Using injury analysis to take advantage of unseen lines continues to prove fruitful once again. We now have a cumulative 31-16-3 record. We could claim another 4-1 week, but we will instead book 3-1-1 to stay academically honest. Detroit’s line went off at -2.5 Sunday AM for a win, but we will book it as a tie because, at time of writing Saturday late night, the line we took was -3 for a push.
The Eagles’ return to health didn’t matter, but the Steelers, Saints and over Bills/Cardinals were all winners. As a bonus, followers of the early line movers info at www.profootballdoc.com got themselves a middle with Browns -2.5 early week and Texans +4 late week. Nick Chubb stepped out of bounds, leaving the game at the key 3 number for a double win.
Tonight’s NFC North rivalry game features a healthy Vikings offense that should put up points. Meanwhile, the Bears offense have three out of five O line starters out, so it’s unclear whether they can take advantage of the injury-riddled Vikings defense. The Field View and Injury Index at www.profootballdoc.com leans towards Minnesota -3 and over 43.5.
Here are the top 10 injury issues coming out of Sunday and the potential line implications they may have for Week 11.
1. Drew Brees – The Saints future HOF QB initially continued to play after a big hit but then sat in the second half. His ribs/chest were likely hurting, but a very dejected Brees still kept his helmet on while Jameis Winston entered the game. After the game, Brees cited “cumulative” issues as the reason he removed himself. There are no details, but a throwing shoulder issue, a rib injury that prevents full torso rotation and an aging arm may be the issues. In any case, don’t expect Brees to play next week against the Falcons. Get on Atlanta +7.5, as the line is likely to move below the TD mark as news of Brees gets out.
2. Matt Stafford – According to video, the Lions QB suffered an injury to his thumb. He likely has an injury to his throwing thumb ulnar collateral ligament, but he played through it. Brees required surgery last season to repair his UCL injury, but Stafford’s UCL injury is not a complete tear. His injury should be minor, and he should be able to play through it effectively. Some books had Detroit at +2, while others were waiting for QB info before posting lines. Expect the line to shift to the Lions as the favorite when the Panthers’ injury status becomes apparent (see next).
3. Teddy Bridgewater – The Panthers QB left the game with five minutes to go yesterday. It looks like he suffered a mild right knee MCL sprain. This is not the knee with multiple torn ligaments that he dislocated in the past. A MRI will confirm the injury as mild, but he is likely to miss practice time. He might be able to play through like Big Ben has this week with similar injury, but the two have different styles. The concern about Bridgewater and the reassuring news about Stafford will likely have the line move towards pick or even favor Detroit.
4. Christian McCaffrey – The Panthers RB didn’t play this week but is still worth discussing. My belief is that he could have played, but his team wants to preserve their franchise player long term. They previously held him out until his ankle was fully healthy, and they are likely to do the same here with his AC joint sprain. If so, McCaffrey could miss this coming week too. If the Panthers choose to remain super conservative, it is possible that they hold him out through the Week 13 bye.
5. Davante Adams – The Packers star WR fought through an ankle injury to return to catch a TD pass late. He continued to favor the ankle some, but there is no expectation of a long term or significant injury right now. He could miss some practice time, however.
6. JaMycal Hasty – The 49ers injury woes continue. Hasty will be the fourth running back currently on injured reserve. He suffered an apparent clavicle fracture and will miss at least until December. Raheem Mostert (ankle), Tevin Coleman (knee) and Jeff Wilson, Jr. (calf) are all on IR as well. The only good news is that, with this week’s bye, one or two of these San Francisco running backs should be back for Week 12.
7. John Brown – The Bills wideout has been dealing with knee issues, but left with an apparent mild right high ankle sprain yesterday. He did not return, but with the bye this week, he may not have to miss game time.
8. Nick Boyle – The season is over for the Ravens TE, who has a major right knee injury. According to video, he has a multi-ligament knee injury that could require surgery. This type of injury may even affect the start of his 2021 season.
9. Corey Peters – The Cardinals nose tackle’s season is over. According to video, he has a major a patella tendon rupture in his right knee and will require surgery. This is a major blow to the Arizona defense, who will now be missing five of eight rostered defensive linemen. With the Seahawks defensive issues, expect a high scoring game Thursday, where the already-high total may rise further still.
10. Andrew Whitworth – The Rams have been among the healthiest teams this season, but they suffered a major blow with their left tackle now out, perhaps for the rest of the season. According to video, he was leg whipped and suffered a significant MCL sprain/tear and PCL sprain. The hope is he can avoid surgery, but his season is in jeopardy.
Check out the ProFootballDoc podcast on OutKick, and go to www.profootballdoc.com for evolving injury news.