The Maryland Terrapins (4-1, 1-1 in Big Ten) host the Purdue Boilermakers (3-2, 1-1 in Big Ten) Saturday for a conference showdown at SECU Stadium.
Purdue rallied with a 10-point 4th quarter to upset an undefeated Minnesota Golden Gophers last week 20-10 as 9-point road underdogs.
Maryland bounced back from a 1-score loss at the Michigan Wolverines Sept. 24 to club the Michigan State Spartans 27-13, covering as 7.5-point home favorites.
Take the points with the PURDUE BOILERMAKERS +3 (-110) at DraftKings Sportsbook while they are still at a key number. That said, the wrong team is favored here and I’d play Purdue all the way up to -1.5 vs. Maryland.
Betting Details (DraftKings)
- Moneyline: Purdue (+125), Maryland (-145)
- Against the spread (ATS): PURDUE +3 (-110), Maryland -3 (-110)
- Total (O/U) — 59 — O: -110, U: -110
BET: Purdue +3
I love Purdue here because everyone is backing an overrated Maryland team. According to VSIN, more than three-fourths of the action is on Maryland at the time of publishing.
Maryland opened as 3-point favorites and this line hasn’t moved despite the lopsided pro-Terrapins action. It’s almost like the oddsmakers are begging for more Maryland money.
We are getting a good price on Purdue because it eked past the Florida Atlantic Owls Sept. 24 and lost to the Syracuse Orange the week prior. While Maryland kept it close with Michigan and destroyed Michigan State last week.
But, Purdue QB Aidan O’Connell missed the Florida Atlantic game with an injury and Syracuse looks legit this season.
Purdue has a higher net expected points added per play (0.349-0.224 EPA/play), success rate (23.6-7.9%) and Havoc rate (7.3-4.3%). The Boilermakers lead the country in defensive EPA/play and are 10th in defensive success rate.
Their passing numbers look so good because three of the Terrapins’ five opponents rank outside the top 100 in defensive passing efficiency. Purdue is 24th in pass defense EPA/play and can make Maryland’s offense one-dimensional.
Maryland’s offensive line is 79th in line yards per snap while Purdue’s defense is 16th in line yards per snap allowed and 4th in rushing EPA/play. If the Terrapins are struggling with bad defensive lines, how will they fare against the Boilermakers?
Finally, this is just a better spot for Purdue. Maryland is 7-17-1 ATS vs. Big Ten teams with a -7.2 ATS margin since coach Mike Locksley took over the program in 2019. Whereas Purdue is 14-8 ATS as underdogs in conference play with a +6.8 ATS margin in coach Jeff Brohm’s tenure (est. 2017).
Go to DraftKings Sportsbook and PURDUE BOILERMAKERS +3 (-110).
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