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The Texas Rangers (62-81) roll into Tropicana Field on Friday to start a three-game set with the Tampa Bay Rays (80-63) and the Rangers’ moneyline (ML) feels too good to be true.
And it is.
Texas starting LHP Martin Perez (11-6, 2.77 ERA) is having a career year and made his first All-Star Game this summer. Perez threw seven shutout innings in a win over the Rays in late May and has five quality starts in his last six outings. Yet the Rangers are +135 at DraftKings Sportsbook.
Tampa starting RHP Corey Kluber (10-8, 4.36 ERA) has struggled to stay healthy in recent years and didn’t make it out of the first inning in his previous start vs. the New York Yankees (6 ER on 8 H in 2/3 IP with 0 K and 0 BB).
Go to DraftKings Sportsbook and BET the TAMPA BAY RAYS (-155).
‘Sharps’ Like Kluber & The Rays
Tampa’s moneyline (ML) has gone from -135 on the opener up to the current number, according to Pregame.com. Granted, most of the Rangers-Rays betting market is on Tampa.
But, average Joe’s aren’t betting the Tampa Bay Rays on a Friday in football season. That’s sharp money. The line movement feels sharper because of how bad Kluber looked in his last start. Furthermore, this is a good spot to spend a little extra on Kluber and the Rays.
For instance, Tampa is 8-3 as home favorites when Kluber starts, with a +17.8% return on investment (ROI) and 5.91-3.36 final margin. The Rays are 4-0 in Kluber outings when the total is listed at 7 or lower. The total for Friday’s Rangers-Rays meeting is 7.
Finally, Tampa’s lineup is more productive vs. lefties than Texas against righties. The Rays outrank the Rangers in wRC+ (107-95), wOBA (.310-.300) and BB/K rate (0.37-0.31), according to FanGraphs.
BET TAMPA BAY RAYS (-155) at DraftKings Sportsbook. I’d bet Tampa’s ML all the way up to -165 because the Rays are 18-11 as home favorites of -165 or less this season.
- A $155 bet on the Rays (-155) returns a $100 profit if Tampa wins outright.
Listen to the ‘OutKick Bets with Geoff Clark’ podcast HERE.
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