Play on the Total in Phillies vs. Padres Game 2

Phillies vs. Padres, Game 2, 4:45 ET

Game 1 went the opposite direction that I thought it would, but I think we can recapture a game here for the Padres as they look to even up the series. The Padres lost the opener against the Dodgers, so don’t be surprised if they come back in this series. I’m not saying that they will win it for sure, more that it is just one game.

Aaron Nola is taking over where Zack Wheeler left off yesterday. Nola had a really nice campaign this year and is going to continue working toward the World Series now. Nola has been slightly better on the road this year, but it isn’t ridiculously better. It is only about a half run better than at home. One note on that though is in his last five road starts, he has allowed 16 earned runs. That goes back to the end of August, and he seems to have made the necessary adjustments. He does pitch better in day starts than night games by almost a full run. Perhaps most impressive though is that he hasn’t allowed an earned run in the entire month of October. That includes two postseason starts where he has gone at least six innings in both. He did face the Padres once already this season with a 1-0 loss where he pitched seven innings and allowed just one earned run.

Blake Snell started the season looking like a guy that didn’t deserve to be on a Major League roster. Then, the calendar switched over to July and he looked like a pitcher that you’d want to start in the playoffs. Snell covered 17 starts since July and has allowed 26 earned runs over 92.2 innings. That is good for roughly a 2.50 ERA since July. He did face Philadelphia twice, both times were before the calendar change I’ve talked about and he only covered 9.1 innings and allowed seven earned runs in those games. The Padres lost both games. Over his past four home starts, he has allowed just two earned runs over 23.1 innings.

Both pitchers are throwing very well right now, and at least in these first two games, I think the pitchers have the edge here. I’m going to take the under 7 in this game at -120. Yesterday I tried to take a side instead of the more obvious play – an under where there were only two runs scored in the game. Hopefully, today is a similar outcome.

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Written by David Troy

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