Week 4 NFL is stacked with amazing games. The co-main event will be played at M&T Bank Stadium Sunday when the Baltimore Ravens (2-1) host the Buffalo Bills (2-1).
Baltimore blew past the New England Patriots 37-26 Sunday, outscoring them 23-13 in the second half. Ravens QB Lamar Jackson put in cheat codes and scored five TDs vs. a helpless New England defense.
Not even a “butt punt” could save Buffalo from losing 21-19 at the Miami Dolphins in Week 3. The Bills lost to the Dolphins despite possessing the ball 20 minutes longer and outgaining them 497-212. Come to think about it, how did Buffalo lose to Miami Sunday?
Betting Details (DraftKings)
- Moneyline: Ravens (+135), Bills (-155)
- Against the spread (ATS): RAVENS +3 (-110), Bills -3 (-110)
- Total (O/U) — 51 — O: -110, U: -110
Lamar has money on his mind
Jackson is pulling an Aaron Judge and betting himself while negotiating a contract extension. Like Judge, Lamar is ballin’ out.
Granted, it’s still early but Jackson is second in QBR ahead of Buffalo Bills QB Josh Allen. Lamar has the second-best odds to win the 2022 NFL MVP (+550) at DraftKings, behind Allen.
Jackson is airing it out as well, averaging the second-most air yards per pass attempt. People said Baltimore’s passing attack would take a step back after trading former WR Marquise Brown this offseason.
But, Baltimore’s gamble that second-year WR Rashod Bateman would take a step forward has paid off. Partially because defenses aren’t paying enough respect to Lamar’s deep ball.
Also, Buffalo’s secondary has cluster injuries including shutdown CB Tre’Davious White and S Micah Hyde who will definitely miss Week 4. The Bills were without a couple of other defensive backs in Week 3, most notably Pro Bowl S Jordan Poyer.
The absence of Buffalo’s safeties may be too big for the Bills to overcome. Ravens TE Mark Andrews is the best player in his position thus far. Lamar-Andrews have a Brady-Gronk thing going right now.
Essentially, Lamar has enough weapons to help him get paid this offseason.
Ravens-Bills is a ‘Pros vs. Joe’s’ game in the betting market
The cash column in the betting splits represents the sharp side since professional bettors wager a lot more dough than the public. Let’s follow the money flowing slightly towards Baltimore.
The Ravens have a sneaky good home-field advantage
Baltimore is 4-0 ATS as home underdogs since Lamar became the starter in 2019. The Ravens have a +9.6 ATS margin in those spots.
In fact, one of those ATS wins came against the Green Bay Packers last season when second-string QB Tyler Huntley started for an injured Lamar.
Possible rainy, windy conditions better suits Baltimore
Bills-Ravens could be a bad weather game. The weather forecast says there’s a 60% chance of rain and winds will blow 10+ mph.
Bad weather favors Baltimore in this spot because Buffalo has a one-dimensional offense. Buffalo has the worst schedule-adjusted (DVOA) rushing efficiency, according to Football Outsiders.
The Bills’ offensive line isn’t good enough to hold up against the Ravens in the trenches if the weather is a factor. Buffalo’s offensive line ranks 25th in ESPN’s pass-blocking win rate and dead-last in run-blocking win rate.
We saw an advanced New England game-script ground Buffalo’s attack in a bad weather game in Week 13 last season. The Bills lost that game vs. the Patriots 14-10 at home. Baltimore should study New England’s strategy when scheming for Buffalo this Sunday.
Baltimore’s special teams are nasty
Ravens head coach John Harbaugh earned his coaching stripes as a special teams coordinator. This is part of the reason Baltimore’s special teams consistently grade high. The other part is Ravens PK Justin Tucker is the G.O.A.T.
Per Football Outsiders, Baltimore ranks first in special teams DVOA, with a bullet. The Ravens’ +12.4% special teams DVOA is 7.2% higher than the next closest team.
Again, if the weather is a factor, give me the team with the better special teams. This is the cherry on Baltimore’s ATS handicap.
Go to DraftKings Sportsbook and BET the BALTIMORE RAVENS +3 (-110) for 1 unit.
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