Which Teams Are Overrated And Underrated In New AP Top 25 Poll?
Ole Miss, Oklahoma, Tennessee and Alabama all rank significantly higher in SP+ efficiency metrics than human poll
Week One of the 2025 college football season is in the books, and as always, there were surprises and upsets galore.
Those upsets led to a bit of a shakeup in the newest AP Top 25 Poll, with the LSU Tigers jumping into the top 3, Miami moving into the top-5, and the Alabama Crimson Tide tumbling down into the low-20's.
But the first AP Poll to be released after Week One is frequently influenced by where teams were ranked in the preseason poll. Preseason polls, as have already been well documented, can often be misleading. Both by underrating teams, and overrating them. Those preseason rankings are still heavily weighted in week one, which can influence the rest of the season with strength of schedule arguments and conference rankings.
So how did the new AP Poll do relative to more advanced efficiency and analytics-heavy ranking systems? A bit of a mixed bag.
labama Crimson Tide head coach Kalen DeBoer. Photo: Melina Myers-Imagn Images
AP Poll Helps Some Teams, Hurts Others
As one example of an advanced system and how it comes to the AP Poll, we can look at SP+, a forward-looking ranking created by Bill Connelly and hosted by ESPN.
SP+, which looks at offensive, defensive, and special teams efficiency relative to the average college football team, still incorporates preseason projections based on recruiting rankings, returning talent, and performance in 2024. Those preseason projections are gradually phased out over the coming weeks, but in the meantime, it does help provide a check on human biases and assumptions. And sure enough, there are some drastic differences.
The biggest difference? The Ole Miss Rebels.
Ole Miss ranks just 20th in the AP Poll, but SP+ is far more optimistic, with Lane Kiffin's team sitting 4th thanks to some excellent efficiency rankings in 2024. Several other SEC teams are "underrated" by the AP Poll. Oklahoma is 18th in the AP, but 7th in SP+. Tennessee is 22nd in the AP and 8th in SP+. Alabama, despite the ugly loss to Florida State, still sits 11th in SP+, compared to 21st in the AP Poll.
Might the SEC as a conference now actually be…underrated? Seems like it.
There's also some schools that are unranked by the human poll that are very highly regarded by efficiency metrics. The USC Trojans, for example, sit 14th in SP+, despite not cracking the top 25 in the AP Poll. Missouri is 16th in the SP+ rankings, but unranked as well. Louisville, TCU and Auburn are also teams that could be in the top 25 teams too.
On the other hand, there are teams that are being overrated by human voters, for a variety of reasons. The Texas Longhorns dropped to 13th in SP+, but after starting as the preseason number one in the AP Poll, they dropped only to 7th. Notre Dame too, lost a disappointing road game to Miami. Poll voters dropped them only three spots to 9th, while SP+ is far more pessimistic at 18th.
The most overrated teams though? Clemson and Illinois. SP+ thinks Clemson is just the 25th best team in the country, with Illinois at 21st. They rank 8th and 11th respectively.
So what does all of this tell us?
Well, one of the most obvious takeaways is that preseason rankings and assumptions heavily influence week one rankings. Both positively and negatively. Putting Clemson at #4 might have seemed reasonable because of returning production, but the quality of that returning production matters too. And Clemson hasn't been an elite team, efficiency wise, in quite some time. So LSU gets the benefit of a win over a "top 5 Clemson team," when Clemson was more likely a top 15 team. Does that mean LSU isn't deserving of a high ranking? No, but it demonstrates how season-long narratives are created based on preseason rankings.
Illinois had a great 2024 season on the field, but didn't show enough to warrant its lofty AP ranking. So for teams that play Illinois early on, like Duke, Indiana and USC, they get the benefit of a highly-ranked opponent, even if the Illini don't entirely deserve it.
Conversely, USC is being punished for losing close games in 2024, even though the fact that they were in those close games is reason for optimism. For example, the Trojans averaged nearly 8 yards per play against Notre Dame, a team that went on to play in the National Championship game after beating Georgia. That matters, even if humans only see a "loss" on the schedule. And because SC is being "underrated" early on, it could impact their probability of making the College Football Playoff. Especially if say, they finish 10-2 and are compared to another 10-2 team that benefited from the preseason poll. Yes, the Trojans beat up on an overmatched Missouri State, but 73-13 means something, even if it's against an extremely bad team.
Perception is all too often reality, and perceptions are heavily influenced by inaccurate preseason polls.