ProFootballDoc: Top 5 Actionable Injury Issues for NFL Week 13
As the season rolls on, there are more cumulative injuries but the effect of losing a starter from early season also tends to get blunted using our unique injury analysis. A team's health is only one factor in the overall picture and the Field View and Injury Index at www.profootballdoc.com are not touting sides or totals but they can be used to help make fantasy/DFS/wagering decisions.
Using publicly unaccounted for injury information can lead to better lines. Relying just on injury analysis, our five picks for Sunday every week are a +13 at an overall 35-22-3. Imagine if you paired this information with talent, scheme, matchup and other analysis.
Public perception about Lions vs Bears injuries wrong
The attention is on Detroit missing Kenny Golladay and D'Andre Swift with Matthew Stafford still questionable (thumb). The reality is that Chicago is more injury impacted up front where it counts with their offensive line issues and likely to still miss Akeem Hicks who is key. Based on health, the Lions should be laying points but instead are underdogs getting +3 and may even win outright. This does not even factor in the Lions head coaching change that often can provide a temporary bump in motivation.
Both Vikings and Jaguars defenses missing key players
The Vikings are missing a key defensive starter at each level and impacted at the cornerback position. The Jaguars are out over half their defensive starters. Dalvin Cook will play and Adam Thielen is back for the Vikings. Gardner Minshew is a healthy scratch and Mike Glennon is at the helm for the Jaguars who have both top receivers back for the first time in weeks should be able to put up points. Expect a high scoring game and over 51.
Colts can exploit Texans injuries
The public concern is the Colts are missing their left tackle Anthony Castonzo and Philip Rivers has a significant toe injury and will be pressured by J.J. Watt and company. If one looks at the Texans injuries with their top corners out, Rivers (who is immobile anyways) can neutralize this perceived disadvantage and will get the ball out quickly to capitalize. Normally the 7-4 team playing a 4-7 team will have to lay more than three points. Take the Colts -3 here.
Can't trust Eagles O line
The Philly "special" in 2020 has been a different offensive line served up each week. They are injured across the starters and thru their depth. Their defense made a nice return to health but now likely to miss Darius Slay with a calf injury against Davante Adams and Aaron Rodgers seems problematic. It doesn't matter if Doug Pederson or whoever is calling the plays if the execution is not there. This was an early line movers game for us. As the first lines were posted last Sunday, we indicated the Green Bay -7 line would go higher and to get down early. We would love to take Packers -7 now but will stay intellectually honest and lay the now -8.5 points available today.
Chargers offense healthy
The Chargers have their offensive firepower back led by Austin Ekeler, Keenan Allen, Hunter Henry and rookie star Justin Herbert. Joey Bosa should take advantage of offensive line injuries. Although Cam Newton should play, an abdominal issue is likely to slow him down. The Patriots have a number of injury depth issues on top of starting the season short-handed with eight COVID opt outs. The Chargers have only three wins but should prevail here and the 1.5 points should be inconsequential.
The lines used here are available this AM. Look for the Line Movers videos tonight (www.profootballdoc.com) to get the best numbers before they move. Those taking the Seahawks at the opening number of -7.5 as we suggested before Colt McCoy was known to be the starter could now come back with Giants +11 and have a nice free middle play to win both sides with little risk.