Is It Already Time For The New York Mets To Worry About Juan Soto?

Juan Soto signed the largest contract in the history of professional baseball this past offseason. 15 years, $765 million guaranteed from the New York Mets, with the potential to exceed $800 million if he reaches certain incentives. It wasn't that long ago that an entire Major League Baseball franchise could be purchased for $800 million. 

In fact, the Texas Rangers, who play in the Dallas metro area, one of the country's largest markets, sold for just $593 million in 2010. The Chicago Cubs sold for $900 million in 2009. When you sign a contract the size of Soto's, it's inevitably going to lead to exceptionally high expectations.

And with the season a third of the way completed, he's fallen far short of those expectations. Really, REALLY far short of expectations. So it's worth asking: How soon is too soon for Mets fans to panic about the team's most important and expensive player?

BOSTON, MA - MAY 19: Juan Soto #22 of the New York Mets prepares to bat during the game between the New York Mets and the Boston Red Sox at Fenway Park on Monday, May 19, 2025 in Boston, Massachusetts. (Photo by Natalie Reid/MLB Photos via Getty Images)

Juan Soto Hasn't Been Himself So Far In Queens

Through 53 games played thus far in 2025, Soto hasn't been anywhere close to the player he was across town in the Bronx. In 2024, he hit 41 home runs and had a .288/.419/.569 with the Yankees, good for 180 weighted runs created plus (wRC+), 80% better than league average. He was worth over 61 runs above average offensively, and even his traditionally poor defense marginally improved. The combination led to an incredible 8.1 win season, per Fangraphs.

This year? Not so much.

He's hit eight homers, putting him on pace for just 24 over a full season. His batting line has dipped to .233/.361/.409, an OPS of .770, with a WRC+ of "just" 120. After an 8.1 win season, this year he's been worth just 0.8, thanks to another decline in his defensive metrics and only 6.1 runs of offensive production thus far. His weighted on-base average (wOBA) is .340, well below his career line of .400.

Essentially, there isn't a statistic that Soto has improved on his 2024 line with the Yankees. Unless you're excited about his seven stolen bases, matching his full-season total last year.

Time to panic, right? 

Well, yes, but only a little. 

There's no ignoring that his numbers have dipped, and even if some of his underperformance is small sample, it's not all of it. But, thankfully, we have more than just surface-level stats these days, and by quality of contact, Soto remains a similar hitter as he was in 2024.

While his weighted on-base average is .340, his expected wOBA is .425. Last year it was .462, the year before, it was .408. His expected batting average is .297, compared to the actual .233. It's the same story with slugging percentage; the expected slugging is .597, compared to the .409 actual. Quite a bit of the bad start in 2025 is bad luck. 

He's not swinging at bad pitches; his chase rate remains in the 100th percentile. Average exit velocity remains in the 96th percentile at 93.7, he hits the ball hard 55.7% of the time, which is in the 95th percentile. 

So far, so good; Soto is still an elite hitter who's simply not getting the results he deserves from the quality of contact he's putting out.

It's not all good though. Despite the exceptional percentile rankings, there are several stats that show Soto has in fact declined from 2024. Albeit slightly.

Perhaps the most concerning is his bat speed; in 2024 he averaged 75.4mph per swing, in the 94th percentile. This year? That's fallen to 73.3mph, in the 73rd percentile. Soto's still making quality contact, but seeing bat speed fall over two miles an hour is legitimately concerning. 

His hard-hit rate in 2025 was also higher; 57% compared to 55.7%. And the slower bat speed might be contributing to fewer "barrels." In 2024 he was 99th percentile with a 20% barrel rate. This year that's fallen to 14%, which is 85th percentile. The average exit velocity at 93.7mph is also down from 94.2 in 2024. 

He's still an exceptional hitter, but there are signs of very real concerns over a potential decline in his underlying data, at least for someone who's just supposed to be reaching his physical peak at age 26. 

Oh, and his fielding has taken another nose dive too.

His range, never a strong suit, has gone from 13th percentile to 5th percentile. He's been league average, 42nd percentile, with his arm value, compared to 90th percentile in 2024. And he's slowed down while running. A lot.

In 2024, his sprint speed ranked in the 36th percentile at 26.8 feet per second. This year that's down to 25.8 feet per second and just the 17th percentile. Either he's gotten significantly slower, or puts in less effort while running.

Put it all together, and you have a complicated picture. There's no sugarcoating that Soto currently ranks 93rd in baseball in WAR, per Fangraphs, behind players like Miguel Vargas from the White Sox who's making $770,000 this year. Soto makes that in two and a half games.

There are also legitimate reasons to be concerned; his bat speed, sprint speed, and some quality of contact metrics have clearly declined. But he's also suffered from abnormally poor luck, and most of his underlying stats remain at an elite level. It's not necessarily time to panic, but it is worth asking why a 26-year-old who plays one of the least demanding positions has seen his bat speed and sprint speed fall off this much. 

Still, there's positive regression coming for Soto, and the Mets have already jumped out to a 33-21 record. They might be even better once his luck starts to turn.