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I covered the NFC and AFC specifically for some value bets, now I’m going to take a quick glance at how we should play the Super Bowl props that are out already. There aren’t a ton of options available, but we will focus in on a few teams with some opportunities for us to examine for plus money odds of even just getting to the game.
I don’t know that I have a great feel for who will win the Super Bowl. I think the Chiefs are the safest bet, but I think the 49ers give me the most confidence of any team just to get to the Super Bowl. The Bills at +400 might be worth a shot but they will need to beat Cincinnati and Kansas City to get there. Kansas City has the edge of just needing to beat either Buffalo or Cincinnati. If I picked a longshot, I’ll take the Buccaneers for the obvious reason of not betting against Brady in the playoffs at +2800. I won’t likely put that on there, but if you’re asking that’s what I’d respond with.
Moving to the To Make the Super Bowl bets, we see the Chiefs vs. Eagles as the top option of +650. I personally don’t think the Eagles make it. If you do, you can follow my same process for them, but I’m going to essentially eliminate everyone from the NFC aside from the 49ers. They are the team that I think makes the Super Bowl from the NFC. So, first, I’ll grab them at +500 to win the Super Bowl, because if they make the game, I’ll be able to hedge. Looking at the options for opponents, I’ve narrowed it down (not exactly a surprise here) to the Chiefs, Bengals, Bills, and maybe Chargers. A rematch of Kansas City is at +700, against the Bills is +800, and against the Bengals is +1600. In my opinion, the Chiefs are the best option here because they likely will only have to win one game against a really tough opponent to get back to the Super Bowl again. Is 7:1 worth it? I think it is fair value, but not great. For the Bills to make it to the Super Bowl, they need to get past the Bengals and Chiefs. One of the two will be eliminated next week and I honestly am not sure who to take yet.
If you’re going to play the Eagles in anything, I’d probably take them as an option to lose the Super Bowl at an exact result of whichever AFC team you like best. For example, if you like the Chiefs, take them to beat the Eagles at +1300. I think the AFC does win the Super Bowl, but they are also going to have to beat the hell out of each other just to get there, so there is a chance they are exhausted and the NFC can steal it after having what seems like an easier slate. It may be square, but I like the Bills to beat the 49ers as the best bet. I think this is just Buffalo’s year – they can use the Hamlin motivation now, they were the favorite to start, and more – and them taking down the 49ers seems realistic also at +1300. I’d probably actually play this one, but that’s more of a reflection that I think the 49ers make it to the Super Bowl. If you think it is those two teams, the Bills and 49ers, you can also bet the 49ers to beat the Bills now at +2000.
The one team that I do think can make it to the Super Bowl again is the Bengals and I don’t have anything on them right now. You could take them at +450 to win the AFC. I personally don’t see them beating both Buffalo and Kansas City.
I think one of my favorite Eagles bets would be to lose in the Super Bowl at +330. Maybe I’m a fool and they are better than I think, I just don’t expect them to win it. If they get to the Super Bowl, I’d imagine they won’t be a favorite, but I also don’t think I’d get the Bills, Chiefs, or Bengals at +330 to win the game. You could do the same with the 49ers at +475 and use the same logic.
Here’s how I would play it:
KC vs. SF +700 (.5u)
Buf beats SF +1300 (.25u)
SF beats Buf +2000 (.25u)
Eagles to lose in Super Bowl +330 (.5u)
49ers to lose in Super Bowl +475 (.5u)
Of course, it should be noted that all of these plays could be complete losers and blow up. In full disclosure, they are fairly chalky picks. On the AFC side, I only see three real contenders and a fourth fringe. On the NFC, outside of Philly and San Fran, I don’t buy anyone with the exception of maybe Tom Brady finding some sort of magic and getting back there.
For more sports betting information and plays, follow David on Twitter: @futureprez2024