't predict the outcome of a series or season based on talent.

Another simple discrepancy thus far is batting average on balls in play. League average BABIP is roughly .300. Toronto's team BABIP in the World Series is .297. The Dodgers team BABIP is .236. Addison Barger's BABIP in the series is .538, an insane, unsustainable figure that would regress over a longer time frame. Except there's now, at most, two games remaining. The Dodgers have been extremely unlucky. The Blue Jays haven't.

Los Angeles is hitting the ball harder than the Blue Jays, with an average exit velocity of 90.1mph to 86.2mph. For context, 86.2mph is catastrophically low. Were that an individual player, it would rank tied for 233rd out of 251 qualified hitters in the 2025 regular season. Toronto's barrel rate is also much lower, at 6.2% to 11.0%. The Dodgers' 11% collective barrel rate would rank in the top 10 among individual players this year, well ahead of stars like Nick Kurtz, Manny Machado, Corbin Carroll, Bobby Witt Jr., and Rafael Devers. Toronto's 6.2% barrel rate is the same that Detroit's Colt Keith had this season. 

LA's hard hit percentage is higher than Toronto's, 39.7% to 35.2%. Consequently, the Dodgers' expected slugging percentage is .446, while Toronto's is just .406. The difference in the series? The Blue Jays have either been fortunate to exceed their expected stats, or been close to their underlying performance. Toronto's slugging percentage is .389, compared to the .406 expected mark. The Dodgers? Their actual slugging is .354 compared to .446. 

It's much the same with weighted on base average. wOBA, for short, is similar to OPS, but heavily values more important events like home runs. As an overall measure of offensive performance based on run values from each offensive at bat, it's better for identifying the best players and teams. In the World Series? Toronto's expected wOBA, based on their quality of contact, is .327. For the Dodgers, it's .323. Basically even. Once again though, Toronto's been closer to achieving their "deserved" results. The actual wOBA for the Blue Jays offense is .317 to just .279 for LA. The Blue Jays have a 10-point gap. The Dodgers have a 44-point gap.

Four of the top six hitters in the series by expected wOBA have been Dodgers:

1. Freddie Freeman xwOBA .533 - actual wOBA .364
2. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. xwOBA .467 - actual wOBA .475
3. Shohei Ohtani xwOBA .463 - actual wOBA .526
4. Alejandro Kirk xwOBA .446 - actual wOBA .451
5. Teoscar Hernandez xwOBA .446 - actual wOBA .363
6. Will Smith xwOBA .440 - actual wOBA .320

See how many Dodgers hitters have been well below their expected results? That's why the Blue Jays have scored 29 runs to the Dodgers' 18. It's not because the Blue Jays are trying harder, or are the better team, or have some type of offensive approach that is more successful in the postseason. It's because they have been more fortunate.

The two "luckiest" hitters in the series, by gap between actual and expected wOBA, have been Toronto's Davis Schneider and Addison Barger. The fifth and sixth-luckiest hitters in the series are Toronto's Ernie Clement and Ty France. Six of the eight unluckiest hitters in the series have been Dodgers: Miguel Rojas, Andy Pages, Freeman, Smith, Alex Call and Teoscar Hernandez. 

Playoff Narratives Are Simply Wrong

So what's the broader takeaway from all this data? Most people paid to give their opinions about baseball professionally have no idea what they're talking about. Including, and often especially, former players. There is no explanation for why the Blue Jays are now huge favorites to win the World Series other than pure variance.

Nothing matters in October. There is no predictive value to what they've done, no number that shows that X team will beat X team in a short series. Playoff experience doesn't matter, because if it did, the Dodgers would be running away with the series. Youth doesn't matter. Age doesn't matter. Managers don't really matter. Home field advantage is virtually nonexistent in the postseason. The one thing that has some level of value? Hitting more home runs than your opponent in an individual game. Teams that do that are now 29-5 in the 2025 playoffs. It's been that way for years. What do baseball media and most former players heavily criticize? Trying to hit home runs in the playoffs. Makes sense.

The Dodgers in the offseason could trade for Tarik Skubal, sign Kyle Tucker, trade for Aaron Judge, and still get swept in the World Series. Or lose in the NLDS. The gaps between teams are minuscule in Major League Baseball. Just look at these two. The Blue Jays' run differential was +77, worse than the 81-81 Texas Rangers. Their expected win-loss record is 88-74, while the Dodgers' expected win-loss record is 95-67. Even that gap in expected winning percentage is just 4%, over the course of 162 games. That's effectively meaningless in a small sample size, like, say, a postseason series. 

And that's why it's not possible to ruin baseball. It's why all the media, the fans, the former players were wrong about the Dodgers being overwhelming favorites. Why the Blue Jays' results this series have proven them wrong.

There are no lessons to learn from the 2025 World Series, unless you believe that signing bad players and hoping they wildly overperform their talent levels in a random 14-15 game sample is a realistic strategy. There's no secret formula the Blue Jays have unlocked. Nathan Lukes is a career minor leaguer having the best few weeks of his life. Ernie Clement was DFA'd by the Guardians not long ago. Daulton Varsho has been a slightly below league average hitter in his career, now hitting like a superstar in the postseason. Over 707 regular season plate appearances, Addison Barger has been a below-average hitter. In the postseason, he's been 73% better than league average, or roughly the same offensive player as Aaron Judge or Shohei Ohtani. Once Barger's insane .538 BABIP drops, he'll revert back to normal. But over a small sample, like a best-of-7 series, that regression might not come in time to matter.

Alejandro Kirk has a .524 slugging percentage in the postseason, while his career line is .398. Andres Gimenez is hitting .221 in the postseason overall, yet is 7-14 with runners in scoring position. 

If these players could simply choose to be better in the playoffs, why do they not also choose to play better in the regular season too? At an individual level, this type of offensive production would lead to $200-300 million contract offers in free agency. Or a lucrative extension offer from their current organization. Yet they simply don't care enough about their own financial success to try harder in the regular season or coming up in the minor leagues? Bizarre priorities!

The Dodgers entered the World Series 9-1 in the playoffs. They've lost three out of five. Is it remotely surprising that an unsustainably hot team has regressed after a hot streak? Of course not. It happens all the time in the regular season. Nobody notices or cares. Now though, with the microscope on, it's a sign of some fatal flaw on the Dodgers roster, and the supposed superiority of the Blue Jays' strategy of having a few good players and surrounding them with bad ones.

For context, Toronto is now 10-6 in October. The Dodgers are 11-4. None of this means anything, but that's a boring explanation people can't accept. So they simply make stuff up to rationalize what randomness can explain. That's how the Blue Jays have proven everyone wrong. They assumed baseball was predictable, rational, and consistent. It's none of those things.

LA could recover and win the World Series, and then all the now-silent critics will return to saying they've ruined the sport. Or if the Blue Jays finish out the series in Toronto, they'll go right back to the pre-2024 messaging. The Dodgers are chokers, who can't get the job done. All while acting like they never stomped their feet and clutched their pearls for a salary cap. It's a joke.