Aaron Judge Is Simply Breaking Baseball
Aaron Judge is on a completely different level from anyone in Major League Baseball right now. In fact, he's on a completely different level than basically anyone who's ever played the sport. Ever.
It's May 1, and Judge is hitting .427. That's not a misprint, he's hitting .427 through 140 plate appearances, roughly 20 percent through the season. That'd be impressive for a contact hitter, someone like Luis Arraez who sacrifices power for fewer strikeouts and more singles.
Except Judge also has a .761 slugging percentage and is tied for the major league lead with 10 home runs. Even that doesn't fully explain just how absurd Judge's first month of the season has been.
NEW YORK - New York Yankees right fielder Aaron Judge (99) celebrates his solo home run during the sixth inning with teammates against the Toronto Blue Jays at Yankee Stadium on April 27, 2025. Photo: Vincent Carchietta-Imagn Images
Aaron Judge Is Dominating Baseball In An Unprecedented Way
Per Fangraphs, Judge has accumulated 3.2 wins above replacement for the Yankees as of May 1. That's one of the highest figures in an opening month since Fangraphs started tracking statistics. He's not just contributing on offense either.
Judge has also played above-average defense in the outfield too, to go along with 24.5 runs above average on offense. Again, this is in one month.
For some perspective, Judge's 24.5 runs above average would have put him 22nd in Major League Baseball. For the entire 2024 season. He's done it in one month.
His underlying statistics are just as exceptional.
Per Baseball Savant, he's 100th percentile in batting run value. He's 100th percentile in expected weighted on base average. 99th percentile in expected batting average. 100th percentile in expected slugging percentage. 99th in average exit velocity. 100th in barrel percentage. 96th in hard hit percentage.
He's also not chasing pitches, ranking in the 92nd percentile in chase percentage.
We've basically never seen anything like this.
In an era in which offense is harder to come by than almost ever before, Judge is breaking the sport. Yes, it's early to have the "on pace" discussion, but Judge's on pace numbers are absurd.
Per Fangraphs, he's on pace for 16.7 WAR, which would be the highest in baseball history. On top of that .427 batting average, which would be the first over .400 since Ted Williams in 1941, he'd hit 52 home runs, 152 runs, 167 runs batted in and 16 steals. Oh, and a 262 weighted runs created plus, where 100 is league average. He'd be 162% better than your league average hitter.
Judge is already the reigning MVP and an odds-on favorite to repeat this year. And he's somehow underappreciated for the success he's having. It's early, but we could be watching the best season in baseball history.