With Yankees Loss, Small Market Teams Dominate American League Playoffs

The New York Yankees are out of the 2025 playoffs. After a massive Aaron Judge home run saved them in game three at Yankee Stadium, the offense once again disappeared in game four. The Blue Jays offense kept adding on, racking up 12 hits against the formerly unhittable Cam Schlitter and a beleaguered Yankees bullpen. A 5-2 win closed out another disappointing playoff campaign, after 2024 ended with a loss to the Dodgers in the World Series. 

And just like that, the Yankees are ensured of yet another season without a championship. Their last was 2009. They've won just once in the last 25 seasons. High payrolls, massive stars, big-name signings; none of it's been able to return baseball's signature franchise to glory. 

New York's exit, their defeat of the Boston Red Sox in the wild card series, the Rangers and Astros missing the playoffs entirely, and the Angels continued mediocrity. There's now not a single traditional big market team left on the American League side of the postseason bracket. With the results of game five between the Seattle Mariners and Detroit Tigers pending, the AL representative will be one of those three teams: Toronto, Seattle or Detroit. Not exactly the names that come to mind when you think of powerhouse organizations in free agency.

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NEW YORK, NY - JULY 08: Cal Raleigh #29 of the Seattle Mariners rounds the bases during the game between the Seattle Mariners and the New York Yankees at Yankee Stadium on Tuesday, July 8, 2025 in New York, New York. (Photo by Michael Urakami/MLB Photos via Getty Images)

Yankees Window To Win With Aaron Judge Closing?

The Yankees loss also guarantees that a sixth different AL team will reach the World Series in the last eight years. 40% of the American League will have reached the championship series in just the last eight years. Meanwhile, in the NFL, there's been just seven teams from either conference to reach the Super Bowl in the last eight years. The AFC has seen just three teams out of 16 reach the Super Bowl since the 2018 season. Three. 

This is the league that needs help with competitive balance? This is the league that needs a salary cap to level the playing field? While the NFL has atrocious competitive balance?

What the Yankees loss demonstrates, yet again, is that the playoffs are not an exact science. While it's possible to use money to build a playoff-caliber team, though, looking at the 2025 Mets, that's not always a guarantee either. There's no level of talent or payroll that's enough. The gaps between good teams in Major League Baseball is so small that even the "better team" will lose 40-45% of the time in a postseason series. 

For years, the narrative went that the Yankees simply needed Aaron Judge to step up in the playoffs to finally get over the hump. The best hitter in baseball, odds-on favorite to win another MVP, the one knock on Judge's resume has been his struggles in October. Well in 2025, Judge hit .500/.581/.692. He had 13 hits in 26 at bats, reached base more often than he made an out, and the Yankees still lost.

It's worth asking, then, how much longer will the Yankees window with him be open? How much longer will Judge be this good? He'll turn 34 soon after the start of the 2026 season, and while he was once again astonishingly good offensively in 2025, age comes for everyone. 

The Yankees will have plenty of money available in free agency. Gerrit Cole should return at some point around the early-middle part of the season. Cody Bellinger thrived in the Bronx, making him a desirable target to retain if he exercises his player option. There's plenty of reason to expect them to make the playoffs yet again in 2026. What happens after that is almost entirely a crapshoot.