Geoff Clark
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The first night of the NFL Draft 2023 on Thursday has the potential for mayhem. If the Houston Texans pass on a quarterback at No. 2, we could be in for a crazy opening night of the draft.
2023 NFL DRAFT: BET BENGALS TO DRAFT TIGHT END AND MORE CAN’T-MISS WAGERS BASED ON TEAM NEEDS
To be honest, I would go light on any NFL Draft 2023 wagers. In previous seasons, I had bigger convictions on how the draft would play out but 2023 is too much of a crapshoot.
1st Round NFL Draft 2023 Bets
- Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook.
Total Quarterbacks Drafted in the 1st Round
- Over 4.5 (-155)
- UNDER 4.5 (+125)
The Over for this market relies solely on one player: Tennessee QB Hendon Hooker. According to NFLMockDraftDatabase.com, Hooker is 37th on the consensus NFL draft big board, which aggregates 163 big boards and thousands of mock drafts.
The main reason why I like Hooker to slip past the 1st round is his ability or lack thereof in going through his progressions. That concern was given credence when Hooker’s S2 Cognition test results were leaked.
For the record, I like Hooker. I bet him to win the 2023 Heisman Trophy in his final season at Tennessee. Hooker was the favorite for a majority of the season after making the Volunteers a legit CFP contender.
Hooker lost the Heisman for the same reason why I think he won’t be drafted on the 1st night: Health concerns. His college career ended with a non-contact ACL tear vs. South Carolina in November 2022.
The best argument for Hooker falling out of the 1st round is from colleague Dan Zaksheske. He theorized the LA Rams trading into the 1st round to draft Hooker at No. 28 overall.
Current Rams QB Matthew Stafford is a crazy injury history and doesn’t have many years left in his NFL career. Hooker can rehab from his injury and learn under Stafford and Rams coach Sean McVay.
However, the betting market could be picking up intel that Hooker won’t be in the 1st round. When I started writing this post, the UNDER 4.5 for this market was priced at +175.
After an hour of writing, the odds fell to +125. Let’s follow the steam and bet UNDER 4.5 “total QBs drafted in the first round” at a plus-payout while we still can.
Total Wide Receivers Drafted in the 1st Round
- OVER 3.5 (-125)
- Under 3.5 (-105)
There have been at least five wide receivers selected in the 1st round of the last three NFL Drafts. Six WRs in the 2022 NFL Draft’s 1st round, five in 2021 and six again in 2020.
According to NFLMockDraftDatabase.com, there are four wide receivers in the 2023 NFL Draft with a 1st-round grade in the consensus big boards.
These include Ohio State’s Jaxon Smith-Njigba, TCU’s Quentin Johnson, USC’s Jordan Addison, and Boston College’s Zay Flowers.
The 5th WR on the aggregated NFL draft big board is Tennessee’s Jalin Hyatt. Many draft analysts predict Hyatt will to go to the New York Giants in the 1st round.
Also, the last two NFL Rookies of the Year were receivers: Bengals WR Ja’Marr Chase and Jets WR Garrett Wilson. Chase is Cincy QB Joe Burrow’s favorite weapon and a big reason for the Bengals’ 2022 Super Bowl appearance.
Wilson’s rookie campaign certainly played a role in Aaron Rodgers forcing his way to New York. Wide-out is now a premier position in football. I could see at least four NFL front offices talking themselves into drafting hopeful No. 1 WR.
Georgia TE Darnell Washington as a 1st-round pick in the 2023 NFL Draft (+105)
Keep this between us but I found a pricing error at DraftKings with Washington’s odds to be off the board after Thursday. DraftKings has the Over (2) for “Total Tight Ends Drafted in the First Round” as at -300 and the Under (2) at +225.
But, Washington is clearly the 3rd-best tight end in this draft. According to the NFL’s Next Gen Stats, Washington is the 2nd-best tight end in the 2023 NFL Draft.
It’s almost a lock that Utah TE Dalton Kincaid and Notre Dame TE Michael Mayer are off the board Thursday. Washington is a better run blocker than Kincaid and Mayer and the best athlete at the position.
Washington also has much better odds to be a 1st-round draft pick than Iowa TE Sam LaPorta (+350) and Ohio State TE Luke Musgrave (+650). Neither LaPorta nor Musgrave have odds to go in the top-10. Washington is at least on the board for that market at +15000.
He was a five-star recruit coming out of high school. We’ve seen five-star high school recruits taken despite mediocre college stats (looking at you Jadeveon Clowney).
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