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The NFL continues to dodge the COVID bullets. The Raiders will have their O-line back (minus Trent Brown) as we expected and the smart bettor will have taken advantage of the information at www.profootballdoc.com before the line moves on this news.
Teams have to learn to keep position groups apart to avoid the “high risk” designation wiping out a position group like almost happened to the Raiders O line and will happen to the majority of the tight ends for the Bills.
Thru the first six weeks our five weekly picks based on the hidden value of analyzing team injuries has gone 22-7-1 and we hope to continue. Each week’s picks are documented here.
Let’s see if the hidden injury advantages can keep the six-week win streak rolling.
Dallas and Washington with healthy defenses
The Cowboys return two defensive starters (LB Sean Lee and CB Chidobe Awuzie) and the Washington defense remains healthy. Andy Dalton doesn’t have the mobility to make the same magic as Dak Prescott did behind a banged-up Dallas O-line. Kyle Allen and his lack of WRs look to struggle against a newly healthy Cowboys defense. The total opened at 49 and the smart bettor would have snagged that but in keeping with our rules here of using lines at time of posting, we will hope for under the current 45.5 for our score keeping purposes here.
Packers in for a tough bounce back week
Conventional wisdom would have faith in an Aaron Rodgers team bouncing back coming off a 38-10 thrashing but the injuries on both sides of the ball may give the Texans the ability to keep things close. This week, Green Bay will be without five starters (2 on offense and 3 on defense). We said Aaron Jones was unlikely to play despite being a “game-time decision” and left tackle David Bahktiari didn’t travel to Houston and is declared out. DE Tyler Lancaster, FS Darnell Savage and CB Kevin King are all expected to miss as well. The Texans are the healthier side and get 3.5 points playing at home.
Shootout for the two QBs named Matt
Both Matt Stafford and Matt Ryan will lead mostly healthy offenses against defenses with some injury issues. The Falcons secondary issues have been well documented this season. The Lions will be without top corner Desmond Trufant against a top wide receiving corps. The team with the ball last may be the winner but it figures to be entertaining.
Jaguars have a chance
The Chargers carry a relatively poor C+ health grade and are coming off four straight losses, yet are favored by 7.5 points. Yes, the Bolts come off a bye and Melving Ingram is back off IR but they are open to a back door cover even if they dominate the game against Jacksonville, who has lost five straight games. The Chargers should win but they just don’t seem healthy enough to run away from the Jaguars.
Jimmy Garoppolo bowl
Jimmy G returns to play his former team. A wagering decision could be made on the fact that Bill Belichick knows his former pupil but we stick to injuries and team health to make our calls. The 49ers will be without both safeties and a total of five defensive starters out. The four defensive linemen on IR (Nick Bose, Ezekiel Ansah, Dee Ford and Solomon Thomas) would be better than most of the league’s starter lines. Take away the COVID issues (opt out and current COVID list) and the Patriots are actually pretty healthy. The Patriots -2.5 seems the right side of this one but an argument could be made to take the over 44.5 as well.
Outkick readers can go to www.profootballdoc.com to create a free account to see all of the injury advantages for fantasy/DFS/wagering decisions this Sunday as well as the best in game updates.