Aaron Judge's Home Run Record Could Fall This Year, To The...Mariners Catcher?

It was just a few years ago, in the 2022 season, that Aaron Judge set the American League home run record for the New York Yankees. 

Judge hit 62 home runs, breaking Roger Maris' long-standing record of 61 in a season. And with the 2025 season nearly halfway over, somehow, someone is already on pace to break Judge's record. The…catcher for the Seattle Mariners? 

Ever heard of Cal Raleigh? Maybe you've heard of his nickname, "Big Dumper."

Well, through 64 games in 2025, Raleigh has already launched 26 home runs, despite playing half his games in one of Major League Baseball's best pitchers' parks. That puts him on pace to hit 64 over the rest of the season, getting past Judge's 2022 AL record. 

What in the world?

ANAHEIM, Calif. - Seattle Mariners catcher Cal Raleigh hits a three-run home run in the first inning against the Los Angeles Angels at Angel Stadium on June 7, 2025. Photo: Kirby Lee-Imagn Images

Cal Raleigh On Fire For Seattle Mariners

How is this happening? Cal Raleigh?

Raleigh's always flown under the radar as a power hitter, mostly because the Mariners play on the West Coast, well after most East Coast-based media have gone to sleep. He's on a mostly anonymous team, which has made just one postseason appearance since 2001.

In 2022-2024 though, Raleigh hit 27, 30, and 34 home runs respectively. That's impressive production in a down offensive era regardless of position. But as someone who primarily plays catcher, the most demanding place to play on the diamond, it's remarkable. 

Still, in 2025, he's taken it to a whole new level. 

Raleigh's Statcast page is covered in red; 95th percentile expected weighted on base average, 98th percentile expected slugging percentage. 90th percentile average exit velocity, 99th percentile barrel percentage. 85th percentile hard hit percentage. Top three percent in expected weighted on base when making contact.

How's he doing it? He's pulling the ball in the air…a lot.

Most hitters pull the ball, but Raleigh's pulling the ball and getting it in the air a remarkable 39.3 percent of the time. Hit the ball consistently hard, in the air, to the pull side, good things are going to happen. For some perspective, that 39.3 percent rate is first in MLB by nearly five percent. Rhys Hoskins is second at 34.7 percent. 

Shohei Ohtani? Just 21.7 percent. Aaron Judge, just 15.8 percent. 

Pulling the ball in the air isn't the only determinant of power, you have to hit it hard too, but that's where Raleigh's excelled. He's doing both. 

Is it likely that Raleigh breaks Judge's record? No, of course not. It's incredibly hard to maintain this pace, especially as a catcher. But he also deserves more attention than he's getting for his amazing season. And who knows, maybe we'll see history twice in a few seasons.