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ProFootballDoc: Top 10 Super Bowl Injury-Based Prop Bets

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Part of the Super Bowl fun is all of the prop bets, and we try to use the ProFootballDoc.com injury analysis to find prop advantages. Here are the top 10 prop bets, five for each side. Go to www.profootballdoc.com for the full analysis.

The big injury issue for the Chiefs is the shuffle on the offensive line. Left tackle Eric Fisher has an Achilles injury and is out, affecting three spots. Patrick Mahomes’ turf toe should be fine. Expect Clyde Edwards-Helaire to be back near full strength, but for Sammy Watkins to be less than 100% with his calf.

Mahomes over 18.5 rush yards – This is my favorite prop bet. Fans have talked about it all week to the point that FanDuel has it at 21 now. Yes, the Chiefs O-line will be challenged, but Mahomes’ toe is OK. Remember, sacks don’t count against rushing yards, but scrambles do count in the rushing total. Expect Mahomes to be flushed out of the pocket a couple of times, which should lead to the easy over here.

Mahomes over 41.5 passing attempts – A patchwork O-line against a top defensive line forces a QB to get the ball out of his hand more quickly for shorter passes. Shorter passes mean more pass attempts. Remember that shovel passes also count as pass attempts, and expect a couple of those to Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelce.

Helaire over 30.5 rushing yards – I anticipate CEH will be healthy enough to get the bulk of the carries now, which bodes well for the now-depressed rushing props number. Have faith and take advantage.

Kelce over 7.5 catches – I am even tempted at the over 94.5 yards but will stick to the catches. Facing a fierce pass rush and health issues with the Bucs’ safeties, Kelce seems to be primed to be the main target for Mahomes, who will look to get the ball out quickly.

Watkins under 3.5 catches – It seems like Watkins will play, but calf injuries linger and can be reaggravated easily. He has missed so much time recently that I find it hard to believe he will be a main feature. He is also more of a downfield threat, and Mahomes may not have time to throw long to him. I have taken the under on the catches, though under 36.5 yards is tempting too.

The Buccaneers are the healthier side. Antonio Brown should play, but at what percent? Lavonte David and Antoine Winfield Jr. are locks to play, while Jordan Whitehead is the true question mark. He will probably try to play through what we believe is a torn pec that may need surgery.

Tom Brady over 25 completions – The GOAT has always been accurate and has lots of targets for this game. Factor in that he may be chasing a potent Chiefs offense, and I see a high number of completions.

Ronald Jones over 35.5 yards rushing – Medically, I feel Jones should be healthy now and will return as the 1a back. His prop number is lower than Leonard Fournette’s at 48.5, and I think Jones gets more carries on Sunday.

Fournette over 3.5 catches – While I’ve passed on the Fournette rushing yards, I think he will be Brady’s “James White,” a big target out of the backfield who will be the go-to third-down back.

AB under 41.5 receiving yards – Yes, Brown will play, but Brady will have so many targets that Brown will have to share the wealth. Beside Mike Evans, Chris Godwin and Scotty Miller at wide receiver, there is Gronk and Cameron Brate at tight end plus Fournette. I just doubt that a player who joined the team late and has missed a lot of recent practice with injuries gets featured. Even if he is Brady’s “roommate,” Tom will take care of his teammates. I would even take the under 3.5 catches.

Godwin over 5.5 catches – This number is the result of AB missing time and all the attention on Evans. I just have a feeling Godwin will be a big producer.

Good luck with these top 10 props. Go to www.profootballdoc.com, and make your own conclusions. Tomorrow, we will have our ProFootballDoc Super Bowl picks on the side and total using the Injury Index and Field View.

Lastly, new users, don’t forget to take advantage of FanDuel’s incredible 55-to-1 odds boost for Super Bowl LV. Bet $5, win $275! Lock it in here.

Written by Pro Football Doc

David Chao, MD -- known digitally as Pro Football Doc -- is an expert contributor for Outkick. Chao spent 17 seasons as the team doctor for the San Diego Chargers (1997-2013) and is part of the medical team at OASIS in San Diego where he treats and specializes in orthopedic sports injuries, working with high-profile professional athletes from the NFL, NBA, and MLB.

5 Comments

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  1. If you are looking to match your prop bets with a game bet here are some betting trends from the 2020 season.

    Ronald Jones over 35.5 yards rushing
    When he went over on this prop bet the Bucs went 6 -2 ATS for the game.

    Fournette over 3.5 catches
    When he went over on this prop bet the Bucs went 4 -1 ATS for the game.

  2. I like where you went here on the Chiefs side, but I think you are a bit off base on Helaire. I think Helaire will “start”, but Darrell Williams has been the better back this postseason, and he also acts as their 3rd down back. If Williams starts rolling downhill like he did against Cleveland and Buffalo, I think Helaire takes a back seat again for the hot hand. I’m not saying Helaire won’t hit his over, I just like betting Williams instead for even lower overs. My favorite prop for the Chiefs is Darrell anytime TD at +185. Damien Williams scored 7 (I think) TDs last postseason, 5 the postseason before (in 2 games), and both Helaire and Williams scored a TD last week against Buffalo. Reid RBs get TDs in the playoffs. You might even float out a SGP on Fanduel of both Williams and Helaire scoring any time tds …

    • appreciate your weekly input, really good stuff. I like Helaire a lot, but in all honesty, he didn’t really live up to what I figured he would be (at least in year 1), and I ended up missing Damien Williams (so funny how the RB position works, considering Damien was a castoff, undrafted nobody rotting on special teams until Kareem got the boot – no pun). I wanted the Chiefs to draft Antoine Winfield, Jr. … I can’t even imagine how sick KC secondary would be with that guy in the mix. A lot of people are going to be very surprised Sunday watching the amazingly underrated Chiefs secondary against Tom. I predicted the Chiefs to beat Buffalo 38-24 last week on Outkick … this week I am going even higher. Chiefs 37, Bucs 13

      Laugher.

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