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There are several overreactions from Week 1 to fade when the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (1-0) visit the New Orleans Saints (1-0) Sunday at the Caesars Superdome.
The Bucs beat up on a hapless, and now-injured, Dallas Cowboys 19-3, covering as 2.5-point road favorites on Sunday Night Football in Week 1. Tampa’s defense obliterated Dallas on primetime and the Bucs made bettors happy Sunday.
New Orleans, on the other hand, underperformed expectations by eking past the Falcons 27-26 in Atlanta Sunday. The Saints needed a game-winning 51-yard field goal to beat a Falcons team they were 5.5-point road favorites against pre-flop.
The takeaway by the market is Tampa looks like the NFC favorite by beating up a division-winning team on primetime while NOLA could be in trouble in the post-Sean Payton era. So the Bucs should cruise past the Saints in Week 2, right?
Betting Deets (PointsBet Sportsbook)
- Moneyline (ML): Buccaneers (-145), SAINTS (+125)
- Against the spread (ATS): Buccaneers -2.5 (-107), SAINTS +2.5 (-107)
- Total (O/U) — 44.5 — O: -107, U: -107
First of all, NOLA has owned Tampa since Bucs QB Tom Brady joined the team in 2020. The Saints are 4-0 straight up (SU) and ATS vs. the Bucs in the regular season with a +19.8 ATS margin. NOLA is winning those games by 16 points on average (29.2-13.2).
Not only that but this Tampa team is banged-up and not as good as previous versions.
The Bucs’ top three wide receivers didn’t practice this week (Mike Evans, Julio Jones and Chris Godwin). Also, former Bucs TE Rob Gronkowski‘s retirement left a hole in the offense. Gronk was an elite blocker and Brady’s best safety blanket.
Furthermore, these Tampa injuries give me confidence NOLA’s defense can have a bounce-back game after a disappointing Week 1. Atlanta has some talent playmakers between TE Kyle Pitts and RB Cordarrelle Patterson. Falcons QB Marcus Mariota brings a running dynamic that Brady doesn’t have.
Also, Buccaneers-Saints is shaping into a Pros vs. Joe’s game in the betting market. According to Pregame.com, more than three-fourths of the money is on the Saints whereas roughly 60% of the bets placed are on the Bucs.
Since professional bettors wager a lot more dough than you or I, typically you want to follow the cash column of the betting splits. Especially when it’s counter to the public’s action. Oddsmakers have reacted to the sharp money by making the Bucs cheaper.
Holding Stock In Saints QB Jameis Winston
I’m unironically a Jameis Winston fan. He played like crap in the first half of NOLA’s victory over Atlanta in Week 1. But, Winston rallied to finish that game 23-of-34 with 269 passing yards, two TDs, zero INTs and a 111.0 QB Rating.
In addition, Winston had the second-best completion percentage over expectation in Week 1 behind Buffalo Bills QB Josh Allen, per the NFL’s Next Gen Stats.
Let’s not forget that Winston is working with a whole new WR corp in 2022. None of the Saints’ WRs (Michael Thomas, Jarvis Landry and Chris Olave) played in NOLA last season. Despite this, Winston was on-track for his best season in 2021. Winston had career bests in TD% and INT%.
Go to PointsBet Sportsbook and BET the SAINTS +2.5 (-107) with a SPRINKLE on the SAINTS (+125) to upset the Bucs at home.
- A $107 wager on the Saints +2.5 (-107) returns a $100 profit if they win or lose by 1 or 2 points.
- A $33 “sprinkle” on the Saints (+125) returns a $41.25 profit if NOLA upsets Tampa.
Don’t @ Me: CFB Week 3 & NFL Week 2 Bets With Geoff Clark
Nebraska +12.5 vs Oklahoma
Saints +2.5 vs Brady and the Bucs
Eagles -2 vs Vikings
Texas A&M -6 vs Miami
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One CommentLeave a Reply
‘Bet against tom Brady’…always solid advice.