QBs Justin Fields, Trey Lance And The Battle For Confidence
Can the San Francisco 49ers thread an incredibly small needle with Trey Lance?
Or will the Chicago Bears and Justin Fields become a wrench that bends that needle into something unrecognizable?
As the 49ers and Bears open their NFL seasons Sunday, the meeting of Lance and fellow 2021 first-round pick Justin Fields of the Bears creates a fascinating subplot. Is Lance the quarterback San Francisco predicted when it gave up three first-round picks and a third rounder to move up to the No. 3 selection? Or is Fields, the guy Chicago waited patiently to draft at No. 11, the better player the way Patrick Mahomes (No. 10 overall) turned out to be better than Mitchell Trubisky (No. 2) from the 2017 draft?
CHICAGO, ILLINOIS - OCTOBER 03: Quarterback Justin Fields #1 of the Chicago Bears passes the ball against the Detroit Lions in the second half at Soldier Field on October 03, 2021 in Chicago, Illinois. (Photo by Jonathan Daniel/Getty Images)
If Fields and the Bears somehow outplay or even upset the heavily favored 49ers, how does that play with Lance’s confidence? More importantly, how does it play with the confidence of Lance’s teammates who can turn around to see Jimmy Garoppolo on the bench?
Or as one member of the 49ers admitted over the weekend, this opener is filled with landmines. The 49ers are a 7 ½-point favorite, which is rare for a road team in a season opener.
“A lot of people think we’re going to win this game easily, and we could if our defense dominates. But if you think it’s because we’re going to score 27, 28, maybe 30 points on offense, I don’t see it. This sets up like a low-scoring game where we don’t ask the offense to do much besides control the ball and don’t make mistakes,” the staffer said.
By that, do you mean, don’t ask too much from the quarterback?
“Yeah, pretty much,” he said.
Within the gigantic goal of trying to win a Super Bowl, the 49ers are trying to do something almost as difficult: Develop Lance into a franchise quarterback. Moreover, they are trying to develop a quarterback who essentially has only one year of lower-level college experience and they didn’t pay that price last year just to get marginal upgrade over Garoppolo.
SANTA CLARA, CALIFORNIA - AUGUST 29: Jimmy Garoppolo #10 and Trey Lance #5 of the San Francisco 49ers talk to each other on the sidelines before their preseason game against the Las Vegas Raiders at Levi's Stadium on August 29, 2021 in Santa Clara, California. (Photo by Ezra Shaw/Getty Images)
They paid for the second-coming of Mahomes and that expectation is known to everyone, including Lance.
While Lance flashed talent as a rookie in limited action, he has also had just as many issues. His inaccuracy in both games and practices has been apparent. Even when he throws a pass that’s catchable, it’s often in the wrong spot. Receivers either must stop running or dive to get the ball instead of catching it on the run for bigger gains. Throws to receivers cutting to the outside are too far inside, leaving them susceptible to being intercepted and returned for defensive touchdowns. Some throws into the middle are too high, meaning they can get tipped for interceptions or too low when intended for the backline of the end zone.
This is on top of the fact that the pro game sometimes just moves too fast right now for Lance, whose toughest college opponents were South Dakota, James Madison, Butler and South Illinois when he last played regularly … in 2019.
There are moments when Lance simply misses reads or gets so distracted by what’s around him that his eye level drops and he can’t see downfield, a factor that was the quick undoing of Paxton Lynch in Denver.
Lance, and Fields, has work to do and a lot of mistakes to make along the way toward becoming a great player.
While Lance could be a quick learner like Dan Marino, Tom Brady or Ben Roethlisberger, who each walked into good teams and helped make them serious contenders, there are a lot of doubts. In a season when a title seems in sight, that may not be acceptable.
And there may be even more doubts after Sunday depending upon how Fields does in the more traditional plan of growing along with a young team. Like Lance, Fields came into the NFL with his own set of deficiencies. He came out of an Ohio State program that runs an offense devised by Urban Meyer. That system doesn’t translate well to the NFL and is largely dependent on having better talent than the opponent.
PASADENA, CA - JANUARY 01: Ohio State Buckeyes head coach Urban Meyer and Rashod Berry #13 of the Ohio State Buckeyes look on from the sideline during the first half in the Rose Bowl Game presented by Northwestern Mutual at the Rose Bowl on January 1, 2019 in Pasadena, California. (Photo by Sean M. Haffey/Getty Images)
Meyer didn’t even use the system in his one aborted year in the NFL and the only quarterback in the past 20 years to play in that system and have a good NFL career was Alex Smith. Like Fields, quarterbacks like Tim Tebow, Cardale Jones and J.T. Barrett all came out of playing in that system without the ability to read complex defenses.
Last season, Fields struggled going through progressions and recognizing where defenders would be. That was on top of the fact that he was surrounded by mediocre talent. This year in the preseason, Fields did a better job of seeing the field and going through progressions, but the talent issue still exists.
The advantage Fields has is that his mistakes can be tolerated. The Bears enter this season with a new head coach and general manager and a fan base that simply hopes Fields can become a franchise quarterback someday.
The 49ers, who have appeared in a Super Bowl and an NFC Championship Game in two of the past three seasons with Garoppolo at the helm, and their fans are expecting far more from Lance. So are their players.
Lance and head coach Kyle Shanahan know that as well.